mmmikeySong
Monday, May 1st, 2006, 3:38 AM
very correct
you want that ******* to go OHNOOOOOO and fold. You are the boss of the table, no one else. Prima's blinds escalate too fast and too high to allow passive play to work - that's how it is with pretty much every sit n go I've played. Hands you're afraid of: QQ,KK,AA, AK - possibly. what's his chipstack? If you're pushing for 90% of his stack, I can't see him calling w/JJ,10,10, J10,QJ,KQ,AQ unless he's a pretty crazy player - and you still have edge over those hands. If he's dumb and calls w/88, oooh you're an 80% favorite - you also have folding equity here and table image improvement - i.e. he'll stop messing with you unless he has big hands.
BUT
as a rebuttle to the 99 play,
folding can be correct. Depends on your goal. Are you satisfied with 3rd? Think you can take him down heads up even if he outstacks you 3:1? If so, play tight and let him do the dirty work, after all blinds are 100/200 and even when you're up against AK, it's still a coinflip. You've got more than enough to wait for a better hand.
Personally, I like the 99 push. You've got edge over him as long as he does not have higher pocket pair, allowing you to get an even bigger stack, which then lets you push all the short stacks around, pretty much guaranteeing first place. Thinking long term is preferable - but tournament hold'em is more situational than longterm thinking imo. Why? Because while 99 push is more profitable - let's say you win the race, your chances of 1st place are probably like 90%. But what about folding and looking for a better spot? Let's say you fold and you don't pick up KK or AA against this guy, and eventually you're heads up with a 1:3 chip disadvantage - you've placed 2nd guaranteed and you have a chance to outperform and take 1st again.
Worst situation with the 99: you fold and bust out. It's reallllllllly unlikely when u have 8k vs 800 chips. So 2nd worst situation is you come in 3rd. If you don't mind this very unlikely situation, go for the folding.
It's all preference. Both are fine decisions because you cannot predict the outcome of the hand.
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the Shortstack question: Was it just 7 people left? You with 8k and the rest w/800? If that's the case, I would push, even with 2,7o, until you get hurt 3x (or once or twice if you're cautious - really depends on how much you wanna gamble). (as long as 8k guy isn't in the same hand)
I say 3 max - you lose all 3 times and don't pick up blinds, leaves you with 5600 chips.
If one person called all 3 times, he'd have 3200 chips w/the rest at 800. If 3 different people called, then you have 5400 vs 1600 vs 1600 vs 1600 vs 800 etc - still giving you an edge to steal blinds - course you'd do that w/hands better than 2,7o right?