Before I answer the question, let's look at the following simulations where 7 8 is up against the following hands:

vs 2 2 53.48%
vs A K 41.92%
vs A 6 47.59%
vs A A 23.11%
vs 8 6 61.76%
vs A 8 34.35%

Now, it's 6000 to call and you could win 8400. So you are getting about 4 to 3 odds on your money. Factoring in all of Antonio's possible holdings it appears as though I was getting the right price in this situation.

I was in this hand and made a mistake. My thinking was that I could win the next hand if Antonio didn't have anything. I knew as I folded it was a mistake. I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible. It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible.

Antonio later told me that he had A 6 so while I was getting 1.4 to 1 odds, I ended up folding in a coinflip situation.

Hey, I got another one right, I must be a pro

My reasoning, as well as most of people in the question thread who said to call, was pretty much what you said. You've got a hand that is probably not much worse than a coinflip or so and you need to double up badly. You have no reason to think that you will either get another good hand very soon or that he will fold to an all-in push once you've folded this and maybe another hand so you have to take your chance with this hand right now.

My thought was at those blinds, it was better to go now then later - there's a very good chance of going broke before you get another hand as playable. Easy for me to say now tho.

I'm curious though Daniel...when did you end up making your move, and did you get your money in with the best hand?

I'm surprised that Antonio had that good of a hand considering that his range could even put you in a favorite situation. The stack is so short that you are getting good odds on your $$$ considering the opponent

I voted call but I'm sad to say it wasn't for any of those reasons. Thats quite a chip desperity and with a nice suited connector I can't let it go. You're going to have to get lucky as it is...so why not try it out with a pretty hand like that.

Holy crap, after I read the situation I easily decided to call and then told myself he might have A6 or something. Now I read that he did have A6, wow!!! I can't believe I called that. Probably just lucky guess.

Quick question, why are you an underdog to 8 6 ?

He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards.

I voted call because suited connectors are about a coinflip to any two random cards. And this is probably your best chance to double up and get back in the race.

Wow, do I feel smart >.< :oops: :oops:

This just goes to prove that my call of Antonio's cards was lucky.

I'm always interested in hearing Gus' reasoning for things. Did he explain why he thought the fold was absolutely horrible?

Horrible? The fold can't be that bad.
Assume Antonio is playing any ace, any pair.
87s needs 1.48 from the pot to call. Daniel
is getting 1.4 on this pot. That's a marginal
don't call. Gus decided that Antonio has a
tempo tell. Gus called Antonio with T8 of
diamonds when Antonio took too long to raise
all in. Say Antonio gave away that he didn't
hold a high pair, AK, or AQs. Now the 87s
needs only 1.34 from the pot. This time it's
marginally right to call. Big deal. 87s is
only 47.76% against a set of random hands.
Whatever Daniel did on this deal, it wouldn't
have improved his chances of winning the match
much. What about the hand that crippled
Daniel? That's the hand I'm interested in
seeing.

gus says to call because he has to make a stand, even if he steals next hand hes back to this same situation and theres no way to avoid having to win some races to get back from this situation

thats what i think anyway

Short-stacked from the earlier hand, Daniel goes all in with J-10 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's K-9. The flop comes K-9-3, giving Antonio two pair, but leaving Daniel with a gut-shot straight draw. A meaningless 4 falls on the turn, and a king on the river gives Antonio a full house and eliminates Daniel Negreanu from the tournament.

I skipped the replys but I'm not sure the fold is so horrible. Surely you can pick a better spot in a hand or two where you think you might be better than a coinflip. Sure in this place we now know you are a coin flip but you are going to be a dog against a larger pair or two bigger cards. A coin flip is really about the best you could hope for. If you think half the time you are going to be a dog and half the time you might be a coin flip to me I don't want to risk my entire stack in this situation.

I'm not sure if I got any of the other quiz quetions wrong but in this case I guess I got it wrong but I do disagree. It's a close one either way but I actually like how you played it in the first place. Fold. But what do I know.

The problem with folding is that even if you get AA on the next hand and double up, your stack will still be insignificant. Doubling up and having a stack of 14,400 would be better than 12,000. That extra 2,400 is another 1.5 rounds of the blinds to find another strong hand.

And suited connecters are about a coin-flip to any two random cards (except an overpair).

87s isnt good at a full table, but not too bad. Its definantly above average

Heads up 87s is a bad hand. Maybe somewhere in between marginal and bad at best. Its definantly below average. 8J unsuited, for exampe is considerably better heads up. Too many people dont adjust for heads up play properly. Remember, 27 isnt the worst hand heads up, 23 is. All odds are different, implied and implicit.

