Going through my numerous 4th place finishes in this dastardly game, and found that 75% of them are hands similar to this one. Am I wrong to be pushing here? I can't stand getting blinded down...

We have been 4 handed for about ten minutes (went through one level already). Chip stacks have been fluctuating. Regardless of the results (I don't blame my opponent for calling here with his hand), I am 95% positive that this was a good push. Please comment.

Stage #358234632 Tourney ID 821453 Omaha Hi/Lo Single Tournament Pot Limit $200 - 2006-03-21 16:06:03 (ET)
Table: 479959 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 3 - KENEVLI ($5457.50 in chips) Tight, solid player
Seat 6 - WINGMAN19 ($3735 in chips) Loosey-goosey player
Seat 7 - IMWILD13 ($3070 in chips) Tight, weak player
Seat 9 - ROCKETWAD ($1237.50 in chips) God's gift to poker
ROCKETWAD - Posts small blind $200
KENEVLI - Posts big blind $400
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to ROCKETWAD [Ks 10d As Kd]
WINGMAN19 - Calls $400
IMWILD13 - Folds
ROCKETWAD - All-In(Raise) $1037.50 to $1237.50
KENEVLI - Folds
WINGMAN19 - Calls $837.50

*** FLOP *** [3d Jc 2h]
*** TURN *** [3d Jc 2h] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [3d Jc 2h 4s] [Kc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
WINGMAN19 - Shows [5d 3c Ah 6s] (Straight, two to six)
ROCKETWAD - Shows [Ks 10d As Kd] (Three of a kind, kings)
WINGMAN19 Collects $2875 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($2875)
Board [3d Jc 2h 4s Kc]
Seat 3: KENEVLI (big blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: WINGMAN19 won Total ($2875) HI:($1437.50) with Straight, two to six [5d 3c Ah 6s - P:6s,P:5d,B:4s,B:3d,B:2h] LO:($1437.50) [P:Ah,B:2h,B:3d,B:4s,P:5d]
Seat 7: IMWILD13 (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: ROCKETWAD (small blind) HI:lost with Three of a kind, kings [Ks 10d As Kd - P:Ks,P:Kd,B:Kc,B:Jc,B:4s]

Plo8 tournament late stages become low-oriented (AwXX) preflop pushing crap shoots. I won't be pushing with the high-oriented hands, in fact I will just fold, you've already created the odds for others to call and the blinds were big.

From my plo8 tournament experience, keeping the pot low in the early/middle stages preflop and stealing on the turns or rivers is very profitable when you are in position and everyone else shows no strength. But I am playing higher buyins though so basically most players know what to play and what not to play.

Really? I was under the impression that the latter stages you should play your great one-way hands (meaning high or low), not just the low ones. Could be one reason I have so many 4ths lately. I definately agree with the "crap shoots" comment, as I use that analogy all the time.

Time to start following some sage advice-

Look at decisions, not results.

cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Ks Kd Td 173541 328771 171229 0 0 0 0 0.502
5s 2c 9d 7h 171229 171229 328771 0 269933 0 0 0.498

Always low-oriented in plo8 tournaments.

I hate the twodimes output in general, and have never seen it for PL08 but these numbers look suspect to me. The bottom hand here has exactly the same chances of winning Hi but the top hand has 2x the chances of losing as winning?

Also straight EV isnt the determining factor, its prize equity.

Logically (and I admit to not being a PLO8 expert), when you are a decidedly small stack scooping is the priority even more than in regular play. Second priority is not going bust. Those two in combination would say to me that playing solid Hi hands is the best strategy because there is always a hi winner.

Just the raw % of there being no low hand offset by the times that low hand scoops would make it seem like a low without an A would be a very risky push.

Another factor is the remaining live players. It would seem there is a greater risk of being quartered on the low side, which would be a disaster to a short stack all in.

Excellent points as always copernicus. That is my thinking as well, in that you are not guaranteed to hit a low hand, but there will always be a high hand. I have a monster high hand in the example I provided, which according to JK-off is the favorite to win the pot (only a slight favorite though).

I am curious what others think.

This is absolutely a no brainer. Your M is less than 2, and you have an excellent high hand giving you a great chance to scoop. Those 2 dimes numbers look wrong because they aren't lined up properly.

From an EV standpoint, the pot is laying you almost 2:1 to push. You're perfectly happy to take a coinflip getting 2:1.

Against villain's actual hand, you were in slightly better shape:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Ks Kd Td 187513 342033 157967 0 0 0 0 0.530
6s 3c 5d Ah 157967 157967 342033 0 292033 0 0 0.470

I understand the thinkings from copernius and mk. But here's my points.

ATKKds is a post flop hand to either flop well or to steal in position when everyone else misses and shows no real strength, it requires a cheap preflop limp in and more players in the pot to make it a worthy investment, but it's not a preflop pushing hand when your stack is light and the blinds are deep.

Sure you are getting 2:1, but you are more likely fighting for half of it.

