screech
Friday, April 14th, 2006, 2:44 PM
QUOTE (Abbaddabba @ Friday, April 14th, 2006, 12:33 PM)

Why has no one said check/raise?
We likely have 12 clean outs. Possibly 15. If UTG calls, it's for value. Even if it's heads up, we'll often be a slight favorite and only occasionally any worse than 40% to win the hand. We can almost always count on a bet from the button too.
We also potentially get a better hand (AQ or AK) to fold the turn unimproved. Especially if UTG gets involves, in which case button will have to recognize that we're not on a pure bluff and will likely back down without any piece.
I guess you never read my post.
We don't really have a huge equity edge 3-way (something like 39%). So why it seems we should raise, it has to be taken into account that button will have an overpair around 80% of the time. So he will 3-bet here around 80% of the time which will probably drive out UTG unless he actually has something (in which case our eqiuty drops slightly). If this causes button to drop out, we actually have an equity defecit, and lose money on our raise.
Also, raising does little for us in the way of winning when we don't improve. If we end up HU, it will be hard to get button to fold acehigh, so that shouldnt'r really be considered.
Another reason to just call is that if we hit our flulsh on the turn, we are in a great position to go for a check raise. So our implied odds actually are better if we decide just to call this flop.
So all things cnosidered, it is much better to pass up on our slight flop equity edge, and just call.
QUOTE (Scott3705 @ Friday, April 14th, 2006, 11:28 AM)

Nope. way off. No drama here. I was never actually worried about UTG. The actual action went check from me, bet, call, raise from me. Not trying to hit drama seeing if the only reason to play this hand is to make the flush or not. i've seen people suggest advocating betting with small pairs in these types of situations to run away AK in this spot. (Never understood that and I'm too lazy to go looking for posts. ) Would I have more FE on the flop or a better chance to take away the turn if I had C/red the flop?
Edit: I also thought this hand may give me some input as to what st and what situations are better than others to bluff.
Hey Scott,
I don't think you run out AK on this board very often at all, unless your opponennt is extremely weak.