I'll fold this hand here, and still think even after what I've heard from Daniel and Gus (however much i respect them) its the right thing to do. As someone mentioned, assuming he'll do this with any two picture cards (my addition), any ace, or any pocket pair, Poker Stove says your not getting odds to call. I know you need to double up, but chances are you'll get a better hand NEXT hand.

But NEXT hand pays 2400 less........and you ain't gotta no chippies. The fact remains, even Gus or DN are highly HIGHLY unlikely to come back from 10 to 1....luv'm, but it ain't happening.

Yeah, thats why I say call and then have AE buy you a drink...

I voted call. Its a pretty easy decision if you think about it. Your sitting with 78 suited. He went all in. You only have enough chips to play 5 more hands if you fold. And if you win you double up making yourself alot more of a threat to your opponent. If lets say he was sitting with Pocket Aces Or Pockey Kings...and he revealed his cards by an accident, I would've still called him. You need to make a move at some point. He went all in, giving you a chance to double up, not many chances when the chip leaders gonna do that.

vs A 8 34.35%

Hey Daniel Are we playing with 2 8 of diamonds in this tourney?

EDIT: ahhh methinks you probly mean A 8

I'd probably fold here and push on the next hand to steal back my blind. I don't like risking my tournament on a coin-flip, but with the blinds this big it is basically inevitable. Still, I have found myself in this situation before and I have folded in this spot then pushed the next hand. This generally continues, one person pushing the other folding until someone wakes up with a decent enough hand to call... so I guess in that respect it still boils down to a coin-flip, who will wake up with a good hand first. Of course Gus would say it was a mistake, he lives for coin-flips. I'd probably want king high or better to call. Failing that I'd fold then push any two cards the next hand, giving him the opportunity to fold. Maybe calling is the better option, but I don't think folding and then pushing any 2 is much worse.

I did that once to my friend at a home game. I had AA and he had A-6o and even after I showed him my cards he still had to think for about 5 minutes about folding.

I have to agree that calling is the right play. In teh situation where you only have 5 blinds left, all of the pot odds needs to be thrown out the window. If you just sit around and fold this hand, you're down to 6K to his ~75K. That would be a miracle comeback. You have to take a stand rather than let yourself get blinded to eternity.

Now, let's say that you fold this hand and the push with your next and, no matter what it is, with the intention of stealing the blinds. remember that your opponent already has 1200 in from the big blind, so he only has to call 4800 for a pot of 7200. That's 3:2 and odds are you will get called with even a marginal hand. Bottom line... you WILL NOT be atealing the blinds next hand. If I'm the chip leader I call with anything in that situation. Even if I double you up, I still have ~70K to your 12K, so it is worth the risk with any hand.

Now, to those of you that said to look for a better hand in the next two hands, that's impossible. What if a better hand doesn't come??? Even if it does, you are going to get called and it's unlikely that you will be too much of a favorite unless you get a very lucky deal.

IMHO, you need chips immediately. With 78s I take my chances here, and especially against Antonio, who we all know can get a bit wreckless heads up. I call. Easily.

Daniel...do you think you would've survived this hand if your chipstack were 16,800 instead of 6,000? How would you and Antonio played this hand differently with a 5:1 chip disadvantage instead of a 12:1 disadvantage? I presume you would've held off on raising all-in preflop from the SB, but would you have folded if Antonio had put you all-in or raised to ~8000? Enquiring minds want to know...

erp! For some reason I misread the quiz question and when i replied here I thought you were both equal in chips with huge blinds forcing a confrontation soon. I guess im dyslexic because when i read it i thought it was 7k vs 7k not 7k vs 72k. Maybe I should have read the other replies before I made mine. Anyway, being outchipped like that and with blinds so big, yeah I'd definately push here and I agree with gus that is was a mistake not to call, though I don't think it was a terrible mistake.

Maybe it was my brain failing to read the extra zero on the end of antonio's stack, how could Daniel be outchipped so much by the magician!

Pushing any two on the next hand, as I originally suggested, would have been terrible if he outchipped you so bad; yeah you have to call here

LOL I don't believe I have ever agreed with Daniel on any of the 7 quizzes.

As a big fan of Daniel's, I remember a tip he gave out in one of his articles on a different Website. Daniel said " you look for hands that play well after the flop." I have taken this reasoning to try and up my game to the next level. Therefore, I am wondering why some posts say to fold this hand, since you only have an eight high. With five cards to come, and with a strong possibilty you have two live cards ( which of course improve your percentages), I would play this hand like AKs.

