Series starts this Thursday and a new champion will be crowned this year.

This should be a interesting series because things that worked for these teams in the conference finals will not likely work in the finals.

Matchups:

Dirk will not be able to drive to the basket as freely as he did agaisnt the Suns with Shaq and Zo clogging the lane, so I wonder if he is going to resort to being a jump shooter again. Who on the Heat will guard this guy?

Who will guard Shaq? All the players that the Mav's couldnt play last series do to match problems will be required to come in and guard Shaq. Rested or Rusty?

Howard played great on both sides of the ball, but will likely get matched up vs Wade and that could very well be the matchup that decides the series. Keep an eye on Howard's fouls and how much time he can actually spend guarding Wade.

The pointguard matchup could be interesting, Williams vs Terry. I think the guy who has the least turnovers will really sway each game.

Coaching:

Riley vs Avery, experience vs the hot newcomer... lets see who pulls the correct moves to manipulate things.

Wildcards:

Jerry Stackhouse & Antoine Walker, both former #1 options on teams that now are key roleplayers, who will have the better series?



Prediction... I like the Heat to take it all. As improved as the Mavs defense is, there is no true anwser for a determined Shaq, and I don't think anyone can really shut down Wade. While everyone has a hard time shutting down Dirk, I don't think any of the Mavs secondary options are nearly as hard to defend.

That's the key to me. Its almost like "Dirk is gonna get his, lets shut down everyone else". If they do that the Heat will win the series.

I also agree with your point that Dirk will not be able to drive as much as he did against Phoenix. I know he's a great shooter, but I'd rather have him taking jumpshots than getting into the lane for and-1's.

mavs in 6 easy

I don't know about this. Dirk isn't really a finish with authority type of guy anyway. He can get in the lane and still shoot a little fall away and make a high percentage. I don't think Shaq and Mourning will affect him that much. I think Dallas' D is still underrated and Miami will struggle to score. I'm going with Dallas in 6 too. (I'll be rooting for Miami though.)

I cant believe how many people are picking the Heat to win (ESPN polls, radio, etc.). The Mavs to me are the clear favorite in this series

Nov 2005 Dallas @ Miami D103-90
Feb 2006 Miami @ Dallas D 112-76

To the Miami fans.......Good luck in Dallas...You will be warmly welcomed

Most the things I have seen have the Mavs picked to win.



Dirk was finishing with authority vs the Suns, I guarantee he won't be doing that well with the and1's vs Miami. And better D or not, no one on the Mavs can guard the Heats top 2 options, if they get any production at all from other players they will give the Mavs headaches.

I'm picking the Heat in 6.

Dallas is the easy favorite here. They have the better record which in turn gives them home court advantage. So I'll explain why I'm picking the Heat.

The key to this whole series is Shaq. Dallas will no doubt try to run and wear Shaq out, but I dont think that's the biggest factor. Shaq's foul trouble will be critical. Dallas has enough penetrators to keep attacking the rim and get Shaq in foul trouble. So if the refs are calling those fouls (like they have been all season) and Dallas keeps getting to the rim, Shaq will spend a lot of time on the bench and the Mavs will win easy.

I think Riley is smart enough to realize what the Mavs are going to do and he will try counter it. Look for the guards to do everything to try and stop the penetration (even if it means fouling alot). The Heat will also try to control the boards to try and prevent the Mavs fastbreak opportunities. So by controlling the boards, they should be able to slow the game down to their pace. If they can do all that, then I think they can keep Shaq on the floor and effective, and they will win it in 6. They dont want to go 7 games here.

The Heat appear to be playing their best ball right now and seemed to have peaked at the right time. They arent the same team they were during the regular season.

lets not overrate the Heat defense, the piston played like SHAT last series, missed open shots alllllll series

we have no real answer for shaq, thats fine

the heat have ZERO answer for dirk and howard, throw in terry and harris and the heat will have to pray we are off all series

Mavs in 6, MAYBE 5 if we play like we did against the spurrrrrrs

Anybody picking heat in 6, I urge you to set yourself free financially by betting HUGE on the pick...It's a lock...c'mon....These Mavs CAN't do it....Keep saying we can't it gets us motivated ... Cubans Blog

Shaq.. you have no anwser for Wade and Walker provides all types of matchup problems too. Don't forget that the Heat have excellent defenders on the bench too (Alonzo Morning).

