Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $110
UTG+1: $90
MP1: $135.50
MP2: $90
MP3: $41
CO: $178
Button: $100
DMBroller: $31
BB: $72

Pre-flop: (9 players) DMBroller is SB with
7 folds, DMBroller calls, BB checks.

Flop: (2SB, 2 players)
DMBroller bets, BB raises, DMBroller 3-bets, BB caps, DMBroller....

Am I out of line thinking he wouldn't jam this w/ no pre-flop action on a flush draw? Getting sneaky w/ a pair maybe flopped a set....Guy has only been in a select number of pots and no hands to SD. What kind of hands do you give him here and should I continue?

I feel like I have plenty of outs here if I am in fact beat and good enough odds to go on. Pick it apart, PLEASE!!

Call down UI.

If you are going to 3-bet the flop it is a no-brainer that you call his 4th bet with your TP and OESD. If you say this guy has been pretty tight so far, I would say you are most likely beat right now...TP higher kicker, two pair, he could have even flopped the straight with 67 or J6. If you do not hit on the turn I would let it go, but personally I would have just check/called after getting raised on the flop.

People love jamming with draws here.


Lucky for you, they virtually never take free cards.
And if you bet, they probably wont raise a worse hand.

So just check/call the turn and check/call virtually any river.

Fold flop after you 3-bet. One player obviously has QJ

sw?

call, because at these limits i like to be loose and aggressive.
top pair and straightdraw im calling it down

Has he been aggressive at all? How loose/aggressive have you been thusfar? Is he even paying attention? How many times has someone tried to steal his blinds? The fact that he has no hands to SD is troubling but over how many hands is that and what type of player(s) was he up against?

When he caps I have to put him on something - if he's weak/tight, I think he's more likely to cap 2pr or TP rather than a draw. If he's shown prior aggression or your read is over a limited number of hands, then a draw is possible as well.

The typical/average player likely raises PF with high cards or mid-high pair in this spot so I'm not putting him on QJ. A made straight is the only hand I fold to at this point and since I'm not psychic......



What was your plan when you 3 bet? Did you intend to fold if he capped? Did you think his intial raise was a bluff/semi-bluff? If so, then so was the cap!

If I had wanted to fold this I would have done it PF or after the first raise. You'd have to have a strong read to fold this for one more SB I think.

I dont think this needs much discussion.

You have basically no reliable information about him.

Your draw is strong enough to justify calling the turn no matter what.
Your hand is strong enough to show down for one more bet when you make it to the river.


If you bet, you'll generally only get raised by better hands and called by worse hands/draws.
If you check, he'll bet with virtually anything because people are too stupid to take free cards even when there is absolutely no chance at getting the you to fold.


So it's a check/call unimproved.

check/call.

The three-bet is an iffy move. It's good if you pin your opponent on a draw, but once he capped, I'd have to say that you're beat.

It costs two bets at maximum to get to showdown to see if you improve your hand and maybe even beat villain if he isn't holding a straight or doesn't hit his flush draw. Worth the investment to me.

sw?


( I mean, you must be being sarcastic, to not know that Screech is being sarcastic... )






that's bad advice.


*******************

I'm not sure how many streets this hand would have to be played before I"d consider folding instead of showing down; but certainly not anywhere on the Turn or River.

also to Abba's idea that I"ve seen him say before (and others)
I tried to work out some math on the idea of "Call the Turn with Outs, and Call the River with SD value" It's actually rare (I was trying to convinve myself that it does exist because at some point I thought "Either you SD with a hand or you are drawing, none of this half-n-half to justify seeing SD when you only saw River for the chance to improve") but in fact sometimes mathematically, you have odds to see SD only because you also had odds to see river for the chance to improve; but otherwise should fold the flop. This was assuming a 10% chance we have best hand in my analysis.

but return to thread..just a rambling here.... I've misplaced the spreadsheet but it helped me.

Does anyone else hate the preflop limp? Steal this blind. Then unclick "autopost blinds" and find a new table within seven hands.

I think it's fine.
fold/limp/raise .....

you think there's a big diff?

Probably not, but a raise-steal sets hero up nicely if he hits the flop (given his mid-card range, villain might not believe that hero has hit a board that's good for T7) or leads to an easy play if he misses and a high card or two hit (bluff-fold on the flop). I like it better with T7s, and might just fold T7o.

