brantford charity, 10/20 live poker.

relevant reads:
BB and UTG are semi-loose preflop and pretty straighforward postflop. UTG will bet strong draws as position dictates. MP1 is semi-loose preflop and prettly LAG postflop. CO calls every hand to the river, and has luckboxed himself about 600 bucks in the last 10 minutes.

hero is UTG+1 with AsKs.

UTG calls, hero raises, MP1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

flop: Qh Jd Ts. yahtzee!

BB checks, UTG bets, hero calls (this seems like THE occasion for a slowplay, considering the players behind and board texture, right?), all call.

turn: Th.

BB bets, UTG raises, hero folds.


alles klar?

I can't fold here, if you can maybe you're a better man than I. This is trip tens as often as it is a boat. It could be top pair with a flush and straight draw. It could be SOOO many things, I just don't see a fold being profitable here long run.

I can certainly see the argument for a fold, but I just couldn't do it.

Raise the flop. There's no point in slowplaying because the pot is already big and your going to get tons of action anyway on that board.

why raise the flop? i don't want this to get heads up, and i've got to assume anyone who has outs has 4 at most.

since UTG was tight, i was assuming that if i called the flop i'd get checked to on the turn and be able to keep all in.


as for calling the turn, what ranges are reasonable for BB and UTG considering their tight postflop tendencies? keep in mind, i've got TWO people waking up on that ten. i don't think i'm good even 1/20 here.

Actually, I think you want to get this headsup. When the pot is big, you want to win it right away. It's rarely ever correct to slowplay in big pots.

On the flop, there are 9.5 SB in the pot. After utg bets, there is 10.5 sb:
1) Assuming the players behind you are holding a hand like JT, giving them 2 pair and 4 outs to beat you. After you just call on the flop, they are getting 11.5 to 1 which is plenty for them to peel with (they need 10.75 to 1, and I'm not even factoring in implied odds right now).
2) If you raise, they get 6.25 to 1. Clearly, it is a mistake for them to call the flop raise now.

The beauty of all this is that QJ/JT/QT isn't going anywhere on the flop no matter if you raise or not. They are going to at least cold call you. If they 3-bet, thats even better for you so you can cap!

Also, you really want hands like Ax and Kx to fold, since any A/K on the turn or river probably puts you in a split pot.

i kind of vehemently disagree. when you're playing live poker and properly using your table changes, pretty much any pot is huge by most standards (this one was pretty small to possibly average for my table), so you can often assume that no one is ever going to make a mistake on a flop. in multiway pots, gutshots for 2 on the flop are not mistakes either if you even begin to think of implied odds. live games go to the river almost every hand.

turns, however, can be another story. i can make gutshots make whoopsies on the turn if UTG does bet, and if not, more than half the remaining deck doesn't scare me at all when i'm dragging 3-4 callers behind, half of whom are probably drawing dead. why wouldn't i want to keep as many in as possible?

i kind of vehemently disagree. when you're playing live poker and properly using your table changes, pretty much any pot is huge by most standards (this one was pretty small to possibly average for my table), so you can often assume that no one is ever going to make a mistake on a flop. in multiway pots, gutshots for 2 on the flop are not mistakes either if you even begin to think of implied odds. live games go to the river almost every hand.

It does'nt matter whether the pot is large or small relative to your table. If the pot is large, you should be maximizing your chance to win it. I don't get the italicized part, calling 2 cold with 2pair or a gutshot is definitely a mistake (whether they call or not). You want them to fold, but you don't mind a call either, since it's a -EV move on their part. If they want to chase their gutshots, at least make them pay for it.

turns, however, can be another story. i can make gutshots make whoopsies on the turn if UTG does bet, and if not, more than half the remaining deck doesn't scare me at all when i'm dragging 3-4 callers behind, half of whom are probably drawing dead. why wouldn't i want to keep as many in as possible?

