.25/.50 ...$50NL 6-handed on Party...

Hero has $25
Villian has me covered

Read: Villian just sat down

Hero dealt Ah,A in SB

UTG - Villian calls, UTG + 1 -Hero raises to $2.5, fold, fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG - Villian calls

Pot: $10

Flop: 9c, 6h, 7h

SB check, BB check, Villian checks, Hero bets $6.5, SB folds, BB folds, villian goes all-in for $22.5, Hero calls?

Costs me $16 to win $39...so I'm getting almost 2.5 - 1...the board is somewhat coordinated but there are a number of hands that might make this same move that I'm ahead of 1010, JJ, QQ, A9, Jh10h, KhQh.

What do you guys think?

You're UTG+1, not the SB, right?

Auto-call here. You'd have to have a lot more chips behind before you could think about folding this.

I agree that this is a call, but I think this is a bit closer than you suggest.

Given odds, you need ~28% equity to make this a good call.

I think a reasonable range of hands here for the villain would be
10x hearts where x = K thru 9
45h
89h
67
97
108
66, 77, 99

Against this range, we are only at ~22% equity.
If we reduce the range so villain is only playing suited connectors and 1-gappers, our equity increases to ~24%.

If we expand it, however, to include JJ-KK, then our equity is far above what we need it to be and it truly becomes autocall.

I don't think JJ-KK is too likely since villain open-limped, but I also think at this level you find people making plays like this with just a flush draw or just an OESD. Given that we are close to our required equity already even if we discount JJ-KK and OESD only and flush draw only for the villain's hand range, I call here.

I also bet more on the flop. In this case it really doesn't matter because the villain pushed. If you bet more and he pushed, you'd still call. But the board is very draw heavy and with three other players in, I'd be looking to charge the max.

How about J9? K9? A9? T9? T7? 75? If you think those kind of hands never make this play at this level, you're crazy. I'd give us about 55% equity against a likely range for villian here.

Yeah ok, sure.
I'm being a bit conservative here given that
1) We have no reads
2) Villain is UTG

I'm fine with expanding the range here to include most of your above hands, but probably only of the heart suited variety (except for T9 and T7). Given that, our equity increases but not by that much. I lump in 75 with the likelihood of this being just a pure OESD or flush draw (# outs about the same) which balances out the discounted likelihood of this being JJ-KK.

I don't doubt that my initial equity calculation is on the conservative side, but 55% equity is kind of pushing it, I think.