This hand was an actual hand from an upcoming SS III episode with two players heads up. You are the button, and limp in for 60,000 with 10 4 and the big blind checks.

The flop comes 10 2 3 and the big blind bets out 60,000 which is half of the pot. You decide to raise it to 150,000 and your opponent studies for a few seconds, and then finally calls.

The turn card is the 7 and the big blind checks to you. A little worried about your kicker, you decide to check also and opt for the free card.

The river comes the A and your opponent bets out 250,000. You have him covered, he has an additional 450,000 while you have 950,000 in total.

Now, in this situation, would you go all in with your 10 high flush or would you just call.

I'd just call. The reason being ur opponent probably will not call u w/ a weaker hand if u reraise him allin and if he has u beat w/ a higher flush he definitely will call. By checking the turn, and now re-raising on the river w/ a T high flush, ur opponent will likely put u on the medium strength flush. The opponent's 250K bet on the river after u both had checked the turn looks like a defensive bet or a bet as a lure for u to re-raise allin. I would just call here.

You're pretty much assuming that your opponent can see through your cards. Your raise has value to it as you can not assume that your opponent will not call the river raise unless he beats you, your opponent may have 2 pair, had a set and slowplayed, made a smaller flush. HU, those hands are betting for value and I think we have a hand too good to not put all our chips in with here.

this question/quiz is identical to quiz 12 but it's totally the opposite.

they key in this hand is the turn play for obvious reasons. I really find this situation to be almost a coinflip if he has the flush or not, because i'm sure the unknown player will play it the same exact way with any other hand (bluff)

he could have 45o, but then again, why would he risk calling 90k on the flop with a open-ended when theres a flus draw out there.

calling here is the safest play. like the poster above stated, you only get called by a better hand if you go all in.


edit: jayboogie...no way does your opponent play it this way with a set, or a strong 2 pair that will call your all in. if so, he is a very weak player.

easy quiz. next?

I think this is a call.

The A helps make a lot of non-flush hands, Top pair, Aces up, wheel all of which are unlikely to call a raise. Also it is a good scare card to bluff at, however no bluff is calling a raise either.

Based on his thinking at the flop raise, he may have been working out the value of a call. To call with a flush draw OOP alone would have been thin based on odds, so if he has called with that then he is likley to have had some extra outs to back him up, like over cards implying any flush he's made is higher than yours (only exception is 56)

Finally from his point of view, you have raised the flop and checked the turn. You've played exactly like a flush draw would.

Obviously you have to call, but it would be a poor opponent that calls any raise with a lesser hand than yours so a raise would only risk your chips, not return value.

You guys are missing a key point of this hand and that is the blinds, they're already high, if you're not willing to put in all your chips with the 4th nuts, what are you going to put them in with? If I make a hand this good HU, I'm trying to extract as much chips as possible and close the match if possible, if I'm beat, well there's not much I can do.

You're missing value by not raising here because hands you beat are still going to possibly call. If he made Aces up, it's going to be very hard for him to get away from this hand with the blinds at what they are and with how much he has put into the pot already.

I really don't see how you guys can pinpoint an opponents hand to have a flush here just because he raised the flop and checked the turn, it's HU, any hand is possible.

We're not saying he has a flush.

We are saying that it's transparent if we raise that we have a flush.

Do you see why?

If we raise, of course it'll cross his mind that we might have the flush, all the hands we might have that beat him, he'll think about before calling, that doesn't make it not right to raise just because our opponent thinks theres a good chance we have a flush.

Is it not possible that our opponent thinks we may be trying to represent the flush by going all-in?

jayboogie, your initial statement said that the other player could've slowplayed a set, or hit two pair.

no way does a good player slow play a set on the flop and turn. 2 pair is more likely, but again, what could he be calling you down here on the flop/turn?..if he had two pair on the flop, we would've most likely seen another reraise. the only two pair i see him hitting is A10, but why would he wait until the turn to bet?




calling is the best option since there's a great chance that he is holding a greater hand.

Put yourself in the villains seat.

Are you calling an all-in with 2-pair or a set based on the way the hand played?

