Middle stages of MTT
35 left
top 20 pay

Play is 8 handed
New table (seen 5 hands)
blinds 300-600

Hero is button with Jh10h

UTG (9000) limps
EP folds
MP1 (17200) limps
MP2 (13700) limps
CO folds
Hero (11400) limps
SB folds
BB (3100) checks

Pot: 3300

Flop: 9h 5h 2h

BB checks
UTG is all-in for 8400
MP1 is all-in for 16600
MP2 folds
Hero ?

Very limited information on table. UTG appears tight, MP1 lag-donkish, but that is with 5 hands so it is hardly conclusive.

Fold

UTG may be bluffing, but mp1 is not. He thinks he has the best hand right now. He may be wrong, but he has you covered.

With this much heat, I don't like the J high flush much. Even if you are ahead, you are against redraws to an Ace and a set trying to make a boat. So either you are ahead or up against to powerfun draws. I would let it go.

Well, you have 4th nuts, but you could be PRETTTTTY sure no one is going to simply PUSH with the nut flush (perhaps a set, nut flush draw, etc...), so you really only have to worry about MP1. He could easily have a ragged two pair (since you said he's lag-donkish) or any pair, nut flush draw...


I think if you call here you'll have to dodge a few bullets, but I think it's a call. The odds of two people flopping a flush are... anyone? anyone?


I'd call, but I'm sure some people wouldn't.

I call quick.


M ~ 10 with a chance to have ~33k.

5 hands isn't enough time to make any type of read, so they are basically both unknown.

The UTG all-in is strange - if he hit the flush, why isn't he value betting the flush with a pot sized bet? Reads like a naked Ah.

The MP1 all-in is more worrisome. He's not getting the right odds to draw to a flush so either he has the flush or a set is my guess.

M=10 is my line in the sand - you still have more than that if you fold, so I very reluctantly fold.

What flush is beating us? Ok the read on UTG appears to be the naked Ace of hearts...MP1, what is he limping with that he has the K or Q of hearts and another heart, unless both of them...Thats the only hand I can possibly see that we are behind here..King 8 and Queen 8s we can eliminate from his range here, I would think..

So..Would it be safe to put him on a set? 22 and 55 very good possibility...If thats the case, and we up against a naked ace/set, we are 45/25/30 to take it all down...

Now its your call whether or not you want to gamble given that range..If you can find bigger edges, fold...Personally, the chance to get to 30K+ would be too big of an edge for me to pass up..I'd call

Edit: Another plausible scenario would be if UTG had the set and MP1 flopped the Ace high flush..That would really suck lol

MP1's push does not smell of a Ace flush to me.
KhQh would be one hand, but that's 2 exact cards

A lower flush or set or sometimes just an overpair hoping to isolate a Ah UTG move. We have to factor something in for junk.

anyway, even against reasonable hands, I take the gamble at this stage.

Two hands beat you. When calling a hand like this, flopping a great flop and thinking of laying it down? Most likely against 2pair/set and Ahx. If you lose you lose. But I would never fold in this spot.

I'm calling everytime. Who cares about getting in the money. You are very likely ahead and if not, screw this tourney.

assuming you are ahead here and against hands like a naked ace and a set- you are about 42% to win. So pot odds justify a call. But you are still 58% to lose, assuming you are ahead at all. With an M over 10 I still say fold, but I don't blame the callers.

I fold because I prefer to chip away for little pots instead of making a lot of big confrontations. I think I can pick up enough orphan pots to keep alive that I don't need to gamble when I am probably 58% to lose.

I don't find a lot of orphan pots deep into MTT"s.

I would not say we are at a chip away stage here.

Yeah just reread the op. With 35 players left I might gamble here. It is close.

If we aren't calling here, why are we limping PF?

Fold preflop if you aren't calling here.

I'd call it. The initial overbet doesn't smell like a big flush at all. It's likely something vulnerable to a flush draw like a small flush, a set, or two pair. If you already have reason to believe that MP1 is lag/donkish, then I'd say his pushing range here is probably (conservatively) any flush or set, and against that range, you're ahead.

