Bodog 2/4 NLHE (9-handed)

BB $394
MP3 $361
Cobalt $414

Cobalt is CO w/ A J . Opponents are relatively competent, but no strong reads. I do have a note on MP3 that I'd seen him slowplay bottom set before.

Pre-flop:
4 folds, MP3 calls, Cobalt calls, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop ($14): 4 4 Q (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Cobalt checks

Turn ($14): J (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Cobalt checks

River ($14): J (3 players)
BB bets $15, MP3 raises to $54, Cobalt calls ?


Arguments certainly to be made for raising pre-flop. I definitely would've if MP3 hadn't limped. As for the check on the turn, I probably have the best hand (though I could also be way behind), but my thinking was that the pot's small, so I'm not too worried about giving the free card if I can encourage an opponent to bluff on the river.

My initial reaction on the river was that I'd raise the BB. MP3's raise threw a wrench in that plan. Can an argument be made for folding? I've got the house...but it's the fourth nuts.

Why not bet the turn?

I tried to justify that in the original post, and while I think that it's a reasonable rationalization, the real reason was probably less complicated than that. I was likely multi-tabling and not paying attention.

Seriously though...the river?

Well, I don't really see myself folding. Not really worried about much other than QJ and 44--QQ, I guess.

I probably just push and hope someone calls with A4--of course, I'm just as likely to fold that, with no real read, so, I guess my answer is, I dunno.

Flip a coin.

I don't mind limping AJo preflop. Betting the turn lets us know a little better where we're at--that's where your problem stems from.

So, I guess, my diagnosis would be for the river action that; calling is okay. Pushing isn't horrible. Folding is worse than pushing.

But, yeah, bet the turn.

QQ, 44, and QJ beat you. I doubt either MP3 or BB lets it flop that cheap with QQ. 44 is a possibility for either of them. QJ is certainly possible for BB, but can we give MP3 credit for it? Q J maybe, but does a 'relatively competent' player limps with QJ off-suit? If not, we are worried about 44 plus three combinations of QJ from the BB for four hands total and 44 plus Q J from MP3 for two hands total.

You have so little in the pot you can certainly fold and not worry about it. However, I am inclined to call because the action makes no sense. I doubt either has a queen and let it go two streets for free. Same goes for the jack on the turn, although you let it go so maybe one of them did as well. I shrug and move on if one of them is slowplaying quads, unless a raise follows my call. What happens if you call and BB repops? Now you have $58 in a pot and have to figure out if he flopped quads or if he has a jack and wants to force out someone with whom he is chopping. Rather difficult laydown to make without a significant read.

I definitely call the river I would be a little leary about the pushing here. A call is fine a push can be justified but I would call and pay off 44, QQ, or QJ.

And yeah bet the turn.

Can someone explain to me the justification for pushing? What worse hand calls? BB could have any 4, MP3 could have A4 suited (maybe 45 suited?), but do these hands call a re-re-raise on the river? I cannot see BB calling with a naked 4 with MP3 still to act. The only way MP3 calls with a 4 is if MP3 figures you put BB on a steal, MP3 on a re-steal (or sensed weakness), and are on a re-re-steal, but he would have to think you are an extremely creative player to give you credit for this move. I just do not see anyone paying off the third raise with anything we beat, but perhaps I am giving them too much credit?

I feel like we have to raise on the end here. Maybe we do the dreaded min-raise, or possibly raise to $150 or so. I just feel like we're giving away too much value with our full house. There are too few hands that are beating us. I feel like worst case scenario we chop and just feed the rake a little. I think we're definitely ahead.

Yep, make the call, although I suspect you're ahead of at least MP3.

The reason I think you're ahead is because of the size of the raise that MP3 put in on the BB. The BB could have anything here...could've slowplayed a big hand, but really would've probably bet the turn with a set or better. I think the BB has a pocket pair and is putting out a feeler or maybe has a junk Q.