I'm throwing those out as possibilities, it's HU, why can't those hands be slowplayed? They're strong enough to be played this way if the player so chooses to. He didn't do anything on the turn, he just checked and got a free card. He just bet the flop and called a raise, I don't see how anybody can get a read on an opponents hands just from those actions. He bets the river, it could be a bluff, it could be a legitimate value betting hand, we don't know that, but we lose value for our own hand by not raising since we will get called from weaker hands given the blinds at what they are and in a HU situation.

You can make a better case for just calling this bet in a Tournament with more players in it and deeper stacks at a crucial point in the tournament against an opponent who has you covered.



I would say given the chipstack situation, you're only left with 450k behind you and the blinds are already high that the chips are probably going in the middle with a good 2 pair or set, of course nothing is definite and maybe a strong read against an opponent will allow you to get away from it, but against a professional, that's just not happening here. A good player may see that flush card as an opportunity to push a player off a hand, which at these blinds is not inconceivable.

Also putting yourself in the villain's seat to decide whether to raise based on whether you would make the call is irrelevant, you have no idea whether your opponent would call with 2 pair, heck he may even call with just a pair here. Play is aggressive when HU and it doesn't take much more than a pair to get all the chips in there very often. As I said before, this is too good of an opportunity to close the match out to not take it.

Unless your opponent bets with nothing but the nuts, it's still a raise here.

So as a good player, how did you manage to pot commit yourself with a flush draw on the board?

I really don't get what your arguing about? How is he committing himself if he feels he has the best hand here a fair amount of the time. What do you expect a player to do here with Aces Up? Check the river? Of course he's going to bet what he thinks is the best hand and then go over whether his opponent is capable of making the raise without the flush afterwards.

Have you not seen the blind structures in the PS Invitationals? It doesn't exactly allow for a lot of play, you're not exactly able to play a ton of streets when you have only about 10 big blinds in your stack.

OK. I'm being too subtle here. Let me spell it out for you.

Lets look at all the information we have again.

Firstly we are assuming the villain is a good player.

Now how has he played the hand? There are 2 paths. 1 he has something. 2 he is bluffing. lets go down the first one.

he likes the flop as he bet into us. He then calls after thinking. At this point with a flush draw on the board he is either going to reraise here with 2-pair or a set or bet again on a safe turn. He didn't. (this is the point I was trying to make above)

So this means he likely has either a weak pair or a draw. As I said before, if he is drawing to a flush, he might like overcards as well to justify the call being OOP. Whilst he might also push with a flush draw on the flop, we know he doesn't have the A so he might be less likely to do so, although I'll concede it's less of a consideration HU

With a weak pair he may have an Ace kicker to justify his river bet, but would he not be tempted to raise our limp preflop with an Ace?

If he is on a draw he either has a flush or wheel draw. His wheel draw is less likely as he only has 6 clean outs and therefore the odds on the flop call are not there (remember he is OOP)

Now you can see there are reasons to doubt most of his holdings beyond a flush draw with overs. Or a weak pair hoping we are on the draw and will check behind on the turn (as we did)

So that brings it back to the river bet. It is likely to be with either a stronger flush or a weak hand trying to get us off. How much did he bet? $250,000 into a $420,000 pot. Does he want us to call? Looks like it to me



Now look at what he knows about our hand. (We are assuming we raise the river here) Again we either liked the flop or are bluffing. If we are bluffing is another $450,000 into a $670,000 pot on the river likely when the villain has represented the flush and is all but pot committed with weaker holdings? No. That means if we raise the river we are not bluffing, so lets replay the hand from the start and see what we have.

We raise the flop, so we have a piece of it, meaning either a draw or a good pair or better (This is why he has to raise the flop or bet at a safe turn card - a very important point you are not grasping). Then we check the turn, knowing that villain may have a flush draw. Is DN ever going to give an opponent a freecard to a flush/straight with top pair? Rarely. So the villain is probably going to assume that DN is likely on a draw.

Now the Ace, flush and straight all arrive, villain bets and we raise. WTF does he think we have?


Now we know all this, and he knows all this, and he knows that we know....

So as explained it is very unlikely he is at the river with 2-pair or set. He is more likely there with a good flush, a bluff, or on a long shot, the wheel.

Soooo.... with the exception of the wheel he's not calling unless he has us beat.



