UB 50/100 NL Hold'em

Random Player A is at seat 0 with $4648.
Hero is at seat 3 with $12034.50.
Random Player B is at seat 5 with $13425.
Random Player C is at seat 6 with $9100.
Mahatma is at seat 7 with $17187.
The button is at seat 5.

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kh Ac
UTG Folds, Hero raises to $350, Button folds, SB folds, BB (Mahatma) calls

Flop: ($750) 10c Kd 3s
Mahatma checks. Hero bets $500. Mahatma calls.

Turn: ($1750) 5h
Mahatma bets $1700. Hero calls.

River: ($5150) As
Mahatma goes all-in for $14587. Hero?

I am not hero in this hand, but I feel it should start a decent discussion of playing vs hyperlags like prahlad.

is folding even a consideration here?

Well, he will take this exact line with all of his sets and all of his straight draws, so yes, folding can be considered here. Just because he's very aggressive doesn't mean he doesn't ever make hands. He is a thinking player and not fos here very often. Raise preflop, bet flop, call pot sized turn bet lets him know we like our hand, and will then be less likely to try and push us off it.

I've seen the previous incantations of this thread and I do believe that folding is the superior option.

To add a little content, I think the fact that Hero's hand is pretty well defined by Prahlad makes this river overbet never a bluff, and always something better than AK.

I dont think that it's well defined at all. At least not well enough to assume that we have AK.

Why wouldnt he expect hero to raise the turn with AK against him?

Not raising doesnt make any sense to me, especially since he knows that we know he's nuts and will pay us off with a weaker king.


I think he's expecting us to have mid pair or top pair with a weaker kicker here more often than AK. And for those hands, the river bet seems uncallable.

Though i recall it being agreed almost unanimously on 2+2 that calling with something like 10J here is basically the same as calling with AK, since these are either sets+ or complete bluffs.

I posted this hand already.

edit: Yeah for other comments about this also see

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...c=58855&hl=

What? Prahlad's not going to pay off with a weaker king here ever. Prahlad is much more likely to stick his stack in as a bluff here than he is to call off chips, which is why calling the turn is better.

Our hand range is also not so well defined as to be only AK, but it is definitely in our range, as is A10. The point is this river ace is going to help our hand a lot most of the time, and Prahlad knows this, but shoves his stack in.

People initially think about this in terms of Prahlad and I generally think the problem is they odnt use the different levels of thinking.

Prahlad is uber aggressive to a sick degree but he is also crazy smart.

Do you not think he doenst have a good idea of what the hero has here? His hand range for hero is probably close to exact.

So if prahlad knows hero likely has an a or k why is he going to try to push a guy off?

fwiw this is almost an instafold.

You beat prahlad when you have the nuts on a nonobvious board..you lose to him on boards like this

I have to say, despite the consensus in the other thread that this was a call, I think it's probably a fold. Overbetting the river on a bluff against a player who called a pot-sized bet on the turn when a card comes that could just as easily have helped him as hurt him? That doesn't sound like something a smart player would do.

I'd say this looks like QJ or a good set here; I can't imagine we're ahead. I get that this guy has a reputation for pushing with air sometimes, but I'd think he'd do that in a situation where he has enough information on his opponent to know that he's weak. Not OOP after his opponent had just called a pot-sized bet in position on the turn.

easy call vs mahatma. I expect to win 47.86% of teh time.

Actually, the fact that so many people consider laying down top 2 makes this one of the easiest calls evre vs a smart player.



Yes!



No!

He is a very smart, very aggressive player. He knows he can rep the straight, and if he knows a lot of players won't call with a decent hand - most good players arent folding top 2 here, hes trying to push them off a hand like AQ - so he can profitably push with any 2. On party vs a random donk, this is closer to a fold then vs a high stakes rapper.

screech problem is that mahtma knows what players think about him as being uberaggressive.

Why is he going to attempt a bluff against a person who he know has at least 1 pair?

If he puts hero on an a or k (which im almost positive he would if he doest put him on ak)...pushing the nuts is by far the best option b/c he is going to get calls a lot from people who think thier 2 pair/set is good.

from a poker standpoint pushing with qj instead of value betting is so far superior an option


If mahtma was a rock pushing this could be a good bluff as he could expect the hero to fold more often. But as a uberlag player bluffing in this situation is a -ev scenerio

The fact that his push may mean he has less than top 2 is what makes him good. The board is an excellent one to bluff at, since most players will realize that QJ is a good possibility. Add that to the fact that he knows a good player cant call with AQ, or even ahve a very hard time calling with AK or AT, makes pushing +EV, regardless of his cards, and regardless of the outcome.

I agree that pushing here with the nuts is a good play, but it only works (at high levels anyway) if you push here with hands that aren't the nuts as well.

with his type of style, I would imagine that he give the impression that he bets this with less than top 2 on a board like this, but in reality he does not. If we take the board down about 3-5 cards, I think it makes more sense to bet into this with less than top 2 than given this board. Knowing that people are looking to play big hands for big pots against him means that he's probably not going to push this board often w/o a set because our hero will likely have a big hand.

Yeah, I think you're right.

Scott,

I just read this hand over at 2+2. Does it change your mind at all?

No, not really. Like I said, i think it makes more sense to bet this board w/ air and big hands because you'll get a bigger fold/call ratio than on the board for this hand. there's just gonna be fewer 2pair+ hands in this type of board than the other.

What about this hands makes you feel differently?

i agree with scott...the board on 2+2 isnt exceptionally scary in terms of mahatmas holdings. A bluff is a lot better on that board then on this board...

The 2+2 board is a good board to bluff at...If op on that board doesnt have an or a weak ace then he folds. This board fits well with any range for hero and so mahatma would have to be steaming to bluff at it.

On this board i think u lose 90% of the time

This is all semantics. He does stuff that I think even he doesn't understand. If you think this is an easy call, he will break you sooner or later. If you think this is an easy fold, he will break you sooner or later. In one of the CardRunner video's Green Plastic spoke about how he has been able to do so well as Prahlad while nobody else has. He basically said it's a guessing game b/c he is so agressive and plays air, pairs, two pairs, sets, nuts all in the exact same way. He mentioned that he has been guessing right lately, but knows that he will make mistakes sooner or later. Talking about his range is pointless b/c you can't really put him on hands. If you can, I'll take 50% of your action in the 200-400NL on Prima