There are 32 low cards and 20 high cards. From low you can build high but from high you can't go low.

On the high side, ATKKds is just about 2:1 favorite against any rondom low hands, but it has 0 chance of winning the low.

What's your real expected value on this hand?

1/2x2/3 + 1/2x0 = 1/3.


If your stack is deep then you can push around with this hand, but not when your stack is small.

What's one of the most important principles in the split games? Play hands that can scoop, that can win both high and low. That includes tournament plays.

Ahhh...it wasnt the alignment that messed me up it was that the first column is "scoop".

Since he is so shortstacked lets assume this is a push or fold hand, as it would be in holdem. If he folds the certain result is -400

If he pushes he profits 1837.50 37.5% of the time, profits 300 30.9% of the time and loses 1237.50 31.6% of the time. That nets out to +391. The swing for pushing is +tc791 for an additional 837.50 investment.

That makes it a lot clearer that this is a push than a raw .53/.47 edge would indicate.

What are the low hands numbers? If he folds he loses nothing, if he calls it all-in he profits 311 on average. However if he were in the blind (ie Rocket had the lo hand) it would be 711 overall with the blinds difference. So he prefers to be the hi hand here by $80, which is the narrow .53/.47 edge.

No brainer push from either side.

Only thing I am unsure of copernicus is teh -400. Wouldnt it be -200, as I was the SB?

If I am correct in that change being required, what does that do to our figures?

Interesting Post - including hero's own hand, there are 31 low cards and 17 high cards left in the deck.

What are the odds that the board will result in a playable low which would result in hero playing for 1/2 the pot at most?

Instinctly, I would have pushed there just like Rocket did

Jack King Offsuit,

My question would be is it really worthwhile to wait for a better hand to push with? It's really hard to believe that four-handed and being extremely short stacked that we'll find a better situation in the next few hands.

I understand the importance of "scooping hands" in O8 but aren't we so low that we have no choice here?

Here's an article from Michael Cappelletti, http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/a...d=12818&m_id=42


Read specially those:

Also, in shorthanded Omaha high-low play, such as the final stages of a tournament, most high-only hands are not favorites to win a showdown.
...

Do you know that K-K-Q-J unsuited is a slight underdog to a random hand in heads-up Omaha high-low? If one of the kings is the same suit as the queen or the jack, the hand is about a 51 percent winner vs. a random hand. But note that against three doggy-looking low cards such as 8-6-4 unsuited, the pocket kings high hand is more than a 5 percent underdog! Such is the nature of Omaha high-low.



So, before you play a high-only hand, look around and judge whether or not you will have enough company to keep the percentages on your side (I prefer four-way action or more). And remember, thou shalt fold (usually) if there are two low cards on the flop. Amen.

I didn't notice Rocket was in the SB. I would have completed then check-folded the flop.

Hero will scoop 37.5% of the time (187,500/500,000) which by itself (not including chops) means hero only needs to be getting 1.6:1 from the pot to make moving in correct.

i don't play omaha8 much at all, but this thread is very interesting

Is it me, or does Cappelletti seem like a weak-tighty, kinda like Ciaffone?

I find this is quite a dilemma, according to the pot odds moving in is probably correct, but according to the theories it's not correct to move in because you want to see the flop cheap with more players in. I don't know, I am debating myself now.

All I can say is:

Rocketwad has done it again!!!

Didn't expect this topic to be such a mind-bender...

The problem is simply that his stack is so low. If the stacks were deeper, a call would be correct, and he would welcome multi-way action. The pot is just too big relative to his stack to fold this hand, and the fewer low draws involved in the pot the better.

Wouldn't the possible fold equity I have pre-flop when I pushed change this to be an easy push (despite what Capelletti says). The hands he is using as examples seem to be him calling for the chips, rather than pushing. In my hand, there is 0 chance of him folding with his actual hand, however, I could see many hands that would limp there, but fold to a push by me (I think I still have enough chips to make it at least a decision and not an automatic call on their part).

Since the push profit is $391, and your fold profit is 600, yes, FE does increase the value of a push.

And yes, I was remembering BB, but SB its -200. I think the other numbers are ok because they all involved your total stack.

Sorry to dig up this thread, but I want to compliment copernicus and mk's comments. I only played plo8 cash games and I played very little short-handed at that time. As I've played more sh and the plo8 SnGs, from my experiences the made high hands win a significant amount of times short-handed, it's simply because a made hand is a made hand, the lows need improvement so typically they will need two pairs or better to win, and high hands can improve as well. There will be always a high hand and there won't be necessarily a low hand, plus the strong fold equity by the preflop raise.

There you go again, being a flippity-floppity...

I've been away for months, and the best you guys can do is dig up one of MY old threads???

LOL

hi Rocket!

how's it going with the new wife?

You've got a new wife, rocket?

How about your kids, do they like their new mom?

She's new to me, but has been their mom since the git-go!