First hand on UB $50+5. Folds to me in MP with AQ diamonds. Blinds are 10-20 everyone starts with $1,500. I raise to $70, and there is one caller (CO). Flop is Q-5-8 with two hearts. Pot is $170 I bet $130 and he calls. Turn is offsuit 2. Pot is $430 I bet $300 he moves all-in.

I put him on middle pair or good Ace when he called pre-flop, but that is just a general read for a call in this situation. He could have suited connectors that hit this flop as well, and a set is always possible. Ak? Maybe. Just making a move? Maybe.

If I fold, i still have $1,000 in chips. If I call and lose I am out, call and win I have $3,000 while everyone else has $1,500.

Since this is the first hand of the SNG and I never played with him before (only second time in $50 SNG), what do you do?

Sucks to have TPTK and be OOP

With no reads and this being a 50+5 SNG where survival is more important, I would fold here. I would have to give villain credit for hitting a set or even two pair (deep stacks, he could be playing junk like 85s or Q8s easily)

very tough spot to be in, I would tend to give 50+5 players the benefit of probably being good and fold. (probably a bad idea, but who knows)

It's read dependent, and since we have no read....well what can we do? If you want to gamble, flip a quarter and go from there (if it's lands heads it's always call).

I would fold.

Why risk your life on top pair top kicker. (especially on the first hand)

He took the hand away from you with the all-in bet.

I think there are 4 hands you can put this guy on. AA, KK, AQ or a flush draw. 3 out of the 4 have a very bad outcome.

You still have chips. Blinds are low.

Throw it away and fight another day.

Fold - and remember.

Either he's got you bent over like a cheap cane.


Or he's overplaying/bluffing...and he'll do it again.

Concur. Don't go broke with one pair. I think pre-flop raise of 70 might be too low. I know many would disagree.

Level one, the implied odds are huge for small cards. Heftier raise would be the play for me. Perhaps 120-150.

UB has the convenient "Bet Pot" button that people there use religiously, hence the 70 chip bet.

I am finding that a 3-4x BB in online tourneys, especially in the first few levels, is almost equivalent to minraising in a live tourney.

i would say not making a move, maybe an all in from JJ, 10 10 maybe

I've been playing a bunch of $55 sng's and haven't noticed a great improvement of skill from the $11 and $22's. (Although it's party, so ya never know)

AA and KK flat call pf? Really?...I dont think so
AA and KK flat call flop w/ flush draw? Really?...I dont think so

Now I think a set is a high possibility, as 55 and 88 play this similarly..

Like someone else said, if you want to gambool w/ out a read, call...

Take the small loss and go from here...fold

I fold, fast.
I also bet 200-220 on turn

***** read replies ********

yeah, if we're beat.. its a set, or possible two pair looking to hit big at this stage. They probably waited for a safe turn to pounce.

maybe it's a move..meh...just outplay them.

He could be semi bluffing a draw..you don't know.

3000t is not really a big deal this early, so risk not worth reward.

I do think you are ahead enough based on Pot odds, but thats not the issue

I call

3k in chips is too tempting

It's a sit n go. Your life doesn't depend on this, if he has a set, you bust out - he could also have AA or KK here.
whoever said that CO couldn't flatcall pf here w/kk and AA, this is a pretty good example of why flatcalling pf works. It's disguised very well.

I don't see him having a 2 pair here...funny guy if he called a pf raise w/q2 in a $50 dollar sng.

He's either got set, flush draw, or he's making a play with 6,7/pocket pair.

Call - you're the boss here - if he doesn't have a set here, show that you're not going to be pushed around. You're willing to gamble and the rest of the table better respect your raises, especially when you start stealing the blinds

In the unlikely case that he does have AA, KK (which for some reason my gut is telling me so), just write a note on him that he's that tricky of a player.




if this was a deepstack tourney, obviously a fold would be better here but it's not. Don't think too much of sit n go's. A gamble w/tptk here is fine in my opinion.

mikey:

then we should push the turn ourselves, no?

I mean..."we';re the Boss"

Boss's don't call off their stacks.

3000t is not important at this stage.

Respect our raises?

No, they'll push into us with two pair and feel confident we'll pay them off.

how is 3000t not important at this stage? You have a stack to gamble and pressure others. It's not all about buying blinds PF - you have the opportunity to take down decent size pots multiple times.

You can push the turn if you want, I like making them pay extra to see the river card.

We dont' know for sure that the pusher has a definite monster here. There are plenty of hands he could be pushing with, including KQ or QJ for that matter - which are hands that are not out of CO's range.

Mikey:

you are not being consistent

You say survival is most important in the AKs hand when blinds are 100/200...and here..you think 3000 is worth risking the tourney on hand 1, with just one pair?

I don't play Bully poker, so maybe I under value a bigger stack here. Sure it lets me see more flops with suited connectors... and steal some orphan pots...

I would reluctantly fold. Your initial read seems plausible enough, but his all-in screams set or Q-8 (w/ flush draw) and he's hoping you'll be confident enough with your hand to call.

true actuary

but there are certain risks I may take at the lower level. The way villain played it just seems fishy. He could very well have a set, but I don't see why he doesn't re-raise the flop. Granted I am curious but there's also a good chance he has an open ender or a flush draw as well.

I believe Bully Poker to be incredibly essential to the SnG game. in SnG's, it later becomes a Chipstack war, not really about skill anymore.


The key with SnG's is to not be emotionally involved in fear of losing. Had villain re-raised the flop all in, I would give him credit for a set and throw the hand away.



OP, you have enough info. From here on it's your read, your gut, that is most important. I gave you my reasons for calling, and everyone else (hee!) gave explanations for folding. Folding isn't a bad option at all, calling is definitely riskier. If you did call, what were the results btw?

I think it's closer than people are giving credit. In my opinion he most likely has 55, 88, or QK, QJ, Q10, then less likely than those is something like 67 suited with the flush draw. I would probably call here, if he flopped a set NH. I feel he would be raising with KK or AA pf or certainly on the flop, I would also think he would raise on the flop with 2 pair, but might try and slowplay the turn with a set. With QK, QJ, Q10, I think it makes sense to see the safe turn then try and push you off.

Is it worth risking the whole tourney when you've got no read and could be beat a number of ways? I would dump it and wait for a stronger spot.

thanks to all players who call me with TPTK here.

I often wait for a safe turn, and get u invested more.

Especially early, when I'd rather you not chase 35% flush draw, just in case.


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Mikey

I disagree with BullyPoker being essential.
It's nice if you have a stack..but it's not hard to win without a big stack early, either.
But I don't risk going broke here to get it.

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do you realize how much of a favorite we need to be here in order for calling to make sense?

personally, I do not have a 3x better Equity with 3000 than I do with 1000, at this stage.

What do the TE equation say is the breakeven point for us to call here?

50% favorite?

maybe I just don't play well with a BigStack, so I don't care as much.\
Big Stack later..great.

Wow- read all the responses, calling with TPTK? That is the easiest way to go bust in a tournament.

Keep calling All ins with TPTK and you will be on the rail before you know it. OP, you made the good effort with TPTK, and when you continued to meet resistence you must assume you are beat. If he was running a bluff, he will do it again. You will get paid.

Thanks for all the responses. In this situation I thought down to the last seconds. My gut just did not believe him so I called and he was on a total bluff. That said, I agree with the fold and would almost always fold here as well (especially after all the discussion points).

In fact it helped me in a cash game yesterday when a very similar hand occured and the guy pushed the turn for seven times the pot. I folded tptk and he showed two pair. Before I folded I thought about all the posts here and decided there was no option but to fold.

Thanks.