Sorry no hand history but here is what happened

Blinds 150-300

SB – 2800
BB - 7800
EP1 – 3200
Button (me) – 5400

I built my short stack from 1200 to 5400 over the last 8 hands with some solid play, taking advantage of an overall weak table.

EP1 limps for third straight time
ME – 6-6, I decide to limp as I have been bullying at EP1’s expense and he might be trying to trap.
SB – completes
BB- checks

Flop 3-4-7 rainbow.

Sb checks, BB moves all-in, EP1 folds. I ??
BB has been arrogant, making fun of the other players and a little aggressive but not overly aggressive.

What would be the best play in this situation & why?

First of all, you shouldnt limp pre-flop thats a major mistake. You dont have enough chips to warrent a call based on implied odds. so pump or dump preflop.

Second, call or fold? what kind of hand would he move in with at this flop? Its read dependent but in general its a fold and u are almost never a big favourite to win the hand.

If u do call you may look as silly as PH in this movie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqGT6gMvidg

i assume this is a STT, so your goal is to cash--place is not that important.

having said that, there is no need to call off all your chips with 2nd pair and a gs. even if you read the big stack for weakness, there's no need to try to make some heroic call.

Preflop is somewhat loose as like a previous poster said, you aren't getting the implied odds for drawing to a set.

I would fold to the BB's all-in. Only guy at the table who can bust you and he could easily have a 7 which would leave you with only a few outs.

this is an easy fold.

I assume 3 pay?

I'm sure you called and your read was dead on.


But:

How do we not have implied odds here?
300 for 750...we just need about 1700 more.
I don't mind the limp at all at a passive table.

Tell me why I'm wrong

At 150/300 I think the time for limping on the button has long been over. Take control of the hand. End the pot pre-flop.

If you think he's trying to trap - all the more reason to raise. Find out pre-flop if he's trapping and where you stand. He comes over the top, easy fold. He flat calls, then you have a little better idea.

Either way, I'm folding to the push on the flop. Especially if you limped. Don't even think about it, just get out of the hand immediately.

maybe I"m not seeing it.
maybe early SnG success is clouding my vision; but why committ 1200 chips (a standard raise after limper) or push with just 66.
I still see this as a chance to get a nice flop/stack.
We have 5100 left if we have to fold

If we were already in the $$$, I could see pushing.


let me see...

We push: Lets say all fold. We now have: 5400+ 300 + 300+150 = 7500.
That is appealing, but the risk of gonig broke on Bubble sways me here.

Maybe I hit sets too much

You dont have implied odds because, you are 8 to 1 to make a set. Since the SB and Ep1 dont have that many chips you cant get paid enough when u hit, u should get about 2400 when u hit to make the play break even. Plus they wont be trapped easily.

Your M is only 5400/450= 12 and according to my good friend Harrington small pairs aren't playable any more, except for an well timed all-in.

Plus what if you limp and either SB or BB raises? Than they would be commited and u would have to fold or go all the way with your 66 and double a small stack.

*Disclaimer: I admit that at Party I always hit my sixes when I have to

This was actually a MTT (I omitted the other players at the table as they were not involve and the money was still a little ways off - 296 players left, cash at 90).

Regardless of the outcome, this hand had me thinking.

The more I review it, the more I realize it is a "way behind/hoping it holds up" type of situation in which I'm taking a big risk at the wrong time.

Is my thinking off here?

with 750 already in the pot, getting 2400 for a 300 call seems pretty reasonable.

Now if SB/BB are aggressive players who will pounce on this weakness then I don't like the limp. But if we see the flop a lot for jsut 300, we do have implied odds.

Now... do we usually not get paid off when we hit?

I assume we make 1700 more lamost always, is that incorrect..because they will fold a lot?

I play with a lot of bad palyers in the 6 Man 20+2's who would let me see this flop for 300 and pay me off post flop on a set.

No you just cant play small pp with an M of 12. you are really looking for a perfect situation to let it work out.

1. you must not get raised pre flop (75% chance) AND
2. youd like a lot of limpers (extra pot odds) AND
3. you need to flop a set (12% chance) AND
4. you need to get action after you hit (66%)

lets list the probability of this to happen,

(3/4) * (1/8) * (2/3) = 0,06

In 6% of the cases you will have this perfect situation. So you will need to earn about 18 times the BB to make it break even, wich would be 5400 and that we cannot earn.

You see the point actuary?

Yep!

that was very good. and nice of you.
I implied in my post that maybe we get raised too much or don't get paid off, and thus should look to getting more than jsut a flat 8:1 payoff.
But I had not put any numbers to it
Your 75% and 66% are very reasonable, maybe even conservative, thus maknig the limp unattractive.

thanks again.

I should read that Harrington fella.
Hard to imagine the 6 Man SnG's being much easier... he might mess me up!

No problem

You can change the estimates of getting raised and the probability of getting action according to your reads of your opponents, thats what makes it interesting. I actually only play short handed limit cash games right now but after reading Harrington I really started crushing my home game SenG , onfurtunatly I lent the book to my friends so its not that fun anymore

But you should read it, fun to read and will improve your game

I think Paulie is sort of right, but a bit off. The principle is correct...that just because the table has enough money to pay you off, doesn't mean you get paid off, and the probability of getting raised PF is a factor. The math is much more complicated than what is presented though, and I wont try to work it out. The value in calling is the weighted average of all the possible outcomes. For example:

2/3 * 1/12 of the time you hit your set and get action.
what's missing is:
1/3 or 1/12 you hit your set, get no (or limited) action, but you still win the pot, and possibly a bit more. That mitigates the 18:1 somewhat.

I think a bigger problem is that you'r risking too much of your stack on too small an edge. Sort of an ad-hoc application of kelly betting principles. Your edge is too small to risk this much at this stage, even if the call were slightly +EV.

That is a non significant factor, we are loooking for an estimate for wat we should earn. I agree with you that The value in calling is the weighted average of all the possible outcomes, sometimes you hit your set and will be crushed by a bigger set, a flush or a straight. We cant do all the calculations possible, but we can make a reasonable estimate.

So if you play a pp in this situation its an All-in as sort of bluff but with a decent chance against overcards.