Since you're winning in the hand over 50% of the time, you have to take the gamble here, and hope your hand is good/holds up. If you lose, just chalk it up to bad luck. C'est la vie.

I don't know where you calculate "two hands".

I count 18 hands that beat you (Qx, Kx, Ax)....and, to be realistic, 8 hands (any Ax flush, and KhQh, maybe even Qh8h)...of the realistic flushes that they could have also flopped that you beat...6h7h, 7h8h, 6h8h....you don't think they have 8h3h do you? And I doubt they have Qh4h.

There are 28 total ways you're up against a flopped flush, and you only beat 10 of them.

UTG either has a set, two pair or a non-ace flush, MP likely has the flush, and, yeah, could have something like Ah9x, but in most cases he likely has you beat.

Only a small percentage of time are you ahead of both hands here...and when you are ahead of both hands, your hand holds up only about 50% of the time, if that much.

The problem is, if you're behind, you're dead...no redraws, except for the amazing runner runner to the sf.

And I really don't think you're ahead more than 50% of the time here...and when you are ahead you lose another 50% of the time....at least. I think you take this pot barely 25% of the time by the time the river comes.

I meant we have the 4th nuts, therefore only 3 hands beat us. The combinations dont matter, because Q2h and Q3h, still equate to the same thing. Its unrealistic to flop a made hand like we have, and assume someone has a better one. Plus if we were behind...we're drawing to a runner runner str8 flush.

I'd call it because our M is so low and because of the point below:



Those are the most likely reads. And if you are coolered, you are coolered and it is just not your tournament.

Doesn't help that you are in a limped pot, but with a J high flush at this stage in the tourney, you gotta think your hand is good here.

It might be different if you had 7h4h or something like that, but you only flop a flush every so often that when you do, you should play it aggressively.

Umm...CALLING all your chips after two all-ins isn't aggressive.

Anyway, let's say you're not against a higher flush, but you are indeed against a set (does anyone here honestly think you're against two pair???) and an Ah draw.

That means you're about a 55:45 dog, collectively....that's your BEST-case scenario here (of all the likely scenarios)...do you think you're against two lower flushes?

Your worst-case scenario (and at LEAST as likely as the above one) is you are against a higher flush and drawing dead to less than 1% chance of winning.

When in doubt, follow this simple rule - Don't go broke in an unraised pot.

now you're sounding like Rocketwadster.
something from a book.

pot is huge now.
who cares if it was raised or not.
Our M is low and although several flushes beat us, several hands don't.
No one should put us on a flopped flush.
Two Pair could easily push this, if laggy especially.

folding here is pretty insane.

Nobody has any reason to put you on a flopped flush because, aside from your pf limp, you haven't acted yet.

You, however, have the information of two all-ins ahead of you to refine their range of hands...and a flopped flush falls very squarely in that range.

I don't care if two-pair is capable of pushing this...do you honestly think that UTG or MP1 limped with 95, 92 or 52????????

They don't have two-pair...even in a freeroll.

Let's take a look at their likely hands:

99 - 3 ways
55 - 3 ways
22 - 3 ways (all three have about 35% chance of winning)
Ahx - unknown...probably cut off at AT..12 ways tops? (better than 30% chance of winning)

Made flush that beats you - 18 ways
Made flush that you beat - 10 ways

Likely candidates of made flushes:

Ax - 7 ways
Kx - 6 way - anything other than KQ may be a stretch, depending on player
Q8 - 1 way (a stretch)

87 - 1 way
86 - 1 way
76 - 1 way

The rest (Q3, 84, etc) I'm giving no weight - so up to 14 ways you're drawing dead, 3 ways you're a lock (against one of the two opponents)

I'm giving no weight to a Kh or Qh flush draw.

I don't think the 2nd guys folds a set (though I suppose he could fold 22).


Basically, roughly 1/3 -2/5 of the time you are behind and drawing dead (possibly worse)...and those times you are ahead, you lose more than 50% of the time.

