Its nearing the end of the sixth level of a pretty major tournamentin my area. Blinds are 150/300 and I have 11500 chips. villain has about 12000.

I am in the SB. It folds around to CO who raises to 1000. I had a pretty strong tell on this guy that he had a junk hand and was stealing. I was planning on reraising him regardless of my cards. However, the Button(villain) calls the 1000.

From what I could tell, the villain is a pretty solid TAG. He hadn't shown down many hands. I had seen him reraise a late position raiser preflop on 3 occasions and take the pot down uncontested, but I never got to see his cards. I think he had only smooth called a raise once or twice in teh tourney, and didn't show down either time.

My table image is a cautious TAG. I'd been staying out of big pots and slowly building my stack. I had yet to reraise preflop at any time during the tournament, and had only called a raise once. I'd been entering the pot with raises and then continuation bets but I hadn't shown down many hands.


Anyway, Since I was pretty sure CO had air, this seemed like a perfect spot for a squeeze play. I reraise to 4000 with QT offsuit. CO folds, our villain asks me how much I have left (about 7500), and then smooth calls 3000 with little deliberation.



Flop comes down Q84 rainbow.



Our villain is a statue, no information to be gained from his posture or actions.


What is our play?

First of all, I know you already acknowledged that this was a "play gone wrong," but I think that this is a very poor squeeze play. Let's assume that CO has rags, villain still probably has a pretty decent hand to be calling 1000. By raising to 4000 you are laying him over 2 to 1, and that's IF the big blind and cutoff both fold. I don't see you taking down this pot with a bet of 4000 here. Go all in, or fold.


As it plays on the flop, I think your best bet is to move all-in.

I disagree. Even getting 2 to 1, villain has to put in 1/3 of his stack here. Plus, from a tight player, he has to give me credit for a big hand (QQ minimum),and he doesn't have implied odds for set value. I think if I raise more, it LOOKS like a steal.

Putting myself in his shoes, I'm calling 1000 with 99 TT JJ and QQ (might reraise any of those given the circumstances) and I'm folding to a re-raise to 4k from a tight player in the blinds.

that, and perhaps AK/AQ are likely his range, so your options seem straightforward.
either check/fold, or check/all-in. if you push all-in, he's only calling you with AQ, 88 or QQ. but if you check, he may well put you on a similar range, and push with 99-JJ as well.

depending on chip stacks, payouts, etc etc, you can cautiously check/fold here, or ballsily check/raise.

advice is given by a person who only plays full-ring LHE cash games, and may well be completely absurd for anyone with a tiny amount of tournament knowledge

I don't see villain smooth-calling 1000 with 99-QQ very often there. I think it's even less likely that he calls 1000 and folds to a reraise of 3000 getting over 2-1 with that range of hands.

Structure is slow. 7500 starting chips starting at 25/25 and 30 minute levels.


It is the last hand of the sixth level with the blinds going to 200/400 next level. (300/600, 4/8, 5/1, 7/15, 1/2 are the next 5 levels with small antes coming into play) if I check/fold, I have 7500 chips left.

IMO you are putting villain on a ridiculously tight set of hands if you think his range is 99-QQ and AQ+. Hero is laying him over 2-1 here.

you have to take into account chip stacks though. The table was playing fairly tight, and 4000 was a huge bet. his 2-1 pot odds mean nothing when he pretty much has to put me on AA KK or QQ. I'd played a straightforward TAG game to this point, he really would have no reason to put me on a resteal here unless I am giving off a massive tell. This was the first time I'd reraised preflop in 3 hours of play.

i don't mean his literal range, but the range of hands that matter. any hand outside that range, and hero at least wins the pot, and probably wins either exactly the current pot, or more if he gets tricky.

maybe the range is more like 66-QQ, KQs, AJs. AQ, AK, i dunno

I think, prior to his calling my reraise, that you can throw in QJs and maybe 55-44. maybe AA or KK if he is being tricky but I'd seen him reraise preflop 3 times, so I don't think he is prone to slowplaying big hands.

I think this was a poorly played squeeze. The knuckler is right, if you wanted to pull this off 4000 wasn't enough. You had to push.

With that flop I think you have to get it all-in. Push probably won't be as profitable as only hands that have you beat will call. Check, if he bets, push. If he checks behind, push the turn.

I think the squeeze wasn't well thought out. When button (who you described as tight) called the raise, I think you have to give up on it. If you really thought button was full of it, wouldn't he be reraising to try and take the pot down right there? The squeeze play is MUCH more successful against limpers. People who limp are announcing a weaker hand, people who raise or call a raise are announcing superior hands.

