PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($36.05)
BB ($42.00)
UTG ($39.00)
Hero ($99.45)
MP1 ($20.20)
MP2 ($19.55)
CO ($98.55)
Button ($38.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9 , 9 .
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.5, 4 folds, SB raises to $5.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.75.

Flop: ($11) A , 3 , 6 (2 players)
SB bets $4, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $10

His weak lead makes me like the raise. Now our line if he smooth calls flop is?

I like the raise. Obvious fold if he reraises. I lead the turn for just under the pot if he smooth calls the flop. If he reluctantly calls the turn, I lead the river as well, but I only do so if I am reasonably sure he folds.

Probably just shut down.

I too like the raise, and also think shutting down after a call is appropriate.

I like the raise, but I'm not sure it's enough to drive him off his hand, particularly at these levels. He's only got to call $6 into a $25 pot. I think raising to something in the area of $18 is better. Unfortunately, his stack is so small, that if he decides not to believe you, he's probably just going to push and your stuck looking at calling $13 more into a $60 pot, which is great odds, but your almost certainly dead to 2 outs. So, maybe a raise more like $13, which would commit half his stack (which he may not want to do) without enticing him to push. And I agree with shutting down if he calls.

Not sure if you had a read on him or not, but my range for him pre-flop would be JJ-AA, AK, and maybe AQ. His weak lead looks like he's got JJ-KK and wants to see if you you've got an Ace or not. I'm not convinced a $6 raise will convince him.

This is why I posted the hand. Not even so much the fact that I raised, but w/ the amount that I did. It actually kinda goes along w/ the fact that i'm going to shutdown on the turn to. i figured for himi to call the bet, and w/ me having position, he has to make a decision whether or not he's going to call down as I would think he would expect more bets. The reason I bet 10 and not 12-18 is that I thought it had the same fold equity and I'm betting 10 to win 14. He needs to fold less times not make it profitable. I wonder how often some one w/ KK will get stubborn here and call the raise.

I can't give you an exact percentage, but I can say it's not uncommon for JJ-KK to call that raise at these levels.

And, my hand range for the villain was assuming he's TAG. I've seen LAG's at this level make this type of play (as a lot of them won't respect a 3xBB raise, even from EP) with Ace-x suited. This type of player will definitely call your small raise, figuring to see what you'll do on the turn. I think the larger raise has a better chance of shaking him off his weak ace. However, without the read, I'd go with defaulting to TAG. And, given the stack sizes, your choice of raise size may be best. If nothing else, it will probably buy you two more chances to spike your set.

yeah, he was TAG. my range for himi was AA-jj. Ak 1% of the time.

I definitely prefer to raise to something like $12 here to not give him too much encouragement to stay in. If he calls that, then you know he's really got a hand and you can safely shut down.

Maybe I'm weak/tight but why are we calling the reraise preflop? I don't think we have enough implied odds to hit a set, and we are going to run into overpairs a large amount of the time.

We do not always need to hit a set to win the hand. We very likely win this hand if Villain has KK by representing the A. A good read on Villain allows us to win a lot of hands when we do not improve and makes up EV. Whether it makes up enough EV is opponent dependent. If Villain is good enough to lay down an over pair to an all under board if you represent a set, then you are going to pick up a ton of pots. If he catches you, just as well because everyone at the table is going to start trying to pick off bluffs from you, which means your real hands get paid off.

I think the SB's weak lead is invitational and that he has an A with a good kicker or he paired up his crap kicker. The raise is good, but I'd be reluctant to do that with an A on board. I tend to be inexperienced and weak-tight, though, so what the eff do I know?

There are two things I would want to learn here. I want him to tell me 1. if he has the ace or a monster and 2. move him off JJ, QQ, KK. In order to do that, I have to bet 12 to 18. If he calls, you figure him to have you beat and can check/fold the turn.

Betting 10 is a weird amount and makes it hard for him to read you (good), but I don't know what you can tell about his hand if he calls you (bad). If I had KK here as the villian, I'd call the raise and bet out on the turn. Calling and betting out would be consistent with representing a monster.

Nah. The fact the villain re-raises out of the SB preflop means that it's more likely he has JJ-KK here instead of an A. What hand with an A reraises out of the small blind that isn't AA or AK? The balance of hands here is skewed towards him not having an A given preflop action. 18 ways to make JJ-KK, 15 ways to make AA/AK - and a lot of people just smooth call raises in the blinds with AK. This is a good time to represent the A with a raise.

Good point, what read?

I think you are just "making up EV."