Howard isn't an unstoppable offensive force, he is solid but he is guardable. Terry is very inconsistant and Harris blows more point blank layups than anyone I have ever seen. He is quick, but he plays out of control a lot of the time.

Dirk is gonna get his, shut down Howard and keep Terry underwraps and the Mavs offence can get stagnent.

I'll say it here, and gladly stick my foot in my mouth if I'm proven wrong. I don't see the Heat as an amazing, or even great team for that matter. They've had a GREAT playoff run, but this series will no where near as exciting as the Mavs/Spurs series...Miami played teams that were tired, and rolled over. Their heads will be spinning when the Mavs are done...Mavs in 5 or 6

Anybody who thinks that Pat Riley will be denied with this group is flat out retarded. Who's gonna stop Dirk? Who cares? Who's gonna stop Shaq? How about Wade? The Heat made the Pistons defense look non- existent, and Dallas has does nothing except show me that they can stop a Suns offense running with 6 guys. The Heat are loaded. If the Mavs win a game I will be suprised- Heat in 4.

You don't get to the finals by playing like crap.



Maybe it will, maybe it won't. We have to watch and see.



Bulls are one of the youngest most exciting teams in the league.

Nets were considered the hottest team in the league comming into the playoffs, and the Heat rolled them in 5.

Pistons, you know a team that was in the finals 2 years in a row and best record in the league this year... done in 6.

The Mavs have been pushed to the limit every series, and honestly they were lucky they escaped the Spurs cause the refs were trying to hand them game 7.

The Heat have less playoff wear and tear, the Mav's are not going to run circles around them. You better hope the Mavs hold homecourt the first 2 games of the series, or it might not get back for game 6. The Heat have been very tough at home in the playoffs.

There was a joke section posted yesterday.....you can move this there...Heat in 4 ? The hardest I've laughed today...This thread will be fun after the finals...

no one has still ever run the three road games at home - although i think the bulls ran the three on the road against the lakers

Mavericks. Nowitzki isn't their only offensive threat..so I don't know why people think the Heat are just gonna "give Dirk whatever and shut down everyone else" or whatever.......yeah, Miami looked good against the Pistons..but we also must remember that Detroit played like crap.....the Mavs will be a MUCH tougher test for the Heat....and I think the Mavs are just going to be too much. Should be a great series though...I honestly would love to see both win...I like Dirk and I would love to see Shaq rub his ring right in Kobe's face....so either works for me.

Agreed that the Mavs will be the toughest team the Heats faced. I expect a good series and I think a lot of it is going to come down to coaching and execution when teams get the mismatches they want.

I want to see Wade and Dirk both get rings, and I would like to see Cuban get one as a FU to the NBA in general. It would also be nice to see Shaq rub another ring in Kobes face too. I will be happy with the outcome regardless, though since Wade is probably my favorite player in the series I will be pulling for the Heat. Exp since I think the Mavs have the brighter future ahead of them where the Heat seem to be assembled to make this years run and that it.

I LOVE you heat fans talking up ANTOINE FRIGGIN WALKER

that would be like me talking about how a big key to the mavs is van horn

toine is a joooooooooookkkkkeeeee

mavs in 5 or 6

Antoine's a joke? How many All-Star teams do you have to make before you arent a joke anymore?

Walker is a 3-time All-Star. Van Horn has NEVER made the All-Star team. A better comparison would Walker to Stackhouse. Stackhouse is a 2 time All-Star. Their roles are also similar in that they both provide additional offensive fire power. Do you think Stackhouse is a joke?

Actually, I would take Van Horn over Walker any day of the week...and Walker may have made the all-star team, but that doesn't make him an all-star. I've included head-to-head comparisons of Walker and Van Horn, There's no overwhelming difference, so before you knock Van Horn for being weak, take a look at your "All-Star"...

Antoine Walker / Van Horn

PPG 12.2 / PPG 8.9
RPG 5.1 / RPG 3.6
APG 2.0 / APG .7
SPG .57 / SPG .58
BPG .37 / BPG .21
FG% .435 / FG% .424
FT% .628 / FT% .832
3P% .358 / 3P% .368
MPG 26.8 / MPG 20.6


Factor in MP and they are pretty much the same person, except Van Horn has been hitting from deep lately and can shoot a free throw.

