UTG is a 45/8/3 over a relatively small sample
UTG+1 is a 26/16/2 over 500+ hands

Just felt crappy everywhere, ideas?


PokerStars 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A.
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9, 3, A (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 6 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.75 BB) J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls

I don't 3-bet the flop. When the pf raiser raises, you are probably behind.

I don't call the turn raise. Yeah, you just outdrew UTG. But UTG+1 made his flush.

UTG is the lag. UTG+1 is the preflop raiser.

i can't imagine you're good on this river unless i have more detailed reads on what these guys will do with certain types of hands.

everything else actually looks reasonable to me in an aggressive game, but i don't 3-bet the flop but maybe 20% of the time.

i am guessing for fun:

UTG has some weird ace, maybe with spades, maybe 2p.
UTG+1 has a set of 9s

if i'm right, can i have a cookie?

Assuming you meant river raise, it boggles the mind what flush UTG+1 has in this spot. I'd say that it seems likely we're splitting with him or against a set. As for UTG, A9/A3/Asxs or a set seem likely enough. I don't mind calling the river if we're confident that UTG isn't going to pop it again.

My mistake.

Played well then. There are realistically only 3 flushes that UTG+1 can have, and 4 ways he could have AJ - though he would play a flush this way more often. He may also know something about UTG that you don't, and may be trying to push you off a better hand.

UTG could have a set, but he may also have a weaker two pair, or just Ax.

Luckily you don't have to worry about UTG 3-betting here (he doesn't have the flush), so you are basically closing the action. You will probably lose, but the pot is big, and you are getting more than enough to call. Pokerstove has you at ~15% equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,398,946 games 64.031 secs 302,961 games/sec

Board: Ac 9s 3s 6c Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 14.7164 % 00.00% 14.72% { AdJd }
Hand 2: 71.1319 % 56.42% 14.72% { AJs, KcQc, KcTc, QcTc, AJo }
Hand 3: 14.1517 % 13.40% 00.75% { 99, 33, AJs-A3s, AJo-A9o }


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Edit: That 15% equity comes from tieing. You will only split the pot. You should fold the river.

You have to fold this river.

UTG+1 woke up, and I highly doubt he is doing this with worse than two pair.

I think.

I'm rusty, but for two cold, it's gotta be a fold.

- Zach