AKs suited is in the red through 20k hands...maybe this is why?

No real reads on villain, 2nd orbit at table

Hollywood Poker No-Limit Hold'em $2.00 BB (10 handed)

Relevant Stack Sizes

Hero (MP2); $230
Villain (CO); $87

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K
4 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, Villain calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) A 10 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Villain (min) raises to $30, Hero ...?

I am just going to let people have a go at it before adding anything.

Definitely smells like a set
But I probably pay it off since he only has $50 left after the min raise

It's either a set, AT or Ax...tough call.

I don't think you can let this hand go. You're ahead of a number of hands here that make this play:

AK, AQ, AJ. Also a lot of players with QQ, JJ, 99, or 88 would make this play since this flop could easily have missed you, but they know you are betting the flop no matter what since you were the pf raiser.

I call, and check turn. If he checks behind, I bet river. If he moves in on the turn, I most likely call.

Mark

My thoughts were that it was more propable that he had me beat with 1010, 99, A10 or A9 vs him having AQ, AJ, or QQ/JJ. His short stack makes it more inviting to call but I still don't feel good about the call and think I can should be able to get away from hands like this.