This was either played very good or very bad.

Party 15/30 6 handed

Preflop:

I raise AKo from CO. Loose button calls. 40/19/4 BB calls (WTSD 35%).

Flop: AT4r

BB checks, I bet, button folds, BB calls.

Turn: T

BB checks, I check

River: 2

BB bets, I call

HAHAHAHAHA.

Lets hear it.

I see what you are trying to do, this guy will bet almost any river when you check behind on the turn.

I like it I think. He would probably fold most pp's when you bet the turn, and he is raising a ten. This way we get to see SD, induce bluffs and we only lose value from Ax hands, but that type of villain would raise his ace on the flop, no?

Yeah, nh.

What stat does the 19 stand for? Is that why you didn't raise the river? BB is a LAG, right?

19 is pf raise %.

Yeah he's a LAG, but he doesn't show down too often, especially for someone who plays that many hands.

What range do you put him on when he calls the flop?

Yeah, we've discussed this idea before.

When you have a hand that is not likely to be outdrawn, checking down the turn can be the most profitable play.
Induces bluffs and minimizes risk.

This seems like it would be a good opportunity to test the technique.

I probably bet again out of habit.
But your play may be the better way to go.




--cm

Make those T's 9's instead and I'd love the turn check.

As is, I think it's pretty close between checking and betting, since by checking you could be giving a gutshot a free card. I'd put villain on Tx or better (93 possible hands, if I counted right), Ax (78 hands), AK (6 hands), or a gutshot (40 hands). The Tx hands can probably be discounted somewhat. There is maybe some chance villain has a PP or a 4.

Without a very good read on villain as to the likelihood of him check/raising without a T, I think checking is probably best, since it's hard to know what to do if raised. But if you think he will rarely check-raise without one, you can fold, and if you think he'll bluff-raise too often, you can call down.

Also, how you anticipate villain playing the river should affect the decision. If villain is highly likely to bluff the river with a busted gutshot if you check behind on the turn, that helps argue for a check. If villain is likely to go for a check-raise again on the river with a T if you check behind on the turn, that helps argue for a bet (since in this case checking behind would only save you one bet (as opposed to bet/call), rather than two).

I'm really seriously thinking that bet/fold might be best here; but I can't decide...

What's your table image? Or is he not really paying attention?
He could have a small pocket pair, a 4, a T, something like Kxs... if he's paying attention to your image, maybe a weak Ace, although I'd expect a raise on the flop. And because LAGs playing passive is suspicious, maybe AA.

Isn't his WTSD a little high? Or is it relatively not that high? Sorry, I have found PT not to be that great a tool so I don't use it much.

Is his not making it to showdown much because he's bullying people, or because he's LAGgy but not too out of line?

Most LAGs I run into are idiots, betting/raising every third hand. I don't think I've ever played against a moderately LAGgy player.

EDIT: Actually, I don't think it matters. If you did induce a bluff, you aren't going to get a call if you raise anyway. You only get a call from a weaker Ace, which he doesn't usually have

I think I like it and this is why.

If hands like KQ KJ QJ that have 4 outs against us but will always bet the river. It is ok for us to give a gutshot the freecard because the pot is so small 4.25 BB so we are not risking much.

Also most pps will value bet the river as well and they only have 2 outs.

We lose the same against 10x but get to see a showdown.

The only downside of this line is if villain has a hand like Ax that he planned on calling down with. In this case i'd say someone with the villains stats would tend to checkraise the flop.

So yea his most likely holdings imo are 2 broadways, 10x, 4x, a pp, then a weakly played Ax. Based on this a check has to be the better play and puts us in an easier situation.

A gutshot has only 3-4 outs against me (as well as 5-6 payoff outs). And the pot really isn't that big. I don't think giving a gutshot a free card is that big a deal. The worst hand to give free cards to would be Ax because I would miss out on value. The thing is, since he is so aggressive, I would expect him to raise Ax here more often than not. So that weights his range more heavily towards Tx, gutshots, and small pocket pairs which probably won't pay off. Also, that T is good for me because if he has a hand like 4x or ace-rag, it means he is drawing slimmer.

Also, if he has a pp or a 4, I don't think that necessarily means he is calling the turn because he has really low showdown stats for a guy that plays so many hands.



I think villian will usually bluff missed draws, occassionally call with weak pairs, and usually bet Tx.

I don't hate it, but I'm betting the turn. I feel like you can possibly lose a few more bets if he has Ax. You can take the pot down right there without having to worry about gunshots hitting. Plus if he has a gunshot and decides to call, good let him draw.

I think he would raise the flop with Ax and bluff the river with a busted gutshot. Does that change your mind?

Somewhat. I read all of the posts after I posted and if he will raise Ax all of the time on the flop it's a decent play to mix it up. However, will he still bluff the river if you bet the turn. If he does this a small percentage isn't this a better play? Plus, if he is so agressive he might bluff check-raise the turn anyways and make a continuation bet on the river.

If this is true then I think this hand is unbelievably easy to play.....