Like I said before, this is an action flop. Why wait to the turn to get aggressive when people will be more than willing to cold call raises on the flop?

my point is that making a gutshot make a mistake is a possibility if i wait until the turn, but not possible on the flop. i've had a few arguments in strat about this before, and i really haven't heard a convincing argument for raising a flop where a turn mistake is a possibility for my opponents if i don't raise the flop. in this hand, any reasonable estimate of implied odds would make a flop call of either 1 or 2 bets correct, but 2 on the turn incorrect.

to be honest, i didn't expect any criticism of my flop play here. most of the reason i posted this hand was to get an idea of what people might put the BB and UTG on after the turn action. i wasn't able to think of anything that i had outs against, so i folded.

There's a few times you can probably wait till the turn.

I think flopping the nuts on a rainbow board with a backdoor draw is one of them. (But look where that got me)

Not sure I have the discipline to fold there though.

ok, a more detailed analysis of the turn play:

UTG didn't raise PF, so she doesn't have a set. BB called PF, so she has something reasonable.

UTG bet the flop knowing the raiser was right behind her. she flopped at least top pair and wants info or a raise for more money. she wouldn't bet a draw when me raising right behind was the most likely play. BB called the bet too, so she has a piece of some sort. both are tight postflop players.

BB bet the turn. she has a ten, or MAYBE some sort of flopped straight. UTG raised after a tight player woke up. top pair no longer a possibility, i don't think. a naked ten wouldn't bet the flop, unless it was AT, which isn't likely--i've seen her c/c flops with a pair and gutshot before. she's got either JT or QT. nothing else makes sense, except MAYBE 89, but i don't think she plays that UTG.

I'm certainly no expert but here's my thoughts just for fun.

UTG could have...

KQ - Flop bet makes sense with top pair and OESD.

QJs - Flop bet makes sense with two pair.

AT, AJ, KJs, KTs, 99, T9s - Flop bet isn't likely with your read, but is possible.

QTs, JTs - Flop bet makes sense with two pair.

JJ - Lots of people at low limits play timidly with JJ preflop.

The turn provides some more info:

AJ, KQ, QJs, KJs, 99 - She clearly doesn't have these.

AT, KTs, T9s - Still not likely due to your read, but very possible.

QTs, JTs - Obviously possible.

JJ - Full house definitely raises here.

Absent reads, I'd say there are three hands that have you beat, and three you have beat. With reads, obviously this changes. It just depends on how much you trust your reads as to whether you lay this down. Me, I'm not a big reading player, I probably don't lay this down.

I think you out thought yourself. The only player you have to worry about is the turn raiser, and he may just have trips/lower straight, and does not necessarily have a boat.

I would call.

im not folding that turn ever. utg could have a wide variety of hands that you are still ahead of.

i'd also agree in raising the flop. almost everyone will have some piece of this flop.

well, i didn't expect much love on this one, and didn't get it, but results time, i guess:

SB and UTG go to showdown, all others folded on the turn.

SB has T8suited of some kind (i forget), UTG has QT and takes it down.


i gave my read on UTG about 90% certainty for calculating my chances (keep in mind that i'm drawing dead if correct) and will have to call 60 bucks at minimum to see UTG's cards), and here's why (i may not have made this clear enough, but it's tough on read-based hands)--UTG is a good postflop player, but one that will never bluff (not that any semi-competent player would bluff a board like this anyway so multiway). i've seen her bet draws on flops on at least 3 occasions, but EVERY ONE of them was when the preflop raiser, if s/he did raise, would aid UTG with value. i also had 2 hands on her where she didn't bet draws when the pf raiser would **** up her multiway pot. AT and KT were thereby nearly impossible holdings. the only remaining possibility that i beat was some kind of 89, which she wouldn't play UTG.

i didn't intend this as a brag post, either, honestly. i'm just trying to get more live hands into strat where one can take more detailed (mental) notes on what a player does in certain situations. when a strong-ish player does/does not bet draws is very important for live games when 6-7 are seeing most flops.

for the record, if i'm playing online, i call this down 95% of the time, because the game moves too quickly for me to notice things like the draw-betting styles.

I would cold-call the turn bet and fold if it gets capped back to me, otherwise the plan is to call down the rest of the way. You need to think of why utg is raising, a boat is possible, but I'd say something like T9, KT and hit trips or q flopped straight with K9 or 89 just as possible.

You played the hand slow and showed no strength, it shouldn't surprise you if your opponents are going to war with trips or a worst straight since you haven't represented a hand yet.