villain 18/16/3.5 after 60 hands
He appears to be a good TAG from the 4 SDs I've seen

btw limper suuuuux

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 8.
UTG calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9, J, A (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero 3-bets, planning on betting any turn


???????????

Why are you planning on betting the turn?

Getting a free card here is great. Your hand has no showdown value (duh), and getting check/raised again sucks (though it's unlikely). I don't know how good your FoldEquity is; actually, it's likely poor: he's probably got a hand.

I say take the free card, and just try to get the two bets in on the river if you come through, as he'll likely lead anyway.

Oh, I'd probably bet if an offsuit 7 comes (giving you an OESD, too). Betting a T is tougher, but still doable. Might even be able to bet a 5 (gutshot). I don't like auto-betting this turn, but have no problem betting when you pick up additional outs.

Don't get crazy.

Wang


EDIT- Against a strong player, capable of folding to a turn raise, you might want to consider calling the flop raise, and raising any flush card (duh), any 6 7 or 8, and maybe any T. Like I said, though, the T is probably iffy (he's coming along with any Q or 8), and raising the 8 poses similar problems if he's raising QT here.

I don't see much point in 3-betting the flop beyond getting a free turn card, and that's not that reliable against someone with a 3.5 AF.

As Wang alluded to, our fold equity is almost nonexistant (multitabling TAGs don't just randomly bluff at ace high flops), so we accomplish nothing with a turn bet since we will likely face an equity deficit if we don't hit our outs, or cards to give us more outs.

I think we should call the flop raise and plan on calling down, and raising if we hit our outs. Semi-bluffing the turn on, say, a 7, wouldn't be very effective because we aren't getting a better hand to fold.

The flop 3-bet isn't as bad as you think it is, in position, as it earns us a free card most of the time. If he's got a monster, he'll almost always try and get an extra big bet in on the turn by check-raising.

Flop 3-bet = fine

Auto turnbet = not fine

Wang

PS- AlphaOmega's been playing contrarian with me all day. I'll be honest: it's attractive

unless your hoping to make higher flush draws fold, your bet on the turn makes no sence. i check the flop

Here was my thinking.
There are almost hands villain could possible have that would put anymore pressure on me. Sets raise PF for sure, as does AJ, and A9 most likely leads.
So the only hand that I get in a lot of trouble iwth is A9, but again it needs to be discounted because I think it leads this very scary flop the vast majority of the time.

I think this certainly means I should 3-bet the turn, so the question is whether or not I should take the free card.

I think the majority of the time his line is consistent with a mediocre hand. It would make sense for him to check jx and then raise my bet, since he knows I would bet a wide range of hands here. It would also make sense for him to have ace-rag here, though it's slightly less likely than Jx because he would tend to lead Ax a lot more than Jx.
If I 3-bet the flop and bet the turn, a TAG will certainly fold Jx, and he might fold Ax as well.
Without doing calculations because I'm really lazy, Jx is probably ~40% or more of his range. So I think my fold equity makes the turn a bet.
Oh, and a final advantage of betting the turn is I get a free SD if I river a 6 or 8, on the off chance he's been on a draw this whole time or something.

I think the likelihood of someone with a VP$IP of 18 completing the SB with Jx is pretty slim compared to them completing Ax. If it is Jx, the x is probably good, and that increases the chance that he shows down, and reduces our fold equity. The likelihood of him drawing is also slim, as he would probably want to encourage others to come along.

What does he think of you? Are you LAG or TAG this session? Is he a decent hand reader? Judging by your pre-flop limp, your hand range has to be pretty wide. He might go as far as to think that any ace would have isolated the limper in your position, thereby putting you on a draw, which would ruin our plans of getting that free card.

I'm looking at that 3.5 AF as well.

The two issues with this hand are our turn fold equity, and the likelihood of us getting a free card. I don't think we get a free turn card as often as we get capped on the flop or led into on the turn, and I'm basing this assertion on the villain's hand reading skills, AF, and his flop check/raise. Our fold equity is slim as well considering the villain's hand range, or at least the one I'm putting him on. I think that his actions pre-flop and post-flop indicate that he has a good hand that he's going to showdown, and I don't think he's folding Ax unless you're viewed as a nit. I doubt that that's your table image.