Ok, I'm in the BB with QQ, Villain in SB. Villain (SB) was playing pretty loose, raising a lot of hands and leading out draws. I saw him bluff the river once and was the largest stack at the table. I also saw him push his entire stack before when the pot was really small. I had only been at the table about 30 minutes when this hand came about. Villain was definitely very LAG from what I saw.

Stack sizes:
UTG: $65
CO: $38.80
Button: $144.60
SB: $287.40
BB: $137.10

Pre-flop: (5 players)
2 folds, Button calls, SB raises to $5, BB raises to $15, Button folds, SB raises all-in $281.9, BB ???.

Is my pre flop raise ok? Do we call here or are we almost always up against AA/KK with a raise like this? Should we just throw it away knowing we only risked 15 dollars? Pretty stumped with this one so let me know guys.

Thanks,
Billy

I fold here, giving Villain credit. Some loose players love to cultivate their image so that you think they don't know the difference between $10 and $280. You may call here thinking, 'well, this is a huge overbet...and he's pretty goddamn loose...so I've gotta call.' He knows you like your hand, he knows you think he's crazy, so he's hoping to get you to shove them all in.

like that analysis, even if he has AK ur only even,

It does also depend on if he seems to be actually thinking like this or is just attacking and playin to fast with something like JJ or AQ suited or lower even. He also might think you are just playing back at him cause of your lag read on him. You would have to decide if he was thinking about his own image or not. and if he realized he was lag or if he was just f-in around.

I refuse to play a monster pot with QQ all in pre unless, by some miracle from god I know the guy is a piece of garbage. QQ isn't a good hand when you are facing an all in...pushing with it is better than calling with it, but even still I don't like putting a ton of chips in the pot pre with QQ.

I think you made a good fold, if he was raising a ton of pots and playing very loose you're going to have a chance to win back your chips and then some.

I'd say the range here is something like:

AA: 20%
KK: 10%
AK: 40%
QQ: 5%
JJ, TT: 5%
crap: 20%

Against that range, you're about 45% to win and you only need to be 44% to call, so I'd say it's OK. However, it's a really borderline decision and ultimately it comes down to your read of the player. If you think he actually appears smart and is just making some image plays, then it's a definite fold, whereas if he's been splashing around out of boredom or has gotten tilted, it's an easy call.

This is one of those decisions where if you call and you're right, you'll feel like a genius, and if you're wrong, you'll feel like an idiot, even though it was actually a borderline decision. I think ultimately, you have to make a read based on how "smart" he looked when he was playing smaller pots, and go with that. Ignore the overbets and focus on if he played decently when he actually had to show down hands.

Lot of great replies. Thanks guys. Anyone else have something to add?