Villian is a TAG

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($568)
BB ($2681.06)
UTG ($576)
MP ($1877.10)
CO ($576.10)
Hero ($580.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, T. SB posts a blind of $3.
2 folds, CO raises to $25, Hero raises to $70, 2 folds, CO calls $45.

Flop: ($149) 8, 9, 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $100, CO raises to $282.6, Hero calls $182.60.

Turn: ($714.20) A (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

River: ($714.20) 5 (2 players)
CO pushes for 223, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $714.20


Looking back on it now, it seems like a very easy flop fold.

I almost pushed the turn, as I felt KK-JJ makes up a decent % of his range, but so do set hands. Then again, I am getting good money on a bluff (only has to work like 20-25% of the time for a pure bluff), plus I have usually maybe 9 outs on average if I am behind. Hmm, seems like the play is to push. Anyone agree?

River seems like an easy fold to me, as I can't think of much I beat.

I think its either push/fold on the flop because we want to see all 5 for sure if the money were to get all in..

I think the flop's a fold as well.


as for the turn, that's pretty tough... just because it's getting back to him at 4:1 if you do push. He probably calls a lot, but then again, you don't have to fold him that often either. I think the turn might be thin either way. Fold the flop. maybe push, but probably fold.

I think villians range here is 77+. After he raises to 300, he is seeing sd since he is pot commiting himself. My equity vs his range is ~35%. I would be risking 510 to win 1160. That's not enough.

If we had more money behind, that may be the play, since I likely fold out the non set hands.

Aren't we pretty likely to see all 5 with just a flop call?
A call here by us is a little worrisome to the villain, and there are very few turn cards that he could really like if he's ahead.

Thought on this, if you're willing to call this, does this mean you're only risking a marginal $223 in this situation? What were you planning to do on the turn if the ace didn't pop? say a 2 falls.

check flop?

Yeah I was very suprised by Villains turn action..I figure he jams the turn most of the time, which is why I think calling isn't an option on the flop

He may have realized he can't fold so he'll check an apparent scare card in order to induce a bluff. Hero usually shouldn't have an ace here but may be inclined to bet it

This hand looks a lot like AA

Hmm... I'd say more than half the deck makes him not want to open-push the turn.

JJ-AA, any paint that villain doesn't hold slows him up because hero could now have a set. A set with 77-99 now has to think about being oversetted. A 6 or 10 slows up both ranges as well for obvious reasons (except a 10 when villain has JJ of course). And with both ranges, especially in the case where villain holds a set, it would probably make more sense for villain to plan a check-raise on the turn because the only hand that calls an open-push on the turn is one that beats him, and all hands behind to him are drawing thin except for just one hand (which happens to be screech's). Seems like good cards for him to open-push are any card 5 or below or a card that gives him a set if he's holding JJ-AA (also a 10 for JJ). And even if he hits a set with pocket paint, there's a good chance he goes for a c-r.

I agree... I would push this flop, but that's the high variance play. Your ahead enough to make it profitable and if he slowplayed a big overpair you have 10 outs. If your properly bankrolled for 3-6 NL I think pushing is far superior. If your taking a shot, I would call and fold the turn. As played, I would fold the turn. Your basically just drawing bc you feel 10-10 is no good.

You think villain is c/r this flop with air, maybe 66, often enough to make a push profitable?
Seems to me the main rationale for pushing the flop is if we think we can make the villain fold an overpair sometimes. Occasionally a villain might be doing this with air/weaker hand, but given that the c/r has to commit him to the hand, it seems like it would be such a rare occurrence that we don't give it much weight at all when considering a flop push.

Yeah, I hadn't really realized the stack sizes if I called. I would have called teh remaining 2 something, so I should have just pushed the flop when my equity was higher.



Yeah, a high variance losing play. What range do you put villian on? Of that range what do I beat?

I do think that a push is better than how I played it, I just think in retrospect a fold is clearly best.



I konw you aren't advocating a flop push, I just wanted to highlight that part. The main problem with a push is that villian has pot committed himself when his range is 95% sets or overpairs. I don't fold a better hand ever. If stacks were deeper, a push may be the correct play.

I agree.

To be honest, I wasn't totally sure about this hand from the time I started commenting - actually I was trying to figure that out myself by taking more of a questioning line. I do think the chances of us seeing the river for free are fairly high on this hand if we flat call, but you and Scott are totally on-point regarding the stack size situation - we are committing ourselves by calling here, so the clear choice here is to fold.

Although I am not sure about one tangential point - it seems like you think a flop push is better than a flat call because your equity is higher on the flop. While that's true, if you think about how often the villain checks the turn to you and allows you to peel for free, it seems to me that often you really only need to call the 182 for the same flop equity you would get by pushing, especially since it is pretty clear that a push gives you no additional fold equity. But this is really just quibbling...

Interesting point.

I think villian would check the turn with QQ-TT, since my flop call shows so much strength. That makes up about 1/3 of his range. But he will occassionally bet these hands on the turn too, so lets say 1/4 of the time he checks behind. Someone do math because it's a beautiful day and I just started drinking.