paulie72
Monday, May 1st, 2006, 3:28 AM
QUOTE (Actuary @ Monday, May 1st, 2006, 9:48 AM)

$20+2, 6 Man, Party STT.
1st: $72.
2nd: $48
5 handed
Stacks:
UTG: 4422
MP: 2905
Button: 1514
SB: 1135
BB (Me): 2024, JJ
Blinds 50/100
UTG raises to 300
folds to SB
SB pushes
I push.
I wanted to put maximum pressure on UTG,, is this correct thinking ?
I had moved in twice recntly, working up from 1000; but otherwise, had played quite tight (no cards)
UTG was playing very well, recently moving me off a 500 chip pot, and not making foolish plays, generally.
Lets take a look at the UTG raising hands in a 5 handed game, Id say it would look like: 88+,A8s+,KTs+,ATo+,KJo+
The only hands I see him actually call him your all-in with are AA, KK, QQ, AK
THis will happen in about 20% of the times and your equity will be 36%.
THe hands SB will move in with are quite libberaly because he has an M of about 7. Id say it will look like this: 55+,A6s+,KTs+,A9o+,KJo+
your equity will be 62%
now lets take a look at the two scenarios that can happen.
EV for both UTG and SB allin with u. The pot will be 5183 and u are expected to win 30% of it so u are expected to have 1554 in chips after this situation. (- 470)
EV for just u and the SB allin. The pot will be 2270 and u are expected to win 62% of it. wich will be 1407 + 889 = 2296 in chips after this situation. ( +272)
Since scenario 1 will happen 20% of the times and scenario 2 80% of the times, the EV of putting pressure on the UTG will be -(0,2 * 470) + (0,8 * 272) = -94 + 217= 123
So you can safely put pressure on UTG in my opinion