Hero: AKs on button. Has villian covered.
Villian: ultraLAA. Timebomb in poker tracker, playing 51% of pots, and very aggressively. He is the sb. Has $160

Blinds $1/$2, $200 NL on Party
Folds to Hero on button.
Hero raises to $8
Villian in sb calls.

Flop 999.
Villian checks
Hero bets $12
Villian calls.

Turn 8
Villian bets out $40

What do I do? I feel like there is no way I'm behind here, if I am I have outs, and if I just call this bet, I'm 95% sure I'll be facing an all in from the Villian on the river. Would anyone severely chastize me for pushing all in over the turn bet?

Mark

Absolutely. If you're gonna get em all in atleast give yourself a chance to win your stack. is he really going to call a push on the turn w/ k high? So really pushing just protects you against the 14% of the time that the villain sucks out against you on the river and ensures you get called when you're a little better than 14% to win. I prefer to call the all in on the river then push into this turn.

The bomb icon is semi-loose passive/aggressive (preflop/postflop). That fits with his play here.

He's taking an odd approach. I would guess he has a small pair. If on the other hand you're confident that you're ahead with just your AK kicker, then the thing to do is let him bluff it all off, imho.

Edit: What Scott said.

Just some bookkeeping: There is a more defined (in my opinion) set of pokertracker rules out there for NL and in that the timebomb is very LAA. That is the set of rules I use. Sorry, didn't mean to confuse everyone.

Just to play devils advocate: Lets say I just call, and call his all in on the river thinking I'm ahead, wouldn't everyone say I shouldn't call off all my chips with A high?

I'm just trying to reconcile: Not just calling someone blindly down, not wanting to fold because 85% of the time here I'm ahead, etc. For instance, if he has J4 here and hits a 4 on the river and I call him down, I feel like a complete donkey.

Mark

Do you think he's going to fold here if he has a pair? Can you really selll AA-JJ from the button against a guy who looks like he doesn't believe you already?

I don't think he holds a pair pf, or for sure I get check raised on the flop if he does. Only way I'm behind in my mind is if he hit the 8 on the turn. But no, I don't think there is any way he folds any pair here, even if he just has 22.

I'm just trying to think what is most +EV here? Fold now and give up a pot I'm ahead in most of the time? Call him down (for what I believe will be all his chips) regardless? Shove in now? I guess my thought of pushing on the turn isn't necessarily for any fold equity. You are right, he won't fold any pair. But more for 'keeping me from getting bluffed out of a big pot on the river' equity. Is that just backwards thinking or is that legit?

Mark

The only reason to bet all in here is to fold a better hand which you and I both think you can't. both lines;

Line 1:
You push the turn, Let's say you're behind maybe 15% of the time.
If we push 85% of the time we get a fold and will win $65.
If we push and get called 15% of the time we lose $148 85% of the time
we win $173 15% of the time
EV of pushing $40.27

Line 2;
If we call w/ intention to call a river push:
85% of the time we're ahead at the turn
85% of the time we hold up: we win $173
15% of the time we don't : we lost $148. (I wanted to discount a little bit here becuase I think you share an out here some times but doesn't really matter.)

15% of the time we're behind at the turn
85% of the time we lose $148
15% of the time we win $173.

EV of calling down: $90

So you recommend calling down here if he pushed on the river? I still feel like if I posted a hand where I did that, everyone here would tell me I'm a donkey for calling off all my money with A high...

(that would have been the right play based on the way it turned out btw. I called the turn, and folded to his all in on the river and he showed AQ. bleep! )

Mark

Given the villain, I'd advocate it if two factors are present: 1. you have a strong read that you're ahead 2. You have no fold equity against a better hand if you are behind. It seems like those two factors are present here. (Although it is hard to put yourself on the best hand with only A high. )

I'm suprise no one has jumped down my throat on this one.

You're reasoning is solid, but there's a few items I don't like personally. That's not to say they are bad ideas, I'd just do it different.

1. 85% of the time you have the best hand. But if you are going to jam on the river no matter what, 15% of the time you have 0% chance of winning. I hate ever putting money into a pot absolutely dead.

2. Pushing on the flop: His pre-flop play does not suggest QQ or higher. This means that pushing on the flop gives us the winning hand 76% plus 24% to draw to the winning hand if we are behind (16.5% of the time). The consensus here is that our opponent isn't holding the 9. Given that we did not push the flop, the turn brings an 8. With 6 outs to any random hand (non-paired), giving him a wopping 12% chance of making it on the turn, assuming we "know" he/she/it does not have a 9, we are ahead 88% of the time MINUS the percentage that the player already has a pocket pair. For simplicity's sake let's just say we are ahead on the turn 70% of the time. So 70% of the time we are pushing all in over an $80 pot ( $62 of which is the villains before our call) and hopefully winning. 30% of the time we are trying to catch up with 6 outs on the river for all of our chips (12%). It seems that the risk vs reward is pretty bad to push in any case.

3. Extraction: There are so many theories on this, but man... I just can't wrap my brain around with extracting with ace high. It doesn't seem right. The thing that hurts here

I think a point that is worth noting is that villains tend to do crazy things when the board is showing 3 of a kind. Not to mention that this guy is already leaning towards that edge. I think I'd err on the side of calling down here.

- Zach

NOTE - I'm not much of an NL cash player, I'm just following some deductive reasoning in this thread, as well as your reads on the player, so take my advice for what it's worth.

The great thing about 4 of a kind is that nobody ever believes that you have it, I think whoever gets their money in first tends to win, unless the other guy does have the 4th card

This hand makes my head hurt. I think I wait for a better spot.

Going all in has more than just fold ecquity. Against this moron, you will get called with almost any ace and even some kings. PUSH.

that's not the way the OP framed the situation. A push has no fold equity against a better hand and that Ace high that you speak of will push the river regardless. I think your assessment here is not thought out at all. You're betting for the sake of betting and you have no real reason behind it.

I don't think he would have called my turn push with just A high. My problem was just, I knew he would push the river, and I knew I generally won't call a push on the river like that with just A high.

Mark

Then it's right to just fold the turn.