A set is a strong hand. But it can be overplayed! I lose with enough of 'em.

Background: Button in this hand is a good SLAP, who I have about 500 hands on. 23/10/2.1. He does not overplay postflop...if he's betting he either has a strong draw or a strong hand. BB is unknown, but over the one rotation I've seen, I'd guess that he's a typical LP fish.

Party 2/4, 10-seated, CO posted

Hero is MP2 with 6 6

Preflop: UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO checks, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop (7 SB): J 8 6

SB bets, BB raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, 3 calls

Button will only 3-bet this with a flush draw, an OESD, a set, or two-pair. Two pair is pretty unlikely, as 8 6 is the only reasonable combo. He would've raised AJ preflop. He might 3-bet KJ, but I doubt it, from his history. His most likely hands based on combos are draws, followed by better sets. I have no idea what BB raised with, but I'm guessing he's got the Jx sewn up. Maybe J8.

Turn (11 BB): Q

BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls

The Q completes both the FD and the most likely OESD. I'm currently beating an overplayed Jx. Whee. My mantra is now 'pair the board, pair the board'.

River (14 BB): 4

BB checks, Hero ???

No boat. Sadness. If I bet-call, button will raise with a flush or a straight, BB will probably fold to two big bets, and I will probably lose two bets. While playing I considered bet-folding, so I wouldn't lose value if I completely misread the flop and am winning. Seeing the river check through would suck. I can't bring myself to bet-fold in a pot this large, even with a strong read, but I feel that's the best play. Check-calling (if button bets) seems like an option too, because I'm 75% sure BB will call one bet, so it's a win 2 - lose 1 proposition.

Three bet the flop. The board is draw heavy, with gutshots and OESD's everywhere and a flush draw. Even with a set, we want to punish the draws as much as possible because our hand is still somewhat vulnerable. We also learn a lot more by their responses to our three bet.

After being really aggressive on the flop, I probably will bet/call the turn. I'd much rather bet into a made hand here then allow a one card flush or straight draw to draw for free with infinite odds. Even if our opponent hit a straight or a flush, we still have a ton of outs to a house (or quads). We have 11 outs, but we can probably only count about, oh, let's say 8 of them as clean (just as an arbitrary guess). So we need about 6 to 1 to draw to a house on the river if we KNOW that we're already beat. The pot is about 12 BB by the turn, so even if we bet call we put 2 BB into an at least 14 BB pot, meaning we are getting more than 6 to 1 needing slightly less than 6 to 1 (and we also have massive implied odds that we have if we make a house and crack a flush or straight).

That being said, I really don't want to bet/fold this river. The pot is huge (something around 14 or 15 BB) and we don't want to fold a set on the river even if some draws hit on the turn. I'd much rather have the river check through when I'm ahead than be forced to fold by a plan of bet/folding.

I would check with the intention of calling 1 back to me. If it's two cold back to me with a BB check-raise, then I'd probably have to consider folding. But for only 1 with a set I'd have to call.

Mental note: I slowplay flopped sets way too often.

Flop 3 bet is a must here.

I c/c the river.

LongLiveYork,

while I agree with the Flop and I also like leading the turn depending on reads and action after our 3-bet... but flop action would be more revealing had we 3-bet...

I do not agree with you "bet call turn because we are putting 2 bets into a pot bigger than 12 BB so we are getting better than 6:1"
that's very flawed thinking.

We have to expect to win at showdwon > 1/n times to be a bet for value there, assuming all n-1 opponents call

I totally agree with you. You're for sure right. What I was trying to say was that in the event that we have the worse hand and are forced to catch up to win, we have good odds to do so. Obviously if we know that we're on the draw we would check call. I wanted us to bet because we have the best hand a good percentage of the time and we really don't want a club to see the river for free. When we're ahead we're afraid of a lot of draws and when we're behind we're able to catch up, so I think considering the full range of hands one could argue that betting out the turn is plus ev.

Thanks for the response, though, I can see how my comment could make me look like I don't know what I'm talking about.

it's clear you do know from all past posts
I probably should have approached my response from a less "accusatory" angle. I see now, and I agree. Bet and if we are raised, we're in fine shape even when drawing given the size of the pot.

Check-call the river.

Wow. That's a lot of players to the flop. In your situation, I'd actually raise preflop. General rule of thumb I've always used is that I have only limpers in front of me, I raise if I have a decent hand.

Since you didn't, then you'd have to 3 bet the flop. Remember, the more calls in front of a player, the better odds they have of chasing a draw. So with your hand and a strong drawing board, I'd 3 bet the flop.

Right now, check/call the river is the best move to me since the turn probably completed a couple of possible draws.

You raise 66 after 2 EP limpers from MP2 at a 2/4 ?

seems like you'll have to fold a lot of flops and lose an extra bet.

Do you take the pot down often enough with a bet on the flop iin your opinion?
Or do you give up if no set?

this seems tough to play 3-4 handed for a raise preflop.
I'm calling and hoping for more limpers behind me.

don't bet fold!!!!

Umm...66 is not a decent hand. It needs to catch a flop to win, moreso multiway than head's up. I'll limp with it always unless I have the equity to raise on set value alone (e.g., I'm on the button with 5+ limpers).

By that logic A-K suited isn't a decent hand.

I also like the limp pre-flop.

Big difference. Try playing postflop with 66 in a big multiway pot compared to playing AKs...

I was referring to his logic where he said 6-6 wasn't decent because it needed to catch a flop to win. Lots of hands need to hit a flop to win. A-Ks won't win in a multi way without improving, just like 6-6.

Ok, but how many ways can 66 hit the flop compared to AKs... still a big difference.

Im not trying to say 6-6 is better than A-K, just that 6-6 is a decent hand.