Hero: AQ

Villian: J 5 -- villian is a donk, chases draws, gambler

blinds 150/300/25

hero 12k
villian covers, around 18k

Folds to CO who limps, hero raises to 1200, villain calls (bb), CO calls

FLOP Q 4 7 (3950)

villian checks, CO checks, Hero bets $3000, villian calls, CO folds

TURN 6 $9950

villian checks, hero all in for $7800

Villian be getting 2.25:1ish

edit, if you are villian, are we calling this?

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- Jordan

Maybe it's because I'm a donk, but with around 11 outs and a chance to eliminate a decent sized stack I call. Villain would still have around 20 BB and while not a force, not crippled either. IMHO. Granted he probably never should have been in the hand, but it's too late for that now.

You show your hand and tell us that villain is a donk. Then you want us to tell you what villain should do? Just post this in the bad beats forum. It's not a strat post.

Bad beat post? lol. You dont know me well. I don't care if he calls or not.

I'm just wondering, from a math point, if he is right to? I'm not a big tourney player, crucify me.

And yes, he's a donk. Everyone at that game would tell you so too....just wondering...though, math wise if this is ok?

- Jordan

God he played the hand horribly. He should have just shoved on the turn. Villian is 34% to win on the turn, or a bit better than 2-1. Since he is getting 2.25-1 mathematically it is a call, but in a tournament situation there are always other factors to consider.

From villain's perspective ... it's unlikely that you hold two diamonds or that you have a str8 or str8 draw. He likely has 15 outs making him 2.1:1 to hit and getting 2.25:1 mathematically he should call. Of course he made that call on the turn when he couldn't possibly have odds to make the call so clearly he either doesn't understand the odds or doesn't care.

I you want a serious answer to the question take your holding and the "read" on villain out of the OP.

Maybe I didn't explain the point of this post. It isn't to put me or him on a hand.

It's just simply, "hey, in a tourney situation, should he be calling here, with pot odds, his hand, and his draw in question?"

I knew he had a draw on this hand, and I didn't even have the hand I said I did, but I didn't want my "real" hand to be in question here, I'm just curious as to the math part of this in situation with a tourney.

My hand shouldn't matter, only his.

And again, I didn't really care if he called or not...as it was live and I was itching to play 200 hands/hr anyways. looool

- Jordan

You couldn't come up with a more mathematically insignificant example. Against a likely range, I put villian at 30.4% to win, and to have the right odds to call based purely on chip equity, he needs 30.5%. However, since he's a donk, I figure that his best move is to gamble on a break-even proposition, so I say yes, good call.

He gambles on any proposition really...I'm not criticizing his play (although I did chuckle when he called and I saw his hand, and consequently how he played it). Honestly, I couldn't care less...I'm just wondering if indeed this is a "good call" here. I know he played the hand horribly, no doubt in that, but whatever.

I know he doesn't go over pot odds and that kinda stuff...blah bleh blem. I was basically just wondering if you put yourself in this situation, if you call this all in bet on the turn (i'd assume most of you wouldn't play it this passively).

I'm just reminded when I play tournaments, how much I'd rather be playing cash games. lol

- Jordan

I like how everyone but hoosier missed the point of the post, lol.

Like jd said, villain is 34% to win on the turn, meaning that as long as he is getting better than 2:1 from the pot (66:33 = exactly 2:1), he is correct to call.

I assume you are making this blanket statement because villain still has 6k left if he loses. Otherwise you're using a cash game analysis, no?

I shove turn if villain as well

as played
Whether I call depends on factors like prize strucutre, blinds elevation, other stacks, my skills vs others, etc.

well im glad he called and busted me.

first was ~700-800...payed 4 spots. all day event...prob woulda been going on 6 more hours at least from the point i busted.

instead i go home and win $850 in 45 minutes.

gg



- Jordan

Not really sure what you're getting at. Using the same analysis as you would in a cash game is correct until the bubble because chips don't start losing value until money starts to get taken out of the prize pool. I mean, if you're at a full table of huge fish and you can consistently get your money in with big edges, then you might consider passing up a small edge, but that is never the case and it would be stupid anyway. If anything, you would skew your odds toward calling since chips gained should allow you to bully and gain more.

what do you mean by chips lose value after bubble bursts ? (edit: I see, now, Chip per $ is higher after $'s gone, but each chip loses value proportionally, so, I'm not sure of the impact to strategy.... again, not familar with "PowerTools" discussions or whatnot)

personally, I'd be more likely to call getting 3:1 with a 30% chance in a cash game than a would in a tourney for all my chips. I don't think the extra chips help me proportionally enough to risk going out. However, I play SnG's almost exclusively, and thus, huge stacks relative to field are less necessary.

oh, and I really suck with a big stack