Howdy,

Lately I've been focusing on patching some holes in my game, mainly transitioning between different amount of chips, style of players, number of players, position, etc. I think I'm a strong player at my home games, but I've noticed one flaw in my game that recently ended my night early...

It was three-handed in a single table tourney and I had 15-20 big blinds, so I wasn't really short-stacked, but I did need to get some action if I wanted to win the game.

I'm dealt AdQh, and make a standard raise pre-flop with one caller.
Flop comes Ah, Jd, 5d. I'm fairly certain that I have the best hand and I know that my opponent is loose and may be tilting a little, so I check to set a trap.
The caller pushes all-in (he's got me covered). I still think that I have the best hand and put him on a diamond flush draw. I've got the Ace, so I figure that he's got 8 outs, making me about 68% to win (Rule of 4 or whatever it's called).
I call. He flips over QdTd, better than I expected. He actually has the diamond flush draw and a gutshot straight draw, adding 3 kings to his outs. I'm still on top though, because while one diamond would give him a flush, two would give me a higher flush, and while a K would give him a straight, a K and a T would give me a straight as well to split the pot (CardPlayer says I'm still 58% to win).
The turn comes a diamond, and the river is a blank. I'm busted.

Anyway, the hole I'm trying to show here is that I'm relying too much on luck. How can I eliminate as much luck as possible from a hand like this? Even if I know I have the best hand, when is it not a good idea to risk all of my chips?

Thanks!

First, post the stack sizes. Second, you don't have to win the tournament on this hand. If you have 15 - 20 BB you can wait. Third, learn to fold. Don't fall in love with top pair. He could easily had two pair (aj, a5) or even trips (jj or 55).

Keep at it and good luck.

owise1

Not sure of the stack sizes exactly, but he probably had me almost 2:1 at this point. I assumed that he didn't have two pair or trips because he just called pre-flop, so I thought that he would have a marginal suited hand (this guy is loose).

I feel that if you had bet out, he would have pushed anyway and you would have been more committed to call and would have lost anyway. Tournaments involve a ton of luck, especially as the stacks get shorter. You should be happy to get all the money in as a 70% favorite. Your plan was to trap him and take a great shot at all of his chips on this flop and it worked out well.

You can't think based on results. If he had missed his draw, would you have posted this hand or would you have patted yourself on the back for doubling through him? I think your play was fine and you just have to accept the fact that poker has a lot of luck involved, and tournaments require a LOT of luck to win.

If you want to reduce the luck involved, play cash games. The blinds aren't pressing the action as much and you can often have more control over when your money gets in.

Payouts matter.

For the OP:

1. Don't post results here.

2. I don't screw around with the chip leader. Luck always plays a big role, but making intelligent decisions before allowing luck to become a factor is very important. You could be WB here to a set, or even two pair.

3. I'm not sure if it's better to lead with a pot sized bet or C/R. Personally, I don't "trap" without a stronger hand (two pair or better), especially since you can give him a free card that could really hurt you.

Otherwise, generally speaking, if I'm thinking that I'd be calling an all in, I'd prefer to be the one taking the lead with a pot bet. HOWEVER, Reads are super important to that decision.

This is terrible advice. If you have 15-20 BBs playing three-handed and the pot is raised PF, you should fall in love with TPGK, just about every time. If you're getting away from this, then you're playing way too tight.

Now, for the OP, this is a sentiment I see a lot from beginning players, that they want to "remove the luck" from poker. The fact is that you just can't do it. Poker is a game based greatly in luck, and all you can do is push when you have an edge. If you push a 57/43 edge all the time, you'll lose a lot of hands, but you'll win money in the long run. Really, the idea that you can get a "better spot" than this, especially in the late stages of a tournament, is a complete fallacy.

Now, from the play of the hand, there is one issue I'd like to address. If you have any tendency to make continuation bets, then I really don't like checking the flop after raising PF here. Checking the flop whenever you hit top pair is going to make people come over the top of your continuation bets, and is going to send out huge red flags to your opponents that you hit the flop. (If you play conservatively when you don't hit flops or your opponents are clueless LAGs on the other hand, then the play was probably fine.)

And position matters

In the end you appear to have gotten you money in as a fairly significant favorite. From what I gather, there are 3 players left and (I assume) 3 payouts. This isn't a bad spot for you to gamble IMO.


Regarding your question of how you can eliminate luck on hands like these....the answer is don't slowplay it. You checked the flop, trying to trap. If you are checking to set a trap, you NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED to call your opponent's bet. You were confident enough to check your made hand, and your opponent pushed; so he fell entirely into your trap. Now, you may have been wrong about having the best hand (you weren't), but if you are going to set traps then you need to dive in when your opponent takes the bait.

Easiest way to reduce the amount of luck you needed to win is to bet out. That reduces the chances that your opponent will see another card and improve his hand. As it played out, you were probably both getting your chips in either way.

First of all, your money went in as a big favorite. This is good.

That said you need to recognize you took the high-variance line here. Slowplaying is often a good way to win huge pots, but it is also a great way to lose huge pots (ergo: high-variance). It sounds like you want to reduce your variance. If that's the case, you get The Standard Advice:

Tighten up, play more aggressively, bet for value.