We were down to the final 3 tables in a mtt that started with 470 players. I didn't have much of a read on mhn719, I had only played 12 hands with him, he had raised 3 pf. His stack was pretty short, and I thought he could be moving in with a wide range of cards. Pinko had been playing tight, but his stack was very short and he had just taken a beat. I was getting around 2-1, and was hoping they would both have high cards and have some of each other's outs. My stack was also getting short, and I thought it was a good spot to gamble. Thoughts on the call?


***** Hand History for Game 4345179559 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:23967562 Level:12 Blinds-Antes(1500/3000-75) - Tuesday, May 23, 21:06:40 ET 2006
Table Regular(704024) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: mhn719 ( $16012 )
Seat 2: fruckinluck ( $34009 )
Seat 3: PinkoPanther ( $9158 )
Seat 4: given1982 ( $37829 )
Seat 5: Gomer1968 ( $42337 )
Seat 7: JimBobJim ( $89175 )
Seat 8: RiverRun ( $90614 )
Seat 10: maximus58 ( $28572 )
Trny:23967562 Level:12
Blinds-Antes(1500/3000-75)
mhn719 posts ante [75].
fruckinluck posts ante [75].
PinkoPanther posts ante [75].
given1982 posts ante [75].
Gomer1968 posts ante [75].
JimBobJim posts ante [75].
RiverRun posts ante [75].
maximus58 posts ante [75].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to given1982 [ 6d 6s ]
Gomer1968 folds.
JimBobJim folds.
RiverRun folds.
maximus58 folds.
mhn719 is all-In.
fruckinluck folds.
PinkoPanther is all-In.
fruckinluck: gl
given1982 calls [12937].

I think it's good.

if your goal is to make big bucks, this is a decent gamble

you're likely to lose, but that won't impact you too badly..if you fold, you're going to have to find spots soon to make moves anyhow.

if you win..you'look to be in decent shape to make some headway.

Its not that bad a play here. You are not out (but are crippled) if you call and lose, but if you win this hand you are in great shape. Folding wouldn't be held against you either since you need to beat two hands with your small pocket pair.

You're in the blind right? If so, I think this call's almost mandatory given your and and chip position.

Yes, I was in the big blind. Sorry, I didn't realize the hand history didn't make that clear. That's how I was getting 2-1.

odds are compelling, but i don't think i'm overcalling for almost half my stack in this spot.

I think the payout structure is important in this decision. Assuming you're in the money and the payout is very final table heavy as in most online MTTs then it really encourages a call here. Typically there's little to gain moving from 25 to 18 on the payouts but a lot to gain going from 25 to 10.

nfw.

Those who are calling with 66 here, are you calling with 22-55?

I think you have to give the 2nd all-in a little more credit as he is CALLING all-in...he may do it with AK or AQ, but other than that he's got a bigger pair than you, and so you're not getting a good price 2:1 when you're likely fighting for the sidepot.

There is no certainty here that if you beat the big stack you'll beat the short stack, and there's no certainty that if you don't win the second stack will. There is a real possibility here of tripling up the shortstack and helping out the other guy while crippling yourself.

Your best-case scenario is likely dodging 4 live cards twice. Your best hope is likely tripling up the shortstack and knocking out the other guy.


Here are the scenarios if you call:

mhn out
pinko 27000
you 36000

OR

mhn 41000
you 22000
pinko out

OR

pinko 27000
mhn 14000
you 22000

OR

you 63000 (M 12 instead of 8)
pinko/mhn out

if you fold

mhn 7000
pinko 18000
you 38000

OR

mhn 25000
you 38000

So, which of those scenarios is most desirable...which are most likely, and does the reward of the ONE desirable situation from calling outweigh the risks and downfalls of the three other results of calling, compared to what happens if you simply fold to two all-ins in front of you.


Yes, you're gonna have to make some moves soon, but calling two all-ins wit 66 isn't a "move" is it?

No way I call here if that's the range I put him on. But I don't think we have to give him that much credit, even though he's calling all-in. He has an M of 2, 1/6 of his stack is in the small blind, and he's facing a push from the CO, who it has been folded around to, and who has an M of 3. I was thinking of a range more like any pair or any 2 cards over 10.

If you lose you're down to 7 bb's and have to get lucky.
The 9k short stack could have any two cards, but to open push, mhn is at worst 48%. This is a bad spot to CALL with 6-6. If positions were reversed, there's nothing wrong with pushing with 6-6, but the above is a horrendous call.

I was wrong.

Fold.

I did the math assuming only a flop, no turn or river.
Since I assume we will have a turn and river on this hand, we should fold

Its similiar to the hand I posted here

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...showtopic=61882

It can not be right to call to all ins with 6's. You are best racing against both players, and if they even have one card different you are dodging 8 cards. Plus you could easily be in big trouble against an overpair. I say fold here.

I am inclined to agree that this is probably a fold. That is what I was hoping to confirm by posting the hand. It turned out as well as I could have hoped, with Mhn having QcJd and Pinko having KcJs, making me about 44% to win, well above the percentage I need to call. But I think far too often I will be up against 2 sets of overs that don't share any cards, or at least 1 overpair to make calling the right decision. Thanks for the input.

Similar, but completely different. I hope you see why...