P.S. - I am always amazed at what I see the Pros play in a heads-up situation, hands that any book would tell you to fold. Thanks again for the cool Website.
Lee

Umm, check again. There is no opportunity for post-flop play when the other player has put you all-in preflop.

Umm, check again. There is no opportunity for post-flop play when the other player has put you all-in preflop.[/quote]

Ummm, I wasn't talking about post-flop "play" at all. Check my article again, and understand that I meant you play hands with outs that do better with five cards to come. Ummmm....

My bad. I misinterpreted "play well after the flop" as "can be played well post flop".

[quote=Lucid]Umm, check again. There is no opportunity for post-flop play when the other player has put you all-in preflop.[/quote]

Ummm, I wasn't talking about post-flop "play" at all. Check my article again, and understand that I meant you play hands with outs that do better with five cards to come. Ummmm....[/quote]

Ummm, this is a really meaningless post, since all hands in hold'em are evaluated pre-flop on the basis there are 5 cards to come (there are very minor exceptions but not when you're calling an all-in). Anyone who understands the rules of Holdem will not make this mistake.

And to the person who suggested to "throw all pot odds out the window" and similiar posters, I hope to play you heads up some day. You must always consider pot odds, unless you catch some ludicrously trustworthy tell.

The fact that you lose future equity (the fact that now if you double up it will be for less) by folding here is the ONLY logical arguement you can make for this play. However, even considering that, I still think it is very close but not worth it. It isnt too hard to compute mathmatically. When you do, as i have done, including future equity, i think the better play is to go all in next hand unless you get dealt compete trash. Not only is your hand likely to be better, his is much much more likely to be worse, and this change is slightly worth the loss of the 2400 (with or without assuming he'll fold with a bad hand).

But its really close.

Ummm, this is a really meaningless post, since all hands in hold'em are evaluated pre-flop on the basis there are 5 cards to come (there are very minor exceptions but not when you're calling an all-in). Anyone who understands the rules of Holdem will not make this mistake.


I love this guy. Thanks for the smart reply, but your reply is meaningless, cause of course all cards are evaluated pre-flop with 5 cards to come— DUH! the example was that Daniel was holding a suited connector. Is that evaluated the same as Ace nine off with 5 cards to come? But thanks for the unnessasary smart-butt reply anyway. By the way, this forum is filled with mroe people who want to show how much they know about Poker, than anything else. I guess I fell into that catorgory too. Truth is, there are 100 ways to look at any hand, and maybe 65 of those are "right". So before we call anyone's post meaningless, maybe we should make sure we know what the guy is talking about first (Moron)

[quote=Lucid] Thanks for the smart reply, but your reply is meaningless, cause of course all cards are evaluated pre-flop with 5 cards to come— DUH! [/quote]

This didnt seem obvious to you before.


[quote="Lucid"] Is that evaluated the same as Ace nine off with 5 cards to come? [/qoute]

Assuming this was rhettorical and the answer you intended to imply was no, you just contradicted yourself. If the answer you intended to imply was yes, then you just contradicted yourself . Think about it and you should be able to tell why, if you cant I'll help you.

[quote=Lucid] But thanks for the unnessasary smart-butt reply anyway. By the way, this forum is filled with mroe people who want to show how much they know about Poker, than anything else. I guess I fell into that catorgory too. Truth is, there are 100 ways to look at any hand, and maybe 65 of those are "right". So before we call anyone's post meaningless, maybe we should make sure we know what the guy is talking about first (Moron)[/quote]

Speaking of meaningless, learn to tell the difference between an attack on you and an attack on your ideas. Anyone who says to concider 78s the same as AKs especially heads up deserves to be contradicted.

chips were very short here, but as a call u get zero folding equity. id rather pop all in next hand with any 2 so he has a chance to fold. i mean ur calling with 8 high. raise all in with it yes but not call.

Mathematically speaking, you should call with the 8,7 suited if you think you have at least a 41.67% chance of winning the pot. Obviously it is the correct fold if Antonio holds a high pocket pair, has him dominated, etc. But, even if Antonio held a hand as strong as Ace, King off suit (no diamond), you have a 41.9 % chance to win which is enough to make the call profitable (barely). There are relatively few hands Antonio could hold where your winning percentage will be below 41.67% compared to the vast number of hands where the winning percentage would be above 41.67% and a similar all in play would be expected.

Skeptics may comment on long term tournament strategy and how to play from a short stack, but when considering if calling is a profitable play on this hand, at least a 41.67% chance to win is necessary for positive expected profits and cannot be disputed. If you don't know how to calculate this percentage, ask Daniel and maybe he'll tell you, and if he doesn't know, than he should send me an e-mail.

plowking37@hotmail.com

This is not the spot to gamble in my view

NIT