I think the real question here is why bother making this play at all? Even if you know the CO is full of it, what's the point of risking 1/3 of our stack making a play with a junk hand waaaaaaay out of position. As it turns out you're lucky only the button called, but what if the CO had called as well?

Since you describe the structure as slow, there's really no reason to make this play against a TAG player on the button. You're just setting yourself up for disaster, honestly.

I know you said your table image was TAG, but are you sure everyone else at this tournament is paying as much attention as you are? If not, there's no way the button can "only put you on QQ+"

make ambiguous topic titles; get less biased replies.

I have nothing to add.
I don't make moves like this.

Precisely because players don't fold for 3000 more often enough.
They are silly that way.

If this is the tournament I'm thinking of it's a $1500 buyin event, where the majority of entrants won their seats in $50 satellites, but a good percentage paid full price (or bought their seat from a satellite winner)...

3000 is a good enough raise here to get rid of the cutoff and will get rid of everything but a very sneakily played AA or KK from the button.

then I really have nothing to add.

Personally, I think its a good spot for a squeeze play, but only if button is capable of folding hands..Judged by your description, it seems like it..But what I don't like is the re raise to 4000..Like others have said, I think giving him 2: 1 is a mistake here, and you need to just jam PF..Also, when you were deciding, you had to think about what would happen if he did call..You are then OOP and in a tough spot...

With the line you took, I think you have to follow through and jam the flop..

Good attempt though, I liked your thought process

No, you don't jam the pot - you need to leave yourself an out in case he does have a big hand....4k (1/3 his stack) is big enough to get him to fold virtually any speculative hand.

If he does call you simply know you have to hit your hand HARD to continue...top pair is not hard enough.

So your recomending a C/F on the flop?

very tough, but yes...except for JJ and AK I can't see you having a better hand...and, if he has JJ or TT or AK, if he's played this tight/passively, it's a good chance you'll get a free showdown anyway.

Unless you detect some type of weakness in his bet (by size or a tell) I'd likely fold.

This smells so much like AA or KK I'm getting hives.

what do we make of him asking how much hero has left?

to me, if he's decent, he's no longer calling for a set

does he want hero to think that he is on some sort of AQs AK 77 hand, and not a made premium pair though?

I agree, there's no way he's calling to flop a set.

He MIGHT be calling with something like 99 thinking it may hold up, but:

a. I doubt it
b. you're getting a free showdown if he is

He is glad to play a premium pair in position, let others be aggressive, and let them think the exact hands you suggest.

This is a big buy-in event. Every player at the table is solid, smart, and very cautious to this point. Like I said, this raise to 4000 was a huge bet in the context of the table. Online, or in a smaller buyin event, I would never even think of doing this.

I fold preflop. The reason is simply because I have no position if I get called. Position is huge, as you can tell. You have to do a lot more guess work. For me, I think checking here is ok. See what your opponent does. My guess is you're up against AK or a small PP.

Small PP calling 3000 raise?

****************

Dubey,

yeah, Shpaget set me straight on buy in. to which i promptly said, I have nothing to add

i'm the same, except that his asking of how much we have left could be taken to mean AA. most players wouldn't be ballsy enough to ask that kind of question with AA, but if he's real tricky, perhaps he's doing that both for information (do you have enough left to fold if he pushes there) and to disguise his hand.

i think he has AA.

That's my thinking - he wants all your chips and wants to see if you're committed...if he thinks you'll call off the rest of your chips he pushes...if he thinks you have enough chips to fold, he won't.

CO raises to 3.3 BB, button CALLS with AA???

That's a play I rarely see. Can he just smell that hero will put on a squeeze play? Calling 1000 from the button is giving SB and BB good odds to call with any semi-decent hand. I think AA reraises from button here. I think villain's most likely holding is AK.

Not after the second call...


If the table has been playing tight the button can easily call a standard raise here, with AA, assuming the blinds will fold, as they may have behaved in previous hands.

OR...remember, this is live...what if our hero had a tell that indicated to the button that he was going to bet? You'd be surprised the number of people I see, even in these $1000-$1500 buyin events, that are loading up in advance...all you have to do is look downstream out of the corner of your eye.

Just speculating...

Haha okay well I agree that it's possible. In my opinion though, QT is ahead on this flop more often than not. I don't think that you should check/fold top pair right off the flop here. You don't have enough chips to make a bet less than all-in, so I say push.

I think villain pushes all in to the 3000 raise if he has AA or KK, and either pushes or folds TT-QQ. He calls most often with AJ-AK.