Full Version: Kk, Bad Flop
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Huh? Where do you want to fold?
first off, why no raise on the river?
the most important PT stat would be his AF. without knowing his AF im not sure what i would do here. its especially difficult because its still 3-handed.
the most important PT stat would be his AF. without knowing his AF im not sure what i would do here. its especially difficult because its still 3-handed.
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QUOTE (amarillotg @ Friday, May 19th, 2006, 8:25 AM) 
first off, why no raise on the river?
the most important PT stat would be his AF. without knowing his AF im not sure what i would do here. its especially difficult because its still 3-handed.
the most important PT stat would be his AF. without knowing his AF im not sure what i would do here. its especially difficult because its still 3-handed.
why did you not raise the river?
QUOTE (strategy @ Saturday, May 20th, 2006, 4:05 AM)
1. I was kinda hoping to get an overcall from a jack. I didn't even consider raising the river at the time, but it seems like the better play.
2. His AF numbers are...
PF: .07
flop: .40
turn: 1.83
river: 1.60
total: .50
Just because I was curious... here's mine from the last two weeks or so, about 1500 hands:
PF: 1.36
Flop: 4.31
Turn: 3.08
River: .85
total: 1.98
And mine from the few months preceeding that:
PF: .78
F: 1.91
T: 2.33
R: 1.96
total: 1.35
Glancing over all of my LHE stats, I seem to have shifted from an ~2AF on the flop, turn, and river to a 2-3AF on the flop and turn and significantly less on the river. Think I'm missing out on a bunch of value?
I've probably played a little less than 10,000 hands in the last few months, so this is all based on a small sample.
2. His AF numbers are...
PF: .07
flop: .40
turn: 1.83
river: 1.60
total: .50
Just because I was curious... here's mine from the last two weeks or so, about 1500 hands:
PF: 1.36
Flop: 4.31
Turn: 3.08
River: .85
total: 1.98
And mine from the few months preceeding that:
PF: .78
F: 1.91
T: 2.33
R: 1.96
total: 1.35
Glancing over all of my LHE stats, I seem to have shifted from an ~2AF on the flop, turn, and river to a 2-3AF on the flop and turn and significantly less on the river. Think I'm missing out on a bunch of value?
I've probably played a little less than 10,000 hands in the last few months, so this is all based on a small sample.
While I realize your sample is small, that AF is tiny, except for the fact that you should take out preflop AF when calculating total AF... Let me look at mine with PF and I'll give you a comparaison... ok... scratch that. My AF is 1.5 including PF. Ignore my entire post.
- Zach
This is a tough bet to understand. The biggest question to ask is, why didn't he check raise. The answer has to be, he was scared you weren't going to bet. Even if he picked up a flush draw to go with his straight draw he still isn't getting enough equity to bet out, not to mention the threat of a re-raise.
The only way he's betting out is if he's trying to steal the pot, but who tries to steal when two aces are on board in a raised pot. Two threes, sure, but two aces, that just doesn't make sense.
I think you have to call, but you're probably beat. He was clearly worried about his kicker on the flop (or was waiting to re-raise on the turn) but either way he's decided he's ahead and is scared you might not bet. I still call down because people are unpredictable, and if you're gonna call down, why not raise!
If you get re-raised you can safely throw the hand away. It will cost you the same two big bets that calling the turn and river will. If you're ahead you get more value, if you're behind it costs you the same, plus it has like a 1% chance of knocking UTG out. Don't raise a maniac though if you think he will reraise you with anything you can beat. In that case just call down. But if he'll merely call with an ace, and not bet out on the river regardless, then you're okay to reraise.
Obviously in this case if he's holding an ace he's going to bet the river, but the other 47 times he may not bet out after getting re-raised on the turn.
The only way he's betting out is if he's trying to steal the pot, but who tries to steal when two aces are on board in a raised pot. Two threes, sure, but two aces, that just doesn't make sense.
I think you have to call, but you're probably beat. He was clearly worried about his kicker on the flop (or was waiting to re-raise on the turn) but either way he's decided he's ahead and is scared you might not bet. I still call down because people are unpredictable, and if you're gonna call down, why not raise!
If you get re-raised you can safely throw the hand away. It will cost you the same two big bets that calling the turn and river will. If you're ahead you get more value, if you're behind it costs you the same, plus it has like a 1% chance of knocking UTG out. Don't raise a maniac though if you think he will reraise you with anything you can beat. In that case just call down. But if he'll merely call with an ace, and not bet out on the river regardless, then you're okay to reraise.
Obviously in this case if he's holding an ace he's going to bet the river, but the other 47 times he may not bet out after getting re-raised on the turn.
QUOTE (strategy @ Friday, May 19th, 2006, 2:27 AM)
CO has about 50% VP$IP, 4% PFR.
Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K
, K 
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1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Flop: (10.40 SB) J
, 7 , A 
(3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Turn: (6.70 BB) A (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.
River: (9.70 BB) A (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.
Final Pot: 12.70 BB
Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K
, K . 1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Flop: (10.40 SB) J
, 7 , A (3 players)UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Turn: (6.70 BB) A
(3 players)UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.
River: (9.70 BB) A
(3 players)UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.
Final Pot: 12.70 BB
im going to say raise the turn. its so unnatural for him to lead with an Ace here. if he had any kind of hand that is beating you he would be c/r the turn. he probably has a J and since the second Ace fell he doesn't believe for an Ace.
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If you are thinking about folding the turn when the CO bets and your intending to call down anyway you should raise the turn for a free showdown. By doing this you might even get both players to fold right there or maybe just get the CO heads up and when he checks to you on the river check behind. If you choose this line though fold to a 3-bet on the turn.
Just a thought
Just a thought
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