Mavs in 5-6. Mark it down, bet on it, if i Still gambled on sports I'd put 1k on the series. Mavs will win. Too quick, will wear the heat down. Desagna Diop is exctly the right guy to guard Shaq and Mavs still have Dampier. Put Howard on Wade. How you gonna stop the two quick guards Terry and Harris and the slasher Howard. Not even mentioning Nowitzki, who will avg 30+ this series. Plus, look at the teams the Mavs beat to get here, compared to the heat. The Spurs+Suns are alot better than Pistons+Nets, especially since the Pistons weren't the same team and I knew they wouldnt get back to the finals. See my original picks for the finals. I believe it was Heat vs Spurs, Spurs Win. I still believe the same thing but place Mavs instead of Spurs.

Here are the problems I found in your post. But I'll look at this comment first.



LOL. I never said Van Horn was weak. I was only arguing Walker wasnt a joke. It was the guy rooting for Dallas that implied Van Horn was a joke. I actually like Van Horn as a player. He's had some injuries thoughout his career but his overall number are good. And btw, I'm not even a big Antoine Walker fan.




The players do have simliar numbers, so its hard to pick one over the other. But when you factor in that Van Horn is injury prone and Walker isnt, I think most people would take Walker. But its close.



Your wrong. This might be true if some guy made the team one year and never returned, but thats not true here. If Walker wasnt an All-Star, he would NOT have made it 3 times. In Addition he was voted in by the coaches, and I'm guessing they're better judges than you or myself. Walker and Van Horn may have had similar numbers and the two played in the same conference, but the coaches felt otherwise. I'm guessing injuries are the reason Van Horn never made it.



Wrong agian. There's a big difference in those numbers. Walker is +3 PPG, +1.5 RPG, and +1.3 APG better than Van Horn. That is significant. Your minutes per game comment is correct in that the numbers are almost indentical, but you're leaving something very important out when looking at 40 MPG averages. Why did Walker get more minutes than Van Horn? It likely comes back to injuries. Van Horn played 53 games this year while Walker played in all 82. Thats important. When you combine that with the stats you posted, Walker contributed more to the Heat than Van Horn did to Dallas this year.

I just think Walker's contributions and role for the Heat match better with Stackhouse for the Mavs than the Walker/Van Horn comparison.

People just love to hate on Walker though (I'm not a big fan of his either). People pretty much see him as a selfish, showboating player. But he has contributed greatly to the Heat this year and proved a lot of people wrong. This has actually caused people to hate him more. Like I said I'm not a big fan of his, but the boy can play.

First game was great. Close the whole way. I'm eager to see what adjustments the teams make in Game 2.

The Heat have to be concerned that Dirk only scored 16 and they still lost, but the Mavs should be concerned that Dirk was held to 16 points.

At the end of the 2nd and 4th quarter the Heat had touble scoring when the Mavs put the defensive pressure on. That was the difference in the game.

A lot of people will point to the Heats free throw shooting (particularly Shaq), but they've been that way all year. They were the second worst free throw shooting team in the league.

Boy can he...you see last nights game ? What an all-star..

Oops...that was me



You sir....need to become a sports analyst...

I fell asleep last night, who won?

guys did the mavs win?

did shaw tear us up?

OWNED

MAVS IN FIVE now, probably sweep

This is silly.

First, I never said Walker was an all-star this year. I said he was a 3-time all-star. It's an established fact.

Two, all I said was that he could play ans wasnt a joke. I never said he was the greatest of all time.

Three, I guess you're the type of guy who judges a player by one single game (which is ridiculous btw). Walker didnt play well last night, but he still had 17 pts. I noticed you didnt use your crazy one game analysis for Van Horn. I wonder why?

1 game analysis ? Who did Walker play for two years ago ? I've seen enough of the guy

yah antioone sure "all-starred" it up dident he?

gg heat, this series is a foregone conclusion, i hope we blow 2 games just so we can win in dallas, otherwise mavs in 5 easy

You Mavs fans kill me.

Both teams played pretty poorly in game 1, every game isnt going to play out like that.

