FCP .50/1 NLHE (10-handed)

UTG+1 $85
Cobalt $350

Cobalt is SB w/ K K . Around 5 hands before this, I'd been in EP with KK. UTG had raised, I'd re-raised, and a medium stack went all-in. After deliberating, I called. He had QQ and spiked a queen. That's prologue. Oh, and I've been playing two tables with UTG+1 for two hours. He hasn't raised pre-flop yet.

Pre-flop:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 6 folds, Button calls, Cobalt re-raised to $20, 1 fold, UTG+1 goes all-in, 1 fold, For the Love of All That Is Holy Let Cobalt Fold ?

(It's $65 to me.)

why are you thinking, 65 to you when you have 350, and you have the second best starting hand you can have, if he has aces, rough, if not, he needs to hit, and he has to have basically 2 hands that could possibly beat you, AA or AK and it is more likely hes pushing with QQ or lower, and this includes 22, 33, 44, 55...because i have seen it so many times i wish to forget.

I digress, if you folded i think you need to quit poker.

never raised pre-flop for 2 hours and now he is pushing? I really cant see this being AK. It has to be a pair IMO. It's just a matter of whether its QQ or AA - I wouldnt have a problem if you folded this, but I am way too stubborn to lay down KK preflop.

Call. Automatic. He can't break you and you can't be sure that he has AA. Even Dan Harrington's not good enough to fold cowboys preflop.

I've never folded KK preflop in a cash game. This in my opinion as others have stated is an insta call. If he has AA so be it.

The fact that he hasnt raised at all in 2 hours does not mean he has AA. You need more information about the guy before you can fold KK to him heads up for $65.

The only time you should fold KK preflop is if you are 95% sure the guy has the nuts and you have no evidence supporting this.

I assume you call and lose to AA, however i stand by my post.

I had a similar hand today. I raise to 8xbb with KK, and got mini raised. The stacks were roughly even. I raised the size of the pot and he insta moved in. It appeared that AA was the only hand he could have, I called because you don't fold KK preflop and he showed JJ.

Its quite possible that your opponent is card dead and is pushing with his first reasonable hand in a while. Call here 100% of the time, and if you lose then it wasn't meant to be.

What do you suppose the $350 has to do with the problem at this point?

If he has aces about twice as often as any other holding, then a call is break even.

EV = [P(AA) * P(win vs. AA) + P(AK) * P(win vs. AK) + P(QQ) * P(win vs. QQ)] * (pot) - (bet to call)

---P(x) P(win) Product
AA 0.65 0.18 0.12
AK 0.17 0.69 0.12
QQ 0.18 0.82 0.15

Sum of products = fraction of pot we can expect to win = 0.38
Pot Size = 85x2 = 170
EV= 64.92- 65


[Removed errant 0.]

It's not really about the money. As you noted, I was sitting on plenty, and the night was going really well. (At this point, .50/1 is essentially slumming.) It's about being able read an opponent's hand and make the correct decision.

In the other hand that I mentioned, I considered folding KK, but I decided that my opponent was stupid enough to push AK or QQ in that situation, and made the call. I was happy about it.

In this particular situation, there really isn't a hand other than AA that he can have. Frustratingly, I said, "Frig," and made the call...with the justification that you never lay down KK in this situation (low limit NLHE cash games w/ relatively "medium" stacks). Surprise, surprise...AA. In the past six months, I'd say this was my best opportunity to finally lay down the kings pre-flop, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.


I appreciate this post, David. Makes me think this laydown is possible at some point. I'd actually put the percentages at something more like 80% AA, 10% KK, 5% AK, and 5% QQ.

.162 + .002 + .035 + .041 = .24
.24 * 170 = 40.8
EV = 40.8 - 65 = -24.2

I think calling in this spot is clearly -EV if I can trust my reads.

Easy call. I'm pretty disciplined, but pocket kings isn't a hand that comes around everyday.

Actually, I'd say you probably would have been right to fold here. Someone that's tight-passive enough not to raise for two hours playing two tables isn't going to jam the third raise all-in with QQ, JJ, or AK. Even if you give him a 20% chance of having something below KK, (which is about as high as you can go), then a fold is still the right move.

Still though, it's definitely a tough play to make. Just thinking intuitively, it's hard enough to make a play like this, and when you have 15 people's advice to NEVER FOLD KK PREFLOP ringing in your head, it makes it that much harder.