Now whilst all the evidence is wrapped up in likelys and such they are all good indicators and the point is, if we are beat we are still left with enough to carry on and if we aren't we are very unlikely to get value out of the raise

sure seems like a situation where knowledge of the opponent is key.

without that I'll go with the call, I can't see them calling a raise without a higher flush. the turn check smells like a trap or drawing to a higher flush rather than just top pair or two pair.

interesting indeed.

Call.

Why risk everything here?

This is very well thought out...wonder if u have this much time for decisions during the heat of a hand LOL. As I originally replied in my first post, this is definitely a call IMO. I very highly doubt the opponent will even call an all-in reraise here w/ a wheel.

i can never think things out at a table

That's just crazy how you feel you can gather that much information just from your opponent betting and calling a flop raise. With the way these blinds were, I'm sure a flush draw plays this flop much more aggressively, particularly if he had an overcard or 2 to the board as well. More than likely, the chips would have been in the middle if it were a flush draw, because the player with the flush draw has lots of fold equity on that flop and probably folds a hand that would raise the flop such as middle pair.

If he is a good player like you are assuming, he should be able to think that it's possible that you are representing the Ace or the flush and he'd consider calling you even with a much weaker hand. I don't know how often you have been HU, but you can't exactly wait for a premium hand to stick your chips in there. A pair is usually good enough to jam with.

The blinds at what they are encourage gambling and the players know that and play more accordingly and more aggressive, obviously everyone disagrees with me here, but we'll see what Daniel reveals as his answer, should be interesting.

All in.

Let's see what the BB could have that wins:

K, Q or J high flush = 18 hands

What can he have that you beat that he could call all in:

Any two diamonds 5-9 = 10 hands

AT = 6 hands
A3 = 9 hands
A2 = 9 hands
TT = 1 hand (may or may not raise pf with this)
22 = 6 hands
33 = 6 hands
4x5x = 12 hands

Even if you give BB credit to be able to fold his two pair hands, there are too many hands here that he could have that he will call your bet with. Even if you eliminate all sets as not likely because he'd bet the turn with a set.

It would be very difficult for him to lay down any lower flush.

Based simply on the flush possibilities, if BB has a flush, you've got a decent chance you beat it AND that he'll call with it. Plus I contend he would be hardpressed to fold aces up or a set, and that they can't easily be discounted as possible holdings. I also think he can't fold the wheel.

Besides, if you think he'll fold a 9 or 8 high flush, you also have to consider that he may fold a J or even Q high flush too.

So, with an allin bet here you have SOME (though very little) fold equity, because you could, conceivably, get a better hand to fold.

So In wonder if DN was the BB or SB in this hand?

and I would call, although I doubt I am beat, any ace would have raised preflop, and TPTK would reraise after flop to drive out flush draw. he made a flush or straight here, and calling with 10 high flush isn't what I want to tell everyone about at the bad beat lounge.

I think this is an easy all-in. Remember, this is Poker Superstars and we are HEADS UP. The blinds aren't too high, but cmon, he has to have a higher flush to beat you. Could he have the J high flush? Very possibly, as the way he played the hand would suggest a possible flush. However, there are many other possibilities of hands that he would call an all-in with. The most common hand he could have and call would be aces up. I don't see ANYONE folding Aces up to an all-in raise here considering the pot odds and that this is heads up. The villian could put you on a lower two pair, just an ace, or a pure bluff. If you go all-in and lose you still have some chips left I believe. If you just call, and he flips over two-pair or a set, you'll be banging your head that you didn't take him out when you could have. Maybe some people would just call, but if it's me, against a pro heads up with large blinds, I'm ALL IN every time. Booya. But that's just my style of play. I'll make a wager Daniel says just call. He'll say the way the villian played it there's a pretty good chance he has the flush and likely wouldn't have played the hand in this fashion with a pair and ace kicker on the flop and turn.

You gotta evaluate the chance that he'll call you're all-in bet, vs the chance that he has the higher flush. Then relate this to the size of the pot, bet, and chance that you can recover from a loss, vs the chance he can recover if you just call. I came up with the perfect formula, and then my bird ate it. Damn bird

nh

It's headsup and we are the small blind, as in headsup play the button is always the small blind.

wait, why did we check the turn?????

