Writer says that he's been right over 75% of the time over the past six years (x indicates that you just shouldn't bet the same amount on each of the five bets)

White Sox(4x): Under 92 wins
Diamondbacks(x): Under 73 wins
Devilrays(4x): Over 68 wins
Brewers(2x): Over 81 wins
Twins(2x): Over 83 wins

I like the WSox, Rays and Brewer Bets myself - I'd pass on the snakes and twins.

If I were a bettin' man, I'd definitely put some money on the Brewers.

Devil Rays over 68 wins? in the same division as the yanks, red sox, Jays and Orioles? I'll take the under.

Well...they won 67 games last year. The Yanks aren't any better (only older), the BoSox aren't better (ton of question marks), the BlueJays MIGHT be be better...and the Orioles are probably worse. Also...the D-Rays are young and improving...............don't think ONE more win is out of the question. Look at the teams...not just the names of the teams.

I'll still take the under...their pitching is either young/bad...they have no 3B...i think they're gonna lose a lot of games 7-6

KC over/under 70 wins?

UNDER



me too. and i'll take the under on the Dbacks any day

FYP.

I agree...the Devil Rays should win 68 or more. Besides, it's not as if all their game are in the division.

LOL.....it appears that you don't really have a clue. Their entire team was very young last year...and they won 67....and this year their division is likely a little weaker....and all their young players just got one year better....and you don't think they will win ONE more game than last year...lol....whatever. Yeah..of course they have their problems...but they have a ton of promising talent...and some of that is going to pan out and they will be better. I'm not saying they are a contender...but I think 74-77 wins is realistic...I think the Orioles are the bottom-dweller in that division this year.

But they've lost Sidney Ponson and Raffy Palmeiro. That has to count for something. Lotsa cancer removed from that clubhouse.

KowboyKoop: Defender of the terrible baseball teams

I am not defending them..I don't think they will be a good team. I just think it's pretty crazy for someone to think that a 67 win team last year who is full of young talent that just got one year more experienced and better and is sporting a highly-regarded rookie in Delmon Young.....I think it is pretty hard to imagine that someone thinks they will win less games than last year with ALLLLL that improvement over last year.....I don't think 73 or so wins is unrealistic for the D-Rays....

KowboyKoop: Defender of keeping it real.

Good points made on the Devil Rays. I tend to agree that it's more likely the Rays finish with 70+ wins this season. Remember though, the Blue Jays had one heck of an offseason. They are the most improved team in that Division. Another thing to focus on is that the Rays I believe have had only 1 season with 70 wins or more. It seems that every season they are crapped on by the Yanks and Sox with the unbalanced schedules. Orioles finish at the bottom though....

What are your thoughts on the Angels? Alot of ESPN writers are picking the A's to win the AL West this year. And well, what ESPN says, goes. .. . . sw.. . . .

The White Sox have fewer question marks than any team in baseball. I would not be surprised if they win 100 games.

I believe their bullpen, particularly their closer, is a big question mark. Dustin Hermanson has had back problems and Bobby Jenks is a nutbar.

It's true that Jenks is a question mark, but Cotts and Politte are both studs who are capable of closing. And Brandon McCarthy coming out of the bullpen is ridiculous. Even though he's really young, he could be a #2 or #3 starter on most teams.

p.s. where ya been, digi? haven't seen you around much.

Changing diapers!

Where would you guy set the over under on Andruw Jones homers this year?

35

They have a solid team but they should have lost eight more games last year based upon the Pythagoerean theory. They played well but also got lucky last year.

Also, past world series champs lost about 8 games more the following year (not including the 97' Marlins due to their unique situation).

That would put the WSox at 92 or 93 games. This is similar to the Angels who won in 2003 had their win line set back 8 games and then failed to meet their win target.

On the other hand, they are 1-0

On pace to go 162-0. There is some discussion that good defense and a good bullpen can explain a portion of their good luck relative to their pythagorean record, but all things being equal you would expect them to come down a little. Thome could help offset that though.

Speaking of coming back to earth after outperforming a pythagorean record, what happens to the Diamondbacks? Not every year a team outperforms by 13 games.

Don't forget the coming out party Contreras had in the second half after changing his arm angle. He was sub-par in the first half and El Duque was sub-par in the second. Hopefully Vasquez will be an improvement over Duque, and Contreras will maintain his late season form. I expect Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland to be rock solid.

explain! now!

Basically, there's a correlation between the amount of runs a team scores and the runs they give up with their record at the end of a season.

If a team scores 750 and gives up 750, you can expect them to be a .500 ball club. Without getting too detailed, the more positive the run differential, the more they'll win. The more negative, the more they'll lose.

It isn't perfect of course, but it gives an indication of which teams benefitted most from luck and which teams got the shaft.

RS = Runs scored
RA = Runs allowed
G = Games played

RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2) x G = Expected wins.

Already has one three-run bomb under his belt.

On pace for 162 home runs...

Nah....324. Game's only half over.

Over/Under on Griffey going down for the year (MLB equivalent of the Grant Hill bet):

June 27

Over/Under on # of games JD Drew plays this year:

110

Over/Under on # of games until first Milton Bradley blow up?

45

Over
Over
Under

Under
Under
Over

JD Drew is going to miss more than 2 months this year. Mark it.

Don't mark it. I have no idea if this is true.