I don't think I open-call very often in this spot. However, if BB has a favourable fold-to-steal stat, I'm raising. If not, I'm probably folding and moving on.

You make these things far more complicated than they need to be.

You have odds to improve, so you're definitely at least peeling.
By the time you make it to showdown, you have something far too strong to fold getting 7:1.


I personally think i'd show this down without the open ended straight draw. With second pair and an OESD, i probably only take it to the river because i have a draw - and once i get there, no way im folding for 1 bet. People are too erratic/maniacal in blind battles.

Here's the thing for me...I know what kind of value I have for the hand. The "maniacal blind battle" play on the flop confused the hell out of me. I really feel like this guy would have raised me pre flop with ALMOST ANY hand that could have me beat on the flop (except maybe bottom two).

All the action on the flop just made no sense to me. I never really could figure out what he had but knew i shouldn't fold. I even check raised the turn (3 ) just to make sure I was a donk that day. To my surprise he smooth called and i gave him one more bet on the river (blank). I was totally shocked when I saw his holdings and didn't play another pot with him that session. Probably a bad idea, but so be it.

Thanks for all the advice, it's really helping my marginal decision making which, especially in LHE, smells like throw up.

Results in white:
Villian had Jc2c

Jay

I dont HATE the limp, but I would almost never do it. If I have a read that the blind can be stolen, I raise. Most of the time I fold. I would only limp against extreme LPPs.

The J2 of clubs shouldnt be surprising at all.

Isnt that how you would play it? (and 3bet the turn instead of just calling, if anything)

Instead of just throwing that out there and moving on to a different comment, could you provide at least some justification as to why you say that? I don't consider myself an expert by any means so I would like to learn why you think this is such a bad idea.

If he says this guy has been tight so far, why is it so unreasonable to assume your TP crap kicker is beat when he fires on the turn?

What if the OP did not 3-bet the flop but just called instead? Would you consider folding the turn UI then?

Just trying to get some feedback.

Where to begin?

1. This is a blind battle. People act overly aggressive in blind battles. This is because it's heads up, and we are heads up vs a random hand. We don't expect him to have much of a hand, and he doesn't expect us to have much of a hand. Therefore, we are both attempting to gain value from marginal hands.

2. We have outs, to every hand we are behind except 1. We could do a pure combinations exercise, and discuss that there are 16 combos of QJ (I think I'm right, screech is better), and we could compare those to the combinations of Tx, Jx, hands, etc. I think that you'll see more hands we are ahead of, or have outs against.

3. His cap does not scream QJ. He could be trying to protect two pair, or a set on this draw heavy board. It could tell us that we are behind, are we most likely are, but we almost always have outs. IMO, this hand is almost worth of showdown. The thing is, if I'm calling the turn, I'm probably calling the river, even UI. That depends a lot on the player. Against an unknown, I'll probably call down in a blind battle. Sometimes they go nuts with T2 here.

4. Folding the turn when we are drawing live, mixed with the possibility that we are ahead is a terrible idea. We are almost always drawing profitably as well, since the pot is fairly big given the flop action.

5. Did I miss anything?

- Zach

read what Zach wrote.
good stuff.

It's ok to chase.
It's ok to call when you are probably beat.
Depends on the pot and your odds to catch (on turn) or still have best hand on river.

My apologies for being short.
In retrospect the advice was not horrible, and I'm not sure why I used that word.
"Too tight/weak in this situation" is more appropriate.

You're just a huge *******. Admit it.

As long as ive dragged him down to my level, im fine with that.

Yeah.

I kid because I love . . .

Great post Zach. Those points make a lot of sense, thanks for clarifying.



I don't put the villian on QJ here. You are right, we still have outs against almost any hand. And even though we are probably behind right now, we are getting decent odds to continue. After the advice you gave in your other points, I think you are correct in saying that we should c/c the turn and river.



Thanks for clearing that up, Actuary, helps out a lot.

I just want to add this:

A lot of people said some variation of "lucky fish" to me this weekend while I was chasing proper odds (or raising with proper odds). That made my heart warm a little. The number of people who don't understand probability seems to be growing on Party 2/4. Either that or I'm finding some good tables.

I think it's Caro who also has something to say along these lines. I really like this line of thought. Anyway, thanks a ton for all the input.

Jay