4 handed, at a friend's house a couple weeks ago, so I don't remember the specifics. Villain in the hand was a good, thinking player, said he played 10/20 and some 20/40 on party.

RISE is button with A J
1 fold, RISE raises, SB folds, BB calls

Flop:(4 SB)J 8 4
SB checks, RISE bets, SB raises, RISE 3-bets, SB calls

Turn:(5 BB) K
SB bets, RISE calls

River:(7 BB) 2
SB checks, RISE bets....

I should really start reading these more closely... I missed another action. I think I call down, after the turn lead.

check behind.
What's a good player calling with here, after betting the turn?
The board is draw light on the flop, so I don't see him pulling an SnG to charge draws.

I'd expect to see 88, KJ enough times to check behind.
Maybe weak.

you dont think KJ or 88 are betting the river?

also, forgot to mention that he was solid, but called almost every single one of my raises pf from the BB.

my whole thought process on this hand went like this:
pf standard.

flop, his c/r tells me he had part of this flop, J or 8 maybe. standard 3-bet

Turn, his bet doesn't necessarily mean a K. he knows im a decent player and can make good laydowns when i need to, so he may be semi bluffing the K (i'm still assuming he has atleast a pair). if i raise i lose the same when he 3-bets and i fold as i do going to sd, and i lose the chance to outdraw him. If i raise and he has nothing (or just an 8 or weak J) he folds and i dont win anymore. So I call

River his check tells me he doesnt have a K or anything big or he would've value bet, so I assume my 2nd pair A kicker is good and I bet, hoping he calls with a worse J or an 8.

yes, I'd think he would bet the river with any hand that beats you.
I think if he had KJ,88 type hand, he's hoping you raise the turn.

But, since you did not raise the turn, he figures you for worse than KJ, but based on flop and turn, is confident that you will bet if checked too.
I presume you have shown the tendency to value bet and he's relying on that here.

Or .. as you say, he has a weaker J.
And if he's loose from the BB, that is more likely...than if he's tight.

Can you fold to a river c/r?

Yes, you are good a lot here, jsut not enoguh against a good player, to withstand a c/r.

I think.

what on the flop and turn suggests i will bet if checked to on the river?

you 3-bet the flop and called the turn.
wHat do you mean?
There are no draws so you like your hand.
Have you been value betting?
Can you be relied on here to bet?

yes i have been value betting, but after i just call his turn bet, i dont think he thinks im betting the river 100% of the time. I could play this hand the same way with TT or AQ, AT possibly.

If I can fold to a c/r, do you like the river bet?

Say you will bet 60% if checked to and call a c/r 70% and would call his lead 90%...he makes more checking.....

your math hurts my head.
but out of 100 times this hand happens, 42 of those times I call a c/r (60 x .70), which means he makes 84 bets, if 90% of the time I call his lead, he makes 90 bets....so, youre wrong.

you forgot the 60 times he makes one bet when you fold to the c/r.

(0.4 * 0) + (0.6 * 0.3 * 1) + (0.6 * 0.7 * 2) = 0 + 0.18 + 0.84 = 1.02

= You dont Bet + You bet and fold + You bet and call

1.02 > 0.9.


Please apologize.

but he makes the same as c/c and risks being 3-bet. so...youre right...but its close and i refuse to apologize

EDIT: plus you pulled those numbers out of your ***, so you can make them correct or not. Say I fold to a c/r 75% of the time. then (0.4*0)+(0.6*0.75*1)+(0.6*0.25*2) = 0.75
and he makes more by betting

he makes more with a c/r, and consider I was pretty conservative on my assumptions of your betting/calling c/r, imo.



I'd expect nothing more.

with the way this hand was played i never expect to see 88. If somebody plays 88 this way they deserve to be broke. May be kj but never 88

yeah...sure....

You guys are being silly. Even considering to not bet that river is just out thinking yourselves.

you bet/call or bet/fold?

still silly?

to me when he says i play on party 10/20 20/40, he is doing it imo to make you think he is great so he can make great steals. not sure it fits in here but...

threebet, whats another dollar?

now that i look at it again a few days later, i think he either has you beat or has something like 910 that he isnt going to call with. i really don't think youre getting checkraised here, but i dont think there is much value in a bet either. this is assuming he is decent.