Donkey
Thursday, May 4th, 2006, 1:17 PM
I was playing a live poker league tourney. There were 40 players and 4 pay out, and we are 5 handed.
blinds are 1.5/3 k
payout is
1. 850
2. 450
3. 225
4. 125
first 2 players fold.
Hero-20k/button
Villian-50k/sb
hottie-8k/bb
I get AQ suited on the button. I raise to 10k. SB was chip leader and showed he was willing to get involved with marginal hands if someone made a small raise. Also i have been getting the bubble or 2 off a disgustingly rediculous amount of times lately (losing races/ getting sucked out etc).
The right play?
A poll is included so i will further explain my thinking later, just want to hear your input
Donkey
Thursday, May 4th, 2006, 2:12 PM
Ok well i guess i get no imput.
Maybe if i tell you my reasoning. At the tournament the next day all the armchair sklanskys had a field day with this, so here is my reasoning and why i think i make the right play. When i saw AQ on the button i thought that i did not want to make a small raise with the hand have him call, and enter no mans land on the flop. I wanted to isolate the bb who might call with her short stack or just give up those pretty chips. If i raised to 10k he would know i had a good hand since i was committing myself to the pot. The chance he would get a huge hand is so small that i thought it was worth the risk. As it happens he has only a 2% chance to have AA, KK, AK, or QQ. Thats what im worried about. If you include JJ and 10s thats 3%, and if you include the discounted chance he pushes with 77-99 thats maybe 4%. The 2% is also the only thing that concerns me.
If i go all in he may suspect a play as it is not done often with my chip stack at these tourneys, and he is just the type of player to suspect that sort of thing, and he would downgrade his playing requirements somewhat.
Well, he pushed making it 33000 in the pot and 10 for me to call. If i fold i probably could still make the money, but probably 4th and its still an if. Average equity about 170 if i fold.
If i call and win i have 45000, am the best player remaining and will probably get first or second, maybe lower.
Average equity 550 or so if i win.
If i lose i get 0 and the bubble AGAIN.
Pot odds are 3.3 to one and as i cannot do presise calculations and compare it to a gazillion other #'s and other considerations in the heat of battle my guess was i was about a 2.5 to 2.75 to 1 dog on average. I had to call. He had AK and won I got the bubble AGAIN, aaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhhhhh.
nomad_monad
Thursday, May 4th, 2006, 2:50 PM
My question to you is, what were you planning on doing if the SB just called your raise and the BB folded, and then the flop came down and you missed?
If you were planning on checking a missed flop, you're better of going all-in from the start. Your stack can only stand 4 more orbits around the table, so you are really in a fold-allin position preflop. The only rationale for raising without pushing now is to try a stop-and-go. If that was your intention, then maybe this is ok, but given the situation, i still don't really think so. I think the SB has to have a bigger stack than he does for him to call and then fold to a push on the flop. reason being, his hand range is much stronger to call a raise from you when it would cost him 1/5 of his stack then say, only 1/10th of his stack. plus, another condition for the stop-n-go is that an opponent will be more likely to call a push preflop than postflop. given that a preflop push will take a big bite out of SB's stack and simultaneously make you the chip leader if he loses, it's not very likely that the chances of him calling a preflop push are significantly higher than a postflop push.
Plus, a stop-n-go works much better when you act first on the flop. If not, your opponent could lead by pushing you in if the flop comes all low, and then you are forced to call off the rest of your stacks hoping to catch with only 2 cards to come (or you could basically throw away half your stack by folding).
The way you played it, by raising half your stack, you basically went allin preflop, except you committed yourself without putting the maximum pressure possible on the opponent. Once he re-raised, he could've flipped up his AK and you STILL would've had to call. If you had pushed, SB probably still would've called you with AK, but at least there's a chance that he might've folded it. He is certain to raise you back with it though if you raise without pushing.
Swift_Psycho
Thursday, May 4th, 2006, 4:56 PM
What were the other two stack sizes?
throwemaway
Thursday, May 4th, 2006, 8:35 PM
The other two chip stacks would help but Ill answer as best as I can w/ out that ifno...
You have an effective m of a little over 2...You have Ace Queen on the button w/ one short stack, who should be or is desperate...You need to move all in here..You gain the most fold equity by doing so
I don't know what your plan was if you just got called, but all the chips need to go in the pot here..
Also, what does making the money vs going for the win mean to you?
Tough luck you ran into AK here..I still think an all-in is your best play
cu in 4years Dan
Sunday, May 7th, 2006, 9:37 PM
all in is the supreme no brainer. ur leaving yourself 6.5 blinds if you just call.
never leave yourself with less than 5 BB
iggymcfly
Sunday, May 7th, 2006, 11:19 PM
The only reason I can think that you'd raise to 10K instead of all-in is to make it look suspicious to your opponents and make it look like you wanted a call. With AQ though, you shouldn't even be thinking that. You should be happy to push all your chips in and actually hoping for a call, since if you and the SB were both good players, you'd be pushing any two broadway cards, any pair, any ace, and any king, and the SB would be calling you with something like A9+, KQ, and 22+.
From the sounds of things though, the table's full of weak-tight donkeys, so you should actually be pushing even more hands trying to steal the blinds.
Actuary
Monday, May 8th, 2006, 12:05 PM
QUOTE (Donkey @ Thursday, May 4th, 2006, 2:12 PM)

Ok well i guess i get no imput.
.
you waited an hour?
damn.... be patient.
48 hours, bump....then if no response...come back an discuss...but don't give results...
1 hour??? geeze.
btw, PUSH AINEC.
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