MrNiceGuy
Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 9:16 AM
QUOTE (Abbaddabba @ Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 3:05 PM)

If i thought someone was dumb enough to go 20 bets with less than QQ on that board, i cant see 10 more changing anything.
Anything past 6 with less than a straight and he's pretty much braindead... unless he saw you acting as erratic as you would have had to have seen him act to make it 20 bets with top set.
http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...c=38317&hl=I guess it was "only" about 15 bets on the turn before he was all-in.
But at the table, I remember that every time he made another reraise on the turn, it put more doubt into my mind as to whether my read on the flop had been correct. (When the turn card first showed up, I had almost no doubt that I was still ahead, and I was almost certain villain had JJ). But every bet put a little more doubt in my mind, and I was less sure of myself. Of course, once we were down to only a few bets each, it didn't matter, as anyboday who's going to go ten or more bets for 4/5's of his chips is probably willing to put them all-in.
But if we'd have each had 100 BB's in front of us, I'm sure that eventually I would have felt less than 50% sure that I was winning, which is in principle where I should slow down. (At some point I'd decide that his willingness to put in, I don't know, $200 on the turn (when I could easily have AK or QQ) would have been enough information for me to second-guess my flop read and decide I was no longer better than even-money to have the best hand, in my mind).
I guess technically I should bet until I'm only about 35% confident that I'm ahead, since I was still 23% to win if he had what I felt was the most likely hand he could have that would beat me (AK), while he was only 2% to win if he had what I felt was the most likely hand he was behind with (JJ).
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Sorry for my long-windedness, but I thought this was an interesting topic that doesn't get much discussion; when you have a non-nut hand, but you are not sure about villain's competence, villain keeps reraising, and there's no cap on raises, how should you determine how far to go until you slow down?
Of course, this is an extremely rare situation (I only recall playing one other hand that was kind of like this situation; I think I was playing 4/8 and I was OOP w/ J9 against one opponent on a board of JT9J. My opponent had 4-bet the flop, which had convinced me that I was beat (almost certainly by a straight, possibly by JT or a set), and I was going to c/f the turn UI. But, when I filled up the turn, I c/r'd, and my opponent 3-bet, and then he 5-bet. I was starting to wonder at that point, but I still thought he probably had the straight, so I 6-bet, and he just called, so then I was 99% sure I had him. And then the river was a T, and he groaned, called my bet, and mucked.
So I didn't have to make the decision that hand, but if he had 7-bet I'd have had a decision to make (I remember thinking at the time that I might just have called the 7-bet, since I thought had made it pretty clear that I could beat any straight with my 6-bet, and really, with my 4-bet). But in this case, I felt my opponent was reasonably competent, and that at some point, he'd recognize that I was probably full.
But, if you get in these rare situations against incompetent players who appear to be only playing their own hand, stopping too early can be a very costly decision, so I think it's worth at least being aware of these situations.