This isn't actually one of my hands but one of my cousins from our trip this weekend that he can't stop thinking about. Its a 1 2 NL 10 handed table at the Borgata. He and villian are both at about 300 which is the max buy in as the table recently started. My cousin is a very tight aggressive player. Plays very high quality starting hands and isn't to big on small suited connectors. He does play small pairs often to try and hit sets, if he misses hes gone. So Hes pretty much a not to imaginative rock, but a solid good player who bets his hands well. Suits are not relavent in this hand and I wasn't at the table so I couldnt tell you. Villian is on the button.

Preflop:
Hero is dealt 10 10 in the small blind. He doesn't like to raise with 10s in early position, I probably would. 5 players limp in for 2 bucks, pot 10 dollars

Flop: 9 10 K

Hero bets 10, folded to vilian in cutoff who raises to 35, Hero reraises to 100, villian pushes for 300, Hero?


I already gave my cousin my advice on the hand and we have done some odds calculating on this hand and discussed it a lot. I'd like to hear what you guys have to say before I give my advice. I think its a no brainer buy my cousin is unsure. So please discuss, I will to after hopefully a few replys.

I'd make a crying call. You're getting 2:1, which is about the right price, as he's about a 2:1 dog to JQ. Even if he raised preflop, it's possible someone call in with JQ.

I agree totally with the above. Even in the worse case scenario, you are still get the right odds to call. The set of 10's may even be good. Villian could have pocket nines or 10 K, less likely a baby straight draw. The Villian might not have the nuts but if he's observed your cousin, he doesn't need it to get him to lay down his hand.
Your cousin obviously folded?

Nah he called. Just waiting for a couple more replys hopefully, then I'll fill you in.

umm... you're playing at the BORGOTA.... on the WEEKENED. This is a call 100% of the time given the previous sentence. This is k8 just as often as it's k5.

Maybe this hand will convince your buddy to not limp in EP.

I would hope so.

Raise to $15 pf. As played I called and fill up on turn

I told my cousin he has to call here. I don't mind the limp preflop either. He decided he wasn't going to try and win with a pair of 10s out of position and decided to play them for set value. Nothing wrong with that I don't think. The other guy did have Q J for the straight, my cousin looked at him right before he called and said Q J right? then called, bricked out on the turn and river and lost the $600 pot. I checked on cardplayers odds calculator and he was about 35% to win the hand when he made the call. He had 100 of his stack in and the other guys 300 plus a few other bucks from the other limpers. So basically a 400 dollar pot he had to put in 200 to play. 2 to 1 on his money he only needs to be 33% to win so while it was close as a pot odds problem he is still supposed to call even if the guy showed him the Q J. I also told him the guy could have easily turned over 99, K 10, or K9 and mabye a few other wacky hands, and he had already completely ruled out the guy limping on the button with KK. Anyway he did the right thing but was beating himself up about it so I thought I'd see what you guys thought.

AMEN!!

Getting right around 2:1 with a set, on this board, I don't care if I'm playing on the Moon with Neil Armstrong, Bellagio with Ivey or the Borgata with some drunk, I'm making that call.

The read is correct here and JQ seems like by far and away the most likely hand. However, given the play, 99 does seem like a second (although admittedly much less likely) possibility. Even if you're 95% sure of JQ, a 5% chance that your opponent is a 22:1 dog pushes an even money call substantially into the black.

The hand was sort of screwed from the start.

General rule of thumb for me is if I'm going to be first in the pot, I raise about 95% of the time at least 3x BB. In this case, I raise about 5x BB.

If I flop a set with a flop that loaded, then I make a crying call.

Actually I just realized that He's in the SB not UTG. I thinking limping from the SB and playing for set value in such large pot already is perfectly alright.