Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: econ_tim is BB with 8, T.
2 folds, Button raises, SB calls, econ_tim calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8, K, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, econ_tim checks, Button bets, SB calls, econ_tim calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, econ_tim bets, . . .



PFR is 50/20/1.5, SB is 40/0/0.75, no real reads

I checkraise flop and go from there.

Folding to any raise right? You c/r the flop if SB folds?

The only real benefit I can see about checking the turn is if button bets and SB raises, in which case you save a bet. But betting out here is definitely better to prevent the turn gettin checked thru, and also because you probably have to c/c the turn anyways.

This looks good Tim.

i'd split this kind of situation about 50/50 raising the flop and donking the turn. but nh.

you're folding if you get turn raised, right?

Check raising the flop doesn't seem to accomplish much.
It's not protecting anything.
And it's building a pot with a very marginal hand.

I usually lead this flop.
This increases the chances that we get rid of SB, which helps our winning chances greatly.

I assume you only waited to the turn to make sure a safe card fell?
And you wouldn't be leading this turn if another overcard hit?

--cm

So you're the ******* that keeps donking my AQ on these boards?

I was also thinking about whether leading or checking the flop is better...

I think leading the flop is only better if button is a known auto-raiser in these spots. Otherwise, if we lead this flop, better hands (a K or a better 8) and equal hands (a flush draw with one or two high cards) will raise, and worse hands will fold or call (and a call with two high cards would be roughly correct against our hand). So why bet when we can't force a major mistake, and when that bet will presumably go in anyway (in other words, assuming button will bet, checking won't cost us anything, and may save us some money).

I think checking lets us get better value and get better information. If button bets and SB raises, we can fold. If button bets and SB folds, we can raise (unless we know button is that rare player who does not normally make continuation bets; then we can fold). And if button bets and SB calls, I agree that Tim's float is the best play; button will be hard-pressed to raise the turn with a worse hand than ours with SB hanging around. (And if button checks, we proceed with caution; I usually assume this is a strong hand unless I've already seen button fail to bet in these spots when he misses.)

I want SB to fold his A9, JTs, etc hands.
He would have 6 outs to beat us. <edited>
But against a donk bet and a preflop raiser, he would be hard pressed to think he should call even 1 flop bet.



If PR missed, then SB likely does have correct odds to peel the turn with his overcards to our pair of 8's.
Getting him to fold these overcards would be profitable for us as he would be making a mistake.




--cm

Why would SB be more likely to call if we check and the raiser bet than if we bet and the raiser called? In the first case, he'd be getting 7-1 immediate and not closing the action; in the second, he'd be getting 8-1 and closing the action.

Also, unless he has backdoor outs, he only has 6 outs if he has overcards, and they might not be enough to win. And even if SB has AsQc and button missed, he would only be making a minor mistake if he folded (and he certainly wouldn't fold that hand if you bet and button called).

My thoughts:

BB (us) will rarely be donk-betting this flop into 2 opponents with air.
SB will have to take this into consideration and realize that our bet certainly may have destroyed some of his outs.

This fact, coupled with the possible domination of the Button's hand will usually force SB to fold his overcards.
Do you overcall a donk bet and a preflop raiser if you hold a hand like A9 or JT in the SB?

If BB checks and Button makes a continuation bet, this situation seems much less menacing than the first.
Even though SB wouldn't be closing the action in this situation, there shouldn't be significant fear of BB.

Point: a BB bet will scare SB more than a check.

--cm

your reasoning is good if SB is a thinking player. since he plays 40% of hands, though, he might not be disciplined enough to fold even when he thinks he has only 3 outs.

Ha. Love those players.