Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

MP3 ($200)
CO ($197)
Button ($396.30)
Hero ($214.55)
BB ($177)
UTG ($183.25)
UTG+1 ($236.45)
MP1 ($191.65)
MP2 ($334.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K .
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($8) K , 7 , 4 (4 players)
Hero bets $4, BB folds, MP1 folds, CO raises to $20, Hero calls $16.

Turn: ($48) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $48, Hero calls $48.

River: ($144) K
Hero bets $144 . . .
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I hate playing AK in the blinds. If I raise and get callers, miss the flop, and continuation bet, I've put an awful lot of money in the pot with no pair. Raising and checking invites a steal. Limping leaves the whole universe of hands possible.

Here I limp and hope for a good flop. I catch a king and put in a bet. CO is a rock (14.4% VP$IP, 1.93% PFR%, TP/A). On this flop, I figure him for 777 or a king (after the raise). I flat call his raise on the flop and bet on the turn, which I think looks like I'm playing a flush draw. So how to play the river? I try to represent a bluff with a missed draw, hoping to get paid by KQ or any pair.

What's your line on this hand?

So if villian is a rock, you called his 5x re raise? Hoping to go runner runner? If your read is correct its an easy fold.

As far as the river goes, I like it. By potting it, you are very unlikely to get raised, even by a hand like KK777, who might be afraid now that you could possibly have had a K and hit a higher kicker. If you bet less, you get raised by better hands here yet fail to make up what you lose by extracting more value out of a Kx hand. If you check, you may still get a bet from Kx, but you can't extract max value because you really can't raise the river. Plus, the bet from Kx may not come, since he may figure you for either a busted draw or something stronger, in which case his bet with a medium-strength hand doesn't have value.

The interesting thing to me about the hand is that you half-pot it on the flop, giving a flush draw a decent price to take a card off, which doesn't seem like your usual tack. But by doing that, you set things up so that you can more effectively induce a call by a weaker hand on the river.

looks like a K protecting against a flush draw, you may very well be

1. chopping
2. be behind a now made full with a K4d that's all I could think of unless you think he would would limp with AA

I think you're fine. It would be a little weird to put you on a flush draw so his Tagging on this one is probably just value betting a KQ or KJ.


100 more to go....

QUOTE (David_Nicoson @ Thursday, June 8th, 2006, 11:18 AM)

Pokertracker assigned him the category of rock. That's really all I was going on. I think there's a very good chance he has a king here.




I'm confident he's not playing K4 with a 14% VP$IP. It's either trip kings or sevens full.

So what would he rasie with then?

Only AK? AA? KK?

AA you beat
AK you chop
KK well, KK you figure he would have raised no?

Would he play 44? If he is a rock then probably not

Then the 77 makes sense, so you are behind one possible hand then

On the flop? I think he's going to raise with KJ+ or 77.
Preflop I guess he raises with AA and KK and nothing else.

Yeah.

I don't find 444 entirely out of the question, but I think he folds that hand. It's getting tough for me to firewall off the information I have after the fact. (The hand showed down.)

Remember gooch this was a limped pot. We should eliminate AA. My range for limping pf, the raising on that flop , for villian is 44, 77 or K+fd.

If he is this much of a rock I think that he might even not even play 44, but who knows?

I think the general that he would raise AA and KK is set, and that he would limp with AK and KQ, and maybe not even play KJ

Still looks like AK to me though

Its gonna be funny when results show 56.

does 14% play 56? suited?

I know I do, but I'm like 35-40% and play 6 max

Dave thinks I'm wrong, but I would've raised with AK here. I think then the CO folds and the other limper folds and I don't have a scary decision to make. Yeah, I'm wrong, but I would've raised because ISAP.

edit: I'm talking about a pre-flop raise in case that was unclear above.

Since it was a limped pot, even rocks will play 44 on the CO.

I guess I'll play Devil's Advocate and say that I am not a big fan of the bet. The hands that have you beat will naturally call you (44, 77, 88, 56, K4, K7, K8 [not that he would play the last four hands if he is THAT tight])

Anything else like a large pocket pair or two pair will fold since he's a rock, and unless you have a loose image that has shown he is capable of firing a $144 shell on a busted draw, then he won't call that bet.

So you're left hoping that he has KQ, KJ cause AK is a chop and you lose money to the rake machine.

I think the real operative question here is: "Is he so solid that the only way he will reraise on the flop is with two pair or a set?" If he's willing to go over the top with just top pair and reasonable kicker, then I'm okay with your bet. But if he's a nut-peddler, then I think we just check/call here.

I don't seem him raising the flop bet with 88 unless he thought there was no King out there, which just may be the case since it was $4 into an $8 pot, but then I don't know if pot size bets were the norm or not

Don't mind that line.

The possibility of 88 is definitely smaller, but it's possible. I would have bet the same way with 88s. But I'm quite a bit looser than this guy when I sense weakness on a continuation bet on the flop. Typically, when I do a continuation bet steal (with mid pair, flush draw, or outright nothing at all) and I hit my monster on the turn, I happily lead out a pot sized bet and hope that he still believes I'm bluffing. If he slow played KK, he can have my money.

Would you fold to a pot-sized bet on the river?
Once I decided that I would call anyway, it seemed better to bet.

He's going to check behind with those anyway, right? So I can't make anything by checking. I could put in a small value bet here, I suppose.

That was my feeling. It doesn't matter what I do with other hands, and I make more money against exactly KJ and KQ by making a big bet. The rake was capped on the turn, so that's not a factor.


Check-call probably costs me about the same amount, anyway, imho.

ENOUGH...time for the results.

If the rock thought that Dave was just making a continuation bet the I guess so, would he have expected Dave to smooth call AK? if not then KQ is a possible as well.






common dave

Probably. The difference would be if the villain has you beat here more often than not and decides to bet a little less, thereby saving you some money in the long-run. That is assuming, however, villain also bets with Kx. I think what swings this in favor of bet rather than check-call is that since villain is a rock, the chances are greater that he will call with Kx than the chances he will actually bet with Kx, although it seems a bit counterintuitive to say it. A rock is more likely to be cautious on the river and less likely to toss out a value bet with Kx, but given the way hero played the hand, it will also be harder for the rock to get away here from a hero lead - especially since it's a limped pot, making KQ/KJ more viable as a calling hand. I think not betting here really risks a check behind against a hand that could call, and we really need a call in order to make up for the times we are beat.

I know what the villian had. Heehee.

Villain calls with K J . Evil is defeated. Ewoks dance.

I don't think raising with AK preflop is a totally bad policy. It certainly decreases the chance of something silly (like K4, in this case) sneaking up and stangling us from the big blind.

With stacks shallow enough that we can get all-in with the raise preflop or on the flop, I'm all for it. The deeper we are, the more position matters and the less significant any advantage we have in preflop equity. So I'm less inclined to raise here with medium depth.

I guess his read was that you were stealing then?

He typed something like, "I think I'm beat, but I have to call you."

I believe him, too. He just wasn't sure enough to pass up 2:1 on the river. I find that a lot of guys who see very few flops can't make laydown.

I'm pretty sure he figured you would have raised with AK

If you were KJ, do you fold this hand? I certainly dont fold the river.