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We can't answer yet without knowing what MP2 did first (even though I am positive it won't change my answer)...

Good problem.

What are our pot odds? There's 45k in the pot, and it's 34k more for us to call. That's about 1.32:1. Not very favorable, but not terrible.

What is the BB's range? We've shown considerable strength raising it up after an open limper. If we call and win, we'll nearly cripple the BB. Which hands is he willing to put essentially his tourney life on the line with? Without reads, I would guess his range is [AA-TT, AK-AQ], and I would weight AQ as the least likely holding. If we say AQ is half as likely as AK, that gives us 24 ways to make AK or AQ, 6 ways each to make AA-QQ, TT, and 1 way to make JJ. That's 49 hands. So 18/49 we're 20%, for 7% (18/49 * 20% = 7%). 1/49 we're 50% for 1%, 6/49 we're 80% for 10%, and 24/49 we're 54% for 26%. Summing these, we get 44% total equity against the range. So we're about a 1.27:1 dog. Not bad at all. The immediate pot odds of 1.32:1 make calling +EV in terms of tournament chips. With the top-heavy payout, prize EV is obviously greatly increased by calling.

But wait, what if our range is a bit generous and he's really only making this play with [AA-QQ, AK]? After all, he's chip leader, and we're his biggest threat. Against that range, we have about 36% equity, making us about a 1.78:1 dog and the immediate odds fall short for tchip EV. But what about in terms of prize equity? Let's simplify and use ICM to figure out the probability of finishing in the top 3 spots, where most of the money is. If we win this hand, we'll have roughly 100k in chips, or about 37% of the chips in play. This would give us a 37% probability of finishing first, 25% probability of finishing second, and 17% probability of finishing 3rd. That's a 79% probability of finishing in the top 3. What if we decide to fold? We'll be left with t34k, and that gives us a 12% probability of finishing 1st, 13% prob of finishing second, and 13% chance of finishing 3rd. That's a 38% probability of finishing in the top 3. So if we call, 36% of the time we'll have a 79% chance to finish top 3 (or about a 28% chance to finish top 3 because .36 * 79% = 28%) and if we fold, we'll have a 38% chance to finish top 3. That shows folding to give us a better shot at making the top 3. But...I haven't yet coded my own progrom to show the probabilities of finishing in each place down to 9 (instead of just top 3) and that would give us the ability to do a true prize EV calculation. I imagine it would show folding to be the better play against this range.

So essentially, if we limit his range to just [AA-QQ, AK], we should fold, but if we can include TT and a small chance of AQ, it becomes +EV to call.

What did MP2 do? If he called, I think there is a lot more money in the pot...

i'm assuming he folded. i think strat would've included it if he called.

p.s. rocket, if you read my initial post, i edited it because i left out a calculation at the bottom.

I'm gonna answer this on instinct - because I'm learning to trust it.

Instinct is my internal subconsciousness memorizing all the posts on these message boards, and advice in books, and observations of television, and memories of every hand I've ever played online and live, and then quickly calculated to a probably accurate answer.

My instinct says to fold.


My head says if I knew more about BB, and knew what kind of plays he'd been making recently, and what kind of hands he might play, if I could expand his range, I could perhaps justify a call here.

Without that, my gut says his range is too narrow.

I figured that this was a fold

In looking at MK's analysis, it's closer then I thought but still a fold as based on chip stacks and such, I would not include AQ and 1010 as part of villain's holdings.

MK, I almost thought Copernicus was answering the question by the way - nice explanation.

2nd in chips, going up against chip leader at final table...21 BBs, M of almost 11, Q of 1.4... I fold.

heh, where the hell has that crazy bastard been?

i put the villian on AK. The reason i say AK is because that is often how i play AK with a bigger stack so im assured of getting to see the turn and river. My gut here says he wants the pot to end right now and doesnt want to have to deal with a flop that misses his hand.

i close my eyes and call. You win that pot and youll be able to rob blinds and absorb getting a premium hand cracked by one of the short stacks which are going to be moving in soon. A lot of those M's are sliding under 10 and lots of chips will be flying all over soon.

Doyle did fold JJ though..and i can't really argue with the godfather of poker

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For the most part, I've also made it a general rule not to fold QQ pre-flop in low-stakes online tourneys.

But.

Are you folding QQ here?

can i get a result?

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