I think the way the hand playd out moving in can't be such a bad play. Villain might have 45, aces up, unlikely lower flush, or maybe even be half defense/half value betting an ace(although he would had to have A5 or A4 imo to call the flop out of position). The only problem with moving in is since this is poker superstars and not 1$/2$ NL, is that villain may fold aces up or maybe even 45 if villain feels strongly enough that you can't raise without a flush here. To add to this, villain has left themself enough behind to play a few more pots and if it's a bluff they're throwing it away. Villain could have possibly put you on a scared 10 or a pair 44,55,66,88, or 99 that they believe is too hard to call with this river, if villain is tricky enough they may try this with a bare 3 or 2. He may put you on a bluff yourself and try to take it away with what he believes is less, but why would he call the flop with absolutly nothing correlating to that board, as anything he did call with excluding 46 and 56 have gotten there.

Now, after being given all the possibilities, I would put villain on aces up here and move in. Although losing this pot essentially gives the match away due to the high blind structure, if this is an early round match getting heads up is ideal(due to the point system) and I think playing for it all in this spot isn't a bad idea at all.

I hope this wasn't TOO convoluted and some can see where im trying to go with this.

-Andrew

What he said.

(Didn't want to quote the whole thing, was too long.)

With what hand is he only limping pre-flop AND calling a 90K raise on the flop (giving him 3-1)? I say that he has K 6, 8, or 9 . If he figured his call would allow the turn would check through, he'd be getting odds to see the river for his flush draw. Any other likely hand given the call on the flop (A2/3, 22 or 33) would probably be good for a raise pre-flop (or at least I might, to try to end a hand in which I am in bad position). So I call, because the only plausible hand that calls my all-in beats me.

Maybe? I dunno. I'm still new to this.

let's look at DN's table image and playing style...

Q1) would he be willing to push all in on a stone cold bluff or semi-bluff representing the flush if he thought you had a marginal hand?

A) yes, we've all seen him do it with a hands like that.

Q2) if you are the villian can you call an all in after the way the hand played out. keep in mind DN checked the turn a classic, i'm drawing to the flush hand.

A) that takes some serious mochizmo to do unless you have a read of DN (in this case in incorrect read) or you have him beat.

Q3) in HU what are the odds of the villan having the K Q J of diamonds AND anouther diamond. that is 7 diamonds out in a HU match.

a) i'm WAY to hung over after St. Guinness day to work it out BUT it's not real likely

Q4) anyone willing to help me get sainted for driving the dingos (and dingo fossils) out of Minnesota?

I may be way offbase here, but here's why I think we check the turn:

We may have top pair, but our opponent may too. Our kicker sucks. Our flush draw is nice, but when our opponent has us outkicked we're almost a 3-1 underdog and pretty much need the flush to hit to win.

I would probably go all-in, because it sounds like the opponent caught 2-pair on the river. Just a hunch

I think your opponent is going to read you for that flush if you raise and you are only going to get called on an all in if you are beat. A lower flush might even be layed down because after all what else would you be raising with (Its controversial whether or not to raise with a 10 high flush, so I dont think anyone is going to be raising with 2 pair or a set and hoping to get called). Your opponent still has plenty of chips left to fold the hand and play on if they read that they are beat. Calling is by far the best option.

i push him all in thats just me, i dotn make it a habit of flding flushes when heads up when there are only three cards to the flush on board. I would have to have a read on him here not to commit all teh chips

Well there are a few other things to consider here. Are the blinds going up soon? How many players are left? And since we're on the button this hand, we'll be able to see a couple of free hands (Depending how many people are still in). The way the Poker Superstars tournament is setup (or so it seems on TV), when it gets late, it just seems like an all-in fest so if you move all in there and he calls with a better flush, you'll really be hurting in chips and will basically have to move in shortly after. But if you just call and lose, you'd be at about $700k in chips and with the blinds at $30/60k, you still have an "M" of about 7. (which is pretty good considering the way that tournament is setup in the late stages) But if you move all in and he calls and shows like KQ diamonds (2 overs and flush draw on the flop), you'll be down to 200k and basically all in the next even close to legitimate hand. One way of looking at it is since you played it so aggressivley, it will be hard to put you on a flush. I agree though, I can't see him betting into the river unless he has a flush as well or if hes just trying to represent a bigger flush, maybe putting you on like 2 pair or a set and hoping you'll pay him off with that value bet on the river. I would elect to just call here. If you win, you're sitting at around $1.6 million or so (I could see my math being wrong there, lol) and you are in great chip posistion and your opponent is down to $450,000 and now you have him where you want him.

