Dratj
Tuesday, May 16th, 2006, 10:45 AM
QUOTE (PimpRock @ Monday, May 15th, 2006, 2:59 PM)

I gotta be honest... Im not sure calling is negative EV here.
First let me say it could be a great laydown... but I think the action here is completely read dependant.
I genuinely dont think he has a straight because why would he want to completely kill his action here with the nuts?
Set, maybe, but its not a horrible looking board for a set and in an unraised pot I think I would be expecting a checkraise, not a bet call on the flop.
I think if you made the call here you would see 99s/10s/JJ fairly often... Possibly 7/2 or 4/2
Im not necessarily advocating the call, and I think it could have been a good laydown, but honestly, I think from the betting patterns that without knowing the player, I make this call more often than not. If he is good (TAG / SLAG) or known to semi bluff or overbet nut hands then obviously we know were beat but damn... I cant tell you how strongly I feel he has 10s.
would you push greater than pot size with an overpair as weak as tens? You are only going to get called by a better hand than yours. Besides I've already demonstrated strength by raising the flop considerably.
Player seemed fairly tight so i chose to pick another battle.