I think MP3 has a J or a strong queen; possibly a 4. If I'm used to playing you Cobalt, I think you're usually betting the turn J, so as MP3 I dont' give you credit for it. I'm raising a bit more if I put you on anything that calls his raise. A push on your part though sets yourself up for disaster in case someone has more nuts than you.

The interesting question is....what happens if you call and the BB reraises or pushes? Assuming whatever from the MP3...how big is the reraise before you lay this one down?

Did someone consider the probability of J4, Q4 from BB? I think I will just call.

AJo- Final Board- JJJ44
J4s/o - Final Board - JJJ44
Q4s/o - Final Board - 444QQ


I win!

This is embarrasing guys, I've been playing Omaha for so long I was thinking it in terms of omaha when I just saw this. Oops!

AceyDeucy's Second Law of Poker Message Board questions:

A hard decision on any given street could have been avoided by a smart bet on an earlier street.

That said, I don't see how you can lay down here. I can certainly understand not reraising here (almost no hand weaker than yours will call, no hand stronger than yours will fold), but I think laying down is just goofy-tight.

Just called. Like most of you said, I couldn't see any point to re-raising. If BB had come back over the top for a decent amount, I probably (hopefully) would've thrown it away.

BB called and flipped over J2o. MP3 showed 44 and took the pot. He asked if we would've called if he'd pushed all-in. BB noted that MP3'd bet about the maximum that he was willing to call...and I agreed with that.

why bet the turn?

You kidding?

Why NOT bet the turn?

Here's why we DO bet the turn..

1. To gain some information on the opponent's hand. If they smooth call we slow down, if they raise, we slow down. We gain information, neat, huh?

2. To push non-nut hands to the side. A good solid bet lays down most Qx's and pairs 55-TT.

3. Because the villain will not have quads or even, a better hand, 90% of the time--so we're extracting value? What? Valule? Gaining value? Awe-struck.

4. We can win the pot without showdowns a lot of times. This pot, was basically for sale--let's not kid ourselves. He's holding one of 3 hands we're crushed by--he won't always have the best hand, or any hand at all.

5. Because too many people wear pink panties in this game. It's got no betting restriction, and with a pot for sale, we're not going to bet? Pssscha.

You want me to keep going?

1. If my opponent calls a bet on the turn, I no longer feel good about my hand. I also open the betting in a small pot and allow myself a chance to get pushed off without showdown. What info do we need? We already have the info that we're probably ahead.

2. I doubt Qx lays down here. And why push out the two-outers that might call a value bet on the end?

3. How do we extract value here? There aren't a lot of worse hands that are going to be comfortable calling here and on the river.

4. If we didn't have a hand, I'd actually be more in favor of taking a stab at this pot.

5. Lots of money is to be made by picking up pots like this. I agree that betting isn't a bad option, but I don't think it's the only option in this particular case.

I think the best argument for betting the turn is that it looks like you are stealing a pot no one wants. Someone with a medium pair may look you up to keep you honest. Perhaps they would look you up on the river if you bet in position, but that depends on what card falls.

Also, there are not many river cards that help a hand of which you are ahead without making it a winner. The turn seems to be the only place where you might get value out of weaker hands if you think you are good. I think I am hoping to check through on the river if I check the turn, which may not be a bad option seeing as how the pot is so small.

I was drunk when I made this post.

Disregard it, and I'll try again later, when I get off of work. Heh.

An argument for Folding

No one has a queen or a singular 4, or they would have bet the turn with the flush draw out. They can't both have jacks, because we know where 3 of them are. If both the bettor and the raiser have legitimate hands, then one of them has a jack an the other has 44.


There, I made an argument. I don't entirely buy it, though. I'll probably call here and hope to split the third guy's money with the other jack.

Thanks, David. That was kind of my reasoning also. Basically, they couldn't both have a jack.

nah, I think there is more value in calling and hoping for an overcall from BB with a weaker hand. MP3 likely has at least a J, and you are at best chopping with him, no sense pushing and isolating against him, when there is a chance that the BB will be compelled to call the smallish raise when he is closing the action. (with a weaker hand hopefully)