I'm still not sure what you're talking about.

2 years ago he played for Dallas and had 14 PPG and 8 RPG in a complimentary role (which is good btw). The year before that in Boston he had 20 PPG, 7 RPG and made the all-star team (coaches voted him in). The year after Dallas he played for Atlanta/Boston when he averaged 19 PPG and 9 RPG. Whats wrong with these numbers?

And this year Walker has been one of the better complimentary players in the league. He basically has the same role (and contributes just as much) as Stackhouse has for Dallas. And I think Stackhouse is a good player. Do you disagree?

Like I said, I dont like Walker personally, and I would not pick him to be the star of my team. But I think he does have some value as 3rd option on a good team. He's been a big part of what the Heat have done this year. Is there anything wrong with what I'm saying?

I thought both teams played ok. It was much more of defensive game than I expected. There was some poor play though. Shaq was just horrible from the line (even fo him), both teams missed some easy layups, and neither team seemed to go to their big options as much as they should (Shaq for the Heat and Dirk for the Mavs) But the game was close almost the whole way so that's probably affecting my point of view.

But I agree, the rest of the games should be different. Not really in who wins/loses, but I think both teams will be sharper offensively.

I think both teams did play much of the game poorly. I liked Walker with the Mavs...I think he's an ok player...I was just chiming in some friendly banter...But saying he is playing on a higher lever or belongs anywhere on the all-star roster (aside from reserves) is a shame...

The Heat got their *** kicked tonight. Not much else I can say about tonights game.

so much for there bing a "determined" shaq. 5 pts and 6 rebs? haha...i love watchin shaq fail.

I see you have deleted your post......retard

......retard

good catch

Funny, i still see it.

lol...now I get to edit mine...it's baaaaack !!

Awsome game tonight. Right down to the final second. This is the close type of game I expected when the series started.

About time. The only reason I thought the Heat could take this was Dwayne Wade. If he is phenomenal they can win. He was ordinary in games 1 and 2. I honestly believe Miami can win Games 4 and 5. And I honestly believe they cant win 6 or 7. But I dont know much so whatever.

I'm just in shock. They actually called a Mavs player for blocking. I thought the rule was every one of those calls was Miami charging or blocking, I didn't realise they could make a correct call.

I think the Mavs are starting 5 Vlades with all the flopping they are doing.

UH OH


looks like we have a series after all....I believe the term for what happened tonight is "a thumping"

Did Vlade tutor Harris or something? That boy is flopping like a 10 year veteran.

But anyways, we most definitely have a series again, and the Heat have the momentum right now with the next game at home.

And I still dont think the Heat have played their best ball yet. They're turning the ball over too much and they're still not getting Shaq the ball enough. It may not show up in the box score but Shaq is making things a lot easier for his teammates when he gets the ball.

Oh, and dont believe Shaq when he says the Stackhouse foul didnt bother him much. He's pissed. If I were the Mavs, I would be very concerned about playing an angry Shaq next game.

For the Mavs, just like the Heat in game 2 there's no way the Mavs can play worse than they did tonight. But they have to do more to help Dirk. I dont think Dirk has really played as good as he's capable of this series. I know he had 30 in game 3, but that was the quietest 30 I've ever seen (I was actually suprised when I saw it in the box score). The Heat are playing some good D on Dirk and the Mavs need to do more to get him going. He had an awful game tonight and twisted his ankel. We will have to wait and see how serious the injury is, but the Mavs should be worried right now.

Devin Harris is starting to get on my nerves with that. At one point I saw him come to double Shaq and he had both hands on Shaq's arm while Shaq held the ball over his head, and was jerking his head back to dry and draw a foul.

Edit: Didnt see prince's post about Harris, but I'm leaving this up anyway

I don't think Dirk is really hurt, he ran it off pretty quick.

This isn't really a new development; the same happened in the Phoenix series. The difference is the Heat are "more physical," so the calls have been more skewed in the Mavs' direction.

I love NBA basketball and i've joked before that it was fixed and that David Stern refused to let a finals be a sweep for tv reasons

but they really need to figure out what the hell is a charge and what is a block and get some consistency other than this team is at home or this team needs to win for there to be a game 7

Shaq is one thing he's tough to officiate but it really is a farce