MP has stats that indicate he is not insane. Rest of players have stats too. Nothing that stands out too much to influence the hand though.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J.
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 9, T, K (4 players)
BB bets, MP calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) A (4 players)
BB checks, MP bets, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (14.25 BB) 7 (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Me what?

I have no idea what to do here.

Comments on all streets, especially the turn and river.

I think you should bet. Button has either been really slowplaying KK (unlikely), but more likely has QQ/JJ. I really don't see any hand BB/MP use that line with that beats you.

However, I think raising the turn might be a good idea. It's an easy fold if either button/BB 3-bet, but also because you may fold hands better than yours, ie AQ, T9s, another AJ... Furthermore, hands like A8s, which could tie your hand if another 9 or T falls on the river, will likely fold. Also, I think this makes the river easier to play since you will likely be HU.

Good analysis.

Few questions:

1) How many outs on average do you think BB has agianst me (given it is obvious he has QQ/JJ now)?

2) What range do you put MP and BB on on the turn?

3) What range do you put MP and BB on on the river?

Edit: Keep in mind they are reasonable. No one with a VPIP of >35 or a pfr% > 22. Afs range from 1-2.

I don't like raising the turn.

We have a marginal hand.
But we have some decent draws that could be best.
I would like to see this river.



Raising opens things up unnecessarily.
It could prove expensive.
And I don't want to make an "easy fold" and not see a showdown.



The key is to decide if the benefit of the raise compensates for the risk involved.
I don't think it does.

One large benefit of raising would obviously be to get better hands to fold.
But in a pot this large, I don't see this happening.
If someone decided to play T9s or AQ in ths capped pot, then I don't think they are going to fold it now after they have hit a solid piece.



I think there is a good chance you are still behind on the river.
However, you are likely going to win this pot over 25% of the time.
And it does not look like you have to fear a raise.
So a value bet on the river seems profitable.


--cm

So if I win over 25% of the time, that means all 4 opponents have to call. Even the ones with QQ/JJ. Hmm...I don't think that will happen.

The only value I get is if MP has exactly A8 (or maybe some weird KQ type hand), and if BB doesn't have an ace. That's a pretty big parlay, I mean, we already know button has QQ/JJ, so that means BB - assuming he is somewhat reasonable - would have to have the other QQ/JJ (keeping in mind I have a J).

BB led this flop into 3 preflop raisers.
I don't think he does this with only a draw.
He has a piece already (probably the K).
And if he is overcalling 3 opponents on the turn when the Ace hits, I can see him calling 1 more when a blank falls on the river.

MP led the turn against 3 opponents when a very scary card hit.
He then checked the river when a blank fell.
He doesn't have the flush or the straight.
But he has enough that he will call the river.

If these two opponents had just been caling down (like the button), then I would think that they would be likely to fold the river when they missed their draws.
But the fact that BB and MP have shown some aggression in this big pot makes me believe they will see this showdown.

Now the odds of you currently having the best hand is certainly debatable.
I can be convinced that those odds are too small to bet this river for value even if we knew 2 callers would follow.
On the spot, I would likely be satisfied with checking this one down.

--cm

1) I'm assuming you meant button. I think he has 1 J out if he has JJ, and 8 diamond outs if he has QxQd. So, I'll estimate him for 5 outs. This may be a little high though, as poker stove is giving him about 7% equity on the turn (abt 3.5 outs) with the ranges I've assigned.

2 and 3) I'm not changing their ranges that much on the turn and the river:
MP: AQs, AJs, A8s, AQo, AJo
BB: QQ-JJ, KJs+, KJo+

Against these ranges, here is your equity on the turn:
You: 35%
MP: 44%
Button: 7%
BB: 14%

Here's the thing though, and this is what I'm disagreeing with CM about (although you may be right!): I'd like to raise this turn.

I don't like raising the turn.

We have a marginal hand.
But we have some decent draws that could be best.
I would like to see this river.

I don't think we have any draw really, other than the gutshot. If a diamond falls on the river, its hard to know if we are ahead or not. But raising the turn can have some huge benefits:

1) We may fold someone with the Qd. The Kd is likely not out there, unless BB has it with one of his KQ/KJ hands. However, we put tremondous pressure on the Qd to get out, and this could buy us alot of outs.

2) MP, likely the only player who can potentially beat us, may laydown the hands that beat us/split with us. This is probably more true if he does'nt have the Qd.

3) Finally, if we are called and a blank hits on the river, we can probably bet again provided that MP is out of the hand. Otherwise, we check behind.

Oh, and I'd like to take back something I said earlier:
It's an easy fold if either button/BB 3-bet

It's not an easy fold, my bad!

Little off topic:

1) How do you do the multiple quote thingy in the same post?
2) Is there anyway to save hand ranges that I've done in poker stove?
For example, say I assign a range to certain players. After saving and reopening this file, will there ranges still appear in the "Player 1, Player 2, etc" boxes?

1) Just wrap the box in the [ quote][ /quote] box.
2) I have no idea.

With regards to the hand, I think you are:

1) overestimating how often I get a good draw or a better hand to fold the turn

2) giving hand ranges that are way too wide for BB. He called 3 cold to a cap. I think he has QQ/JJ/AK/AQ. He won't call the rive with QQ/JJ (and neither will button). So if they don't have me beat, than I have to have MP beat > 50% of the time to value bet. Factor in that BB will occassionally have me beat with something like AQ, and I have to win more.

Anyway, I bet the river. Button and BB folded. MP called and won with ATo. I curse my overeagerness to value bet.

If you were MP, would you have value bet your two pair on that river?

Of course. I am over-zealous when it comes to my value bets.