Alright, this is a speed table so my preflop action is wack cause I almost missed the hand.

Hero A K
Donk is covered by me and BB
BB has me covered barely, I'm still on my $400ish stack (no solid read here)

Donk opens in ep to I think $22, I tap min raise when I see the table bounce up just before I muck, bb calls $$40 or so, Donk calls $40, and I think there was one dead money $22 in the pot..

FLOP :: A J 6 (~$150)

BB checks, Donk checks, Hero bets $140, BB CRAI, Donk folds, Hero has to call $220 All in.

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- Jordan

just put BB moves allin

the this is a call

could easily be AQ/AT as often as its AJ/set

You honestly think AT/AQ plays it this way?

I know I'm getting a huge price...but...

- Jordan

Would he make this play with the flushdraw?

K Q or K T

are the only hands I think he could do this with.

I've been talking with chucksty on msn for a while about this, and math wise it is a call. I took some convincing, but admittingly I'm a horrible 'math' guy, but uh yea...he and DDIM say this is a call more times than not, even though we can assume we are beat more than 50% of the time...i'm stilling getting 3:1...

this is why ISAP.

- Jordan

maybe not AT

this could very easily be a split pot

the only hand you really dont want him to have is 66

Meh but c/ring with a 66 is giving our hero more reason to call if he has a flush draw, right?


Jordan, I'm with you on this one, I feel like I'm so beat here I just can't hit the call button. Were you implying you miss-hit the raise button and therefore minraised?

Could be good for a donk table image

In general, how many hands over how long a time do you need to play in order for mathematically-correct-to-call situations like this to apply to you? Anyone?
If I don't play that many hands during that amount of time, should I not call in this situation then?

Very very tough spot indeed. You pretty much priced yourself in with your flop bet though.

I guess this could be a flush draw enough times to make it a call. BB certainly cant expect that he has any fold equity given the odds you have to call though.

What scares me the most is that the As is on board making a flush draw from BB much less likely.

I call and expect to see JJ here a high % of the time

Wow I'm tight as hell and i don't lay this down getting 6-1 on the last 80 bucks.

i was getting 3:1..had to call $220 more...



Yea, as I said above, I think in the long run this is a call...with the range of hands he has and pot odds...getting 3:1 (little more) I guess it should be a call...math wise...instinct wise everything was telling me 'no', but eh....

- Jordan

What if you had only bet $100 on the flop. Would that have changed your call to a fold?

Whats villian range (that we could estimate) for calling two raises cold OOP. I would try and discard 66. AJ and JJ are likely, and AQ, AK are as well. I just dont think you can call here, when your realistically beating one hand, unless BB is a donk.

Also, wuts with everyone on this forum and pot sized betting? Cant you price out other draws, by betting a little less? The reason I ask this, is because when we flop hands like TPTK, it seems we always seem to price ourselves in to pay off a bigger hand.

I'm very confulsed w/ the flop action. Who bet $140?

i bet 140 after they checked to me.

i was CRAI by BB for $220 more to call. he had me covered, but barely.

- Jordan

oh ok i smoke toooooooooooo much

fold

The call or the reraise will usually big a bigger ace IMO. So IMO, you're chopping here, got outflopped w/ AJ or are dominating. 1/2 and .5/1 SHed is aggressive enough that AQ and At will play like this, so I would really expect this level to play it this way as well along w/ a bunch of random bluffs.

This fora has an agression factor of about 45 post post

sorry, what?

I also misunderstood at first. For 80 I'm sure I'm beat but no way I can fold. For 220 I can find a fold here. Your screwed and you knew it. If it wasn't aj or jj I'd be suprised, could even be 66 if this is 6 max, which I'm guessing it was. But I've made a lot worse calls.

well i folded, but i wasn't sure if i shoulda called judging by price i was getting...

talking w/ some other players helped too.

- Jordan