On your best day you're a 2:1 dog against their range of hands, to call off all your chips.




When someone else wins 10 WSOP bracelets I'll let them tell me Brunson is wrong.

The pot is huge only because of two all-ins from early position pf limpers, not because of any massaging...if the pot had been raised by them, or anyone else, pf you could shrink their range and, possibly, be more comfortable, and profitable, calling. The bottom line is, you've commited nothing to this pot but a puny pf limp.

I lead push here, I push against one all-in...against two I'm dead.

I haven't seen anyone talk about it yet, but don't we have to factor into the equation that even if we lose to UTG, we can still beat MP for some of the pot? For that reason alone, I think this is a call, we sort of have an insurance thing going.

If UTG has Ah, and a heart comes, we might lose that main pot, but still take the side. Same happens if UTG has a set and boats up while MP has Ah.

In any event, I'd say UTG has a set, and MP has a low flush, something like 6h7h, so it's a call.

Side pot not significant enough to consider - first, if you do win it it only leaves you with 6k, and second, in all likelihood it's the hand of the larger stack, the second all-in, that you are more worried about.

Shp,

we're getting 2:1
would you call in a cash game?

most people do not push flopped flushes.
they are silly slow players.

in order to have a legitimate chance to hit the Final Table, this is a easy gamble.

otherwise, we look to land in 21st place.


while the idea of not going broke in unraised pots has a swell ring to it, the fact someone has won 10 bracelets does nottake away from my thougt that it was used inappropritely here. We're not over playing something like TPwK. We have a huge pot and a need to gamble.

Again I go back to the samething I mention often. I think the chance to pick up 22K by stealing pots later is over rated. Sometimes you have to make calls.

I'd probably make this call in a heartbeat. if I'm beat I'm beat. If someone catches their out so be it, but that's a lot of chips to let go of when we flop a J-high flush. This is my issue with by the book players, too much by the book and not enough cajones to risk your stack. If you're gonna play a tourney to win, then why play if you're not willing to risk your stack? There's gonna be plenty of times that your stack is going to be at risk, so why not risk it with a hand like this?

Valid points - a cash game it's very close...we're getting 2:1 on the payout and I think were 2:1 against their range, but maybe not quite....I can comfortably fold this in a cash game too.

I would agree in most cases about your flopped flush slow play assessment, but not here...I think a non-ace flush definitely pushes here, and the 2nd guy probably pushes with any flush, ace or not.

Now, if I'm wrong on my range I'm wrong, and then it's a call.

Eliminate Ahkh, AhQh (because the guy would raise, not limp) and eliminate Khxh that isn't KQ, because the players are a little tight, and it's an easy call.

I have folded a flopped flush in a cash game...but it was 8 high, not jack high (and jackass had 7 high)...I have also, with a jack high flush, pushed a queen high flush off a hand in a cash game.

Can we get some results here? Im curious and I think the discussion has died down as the consensus says call

Glad to see we got some good discussion on this.

I think calling was correct, but it is very close. UTG I could put on many hands, but probably a set, TP, a baby flush, or the naked Ah. All those hands I am way ahead of. MP1's all-in is a little more disturbing, but I think he has a set or a flush. I think if he has the nut flush he would just call UTG, so I discounted that. Kh-xh is plausible, but so is a smaller flush like 7h-6h. I think a set is just about as likely as a made flush. Remember I also thought MP1 was pretty loose, and I didn't exactly respect his play, so I thought he could have been making an extremely bizarre and incorrect all-in with a worse hand.

Anyway this is how it ended up:

UTG: 55
MP1: Qh 4h

The flush held

Being new to the table hurt us there because we couldn't put him on a limping range..I still think calling wasnt a bad play at all

Nah, calling was right. You knew you were ahead against UTG, and you were better than 50/50 against MP's raise. If he happened to have a good flush this time instead of a raggedy flush or a set, there's nothing you can do.

This is one of those hands that I personally call a "hand of fate". I think that if I limp with that hand, and get that flop I'm willing to go broke on it.