But I'd now like to analyze the hand itself to maybe get a better idea of what our opponent has. We limped in on the button with 10 4 suited on the button. Im surprised the usual Daniel Negreanu didn't raise here (im sure he had a good reason, ie: bullying people around before and a short stack in the blind then taking a stand against his button raise and moving all in, etc....ok, rambling now) But anyways, since we just limped in, we really cant see where our opponent is at cause hes going to check any hand there. He could check garbage to see a flop or he could just check a monster hand and try and trap us if we do get a piece of the flop, thinking we're good. So since we didn't raise, we have not really defined our opponents hand. But then the flop comes 10c 2d 3d. This was about as good of a flop as we could get with our 10 4 diamonds. Our opponent now bets $60k, about half the pot into us. At this point, I read this as being weak. He only needs to bet half the pot cause he needs to only win this every 1 and 3 times for it to be a profittable play. But you could look at it is as, hes going to bet his powerful hand to confuse us. Let's say he had K Q diamonds and decides to fire at it, seeing where we are at. This is a very reasonable play because hes actually the favorite in the hand with the 2 suited overcards. (well since we're on a flush draw, hes actually a small dog but he can't know that as of right now) He may also think put this small bet out here making it look like a steal and wanting a raise with his big hand. Then the turn comes the 7h which does nothing and now he checks. At this point, if he had a set or 2 pair, I can't see him checking here allowing us to catch our flush and win the pot. But let's look back at the flop. He just called our $90k raise. Now what types of hands is he going to flat call us with out of posistion with 2 cards to come? At this point, I have our opponent on Kx suited. I believe if he had KQ. KJ of diamonds, hed elect to raise preflop and get the hand over with since we have posistion on him. Then again, I'm not a top professional so...heh. So at this point, I have our opponent on Kx suited (I'll venture a guess and say K6 diamonds, random 2nd card guess) Then the river falls the diamond that we needed. So at this point we're just thinking "How much can we get out of this guy?" But then he bets...$250k, which is a pretty weak bet. I cannot see this being a bluff, because he knows if he had 2 pair, we'd call for only $250k. Also, I dont think he has a set or 2 pair for the reasons above. That's what I think about this hand, criticizim is appreciated, trying to improve my game everyday, thanks for reading this ridiculous response.

EASY ALL IN

I believe this is an easy decision. for starters you have the 4th nuts playing heads up. The blinds are so high in this structure that any all in isnt very large compared to the blinds or pot so you will get called with any modest hand including a pair of aces. It is very unlikely he has you beat at this point and raising gives you more +pv than just calling.

After reviewing the information I guess the anwser is not that easy. The blinds are still not "everyone pot commited pre flop" like I usually think On SuperStars. The way the hand was played I would fold or call to someone like Slansky, Chan or Hellmuth who might not give me action on a reraise all in. I would likely go All in to someone like Williams, Matisow, or Hanson who are more known for making looser calls. The key here was both of you checked the turn and his/her bet on the river is representing the flush. I guess a call here would be a better anwser than I would have first guess.

My first thought was that he was playing like a flush draw, semi-bluffing on the flop then trying to get free cards. But then I thought, he could also have 4-5 and hit his hand with the ace. But even if he did have a flush, it could be a junk flush, he could have any two diamonds on the big blind. Im not sure what the format is for SSIII but if it is like the others where blinds go stupidly big, I'd go all in to try and accumulate chips. Its not a situation where ''you'll only get called if your beaten'', here you can beat 4-5, a lower flush, 1 pair (where s/he feels that you raised on the flop because you sensed weakness, but have now jsut abandoned your bluff), A-x (or even two pair), a bluff and any other garbage your opponent may have. And again, if it is a similar structure, your opponent will call to accumulate chips too

Opponent does not have AA, KK, QQ, JJ. Why?

Because he played too weak preflop, flop, and turn.

Opponent does not have 10,10.

Played too weak preflop.

Opponet does not have 22,33.

He would have played it stronger on turn.

Opponent does not have 44,55,66,88,99.

The river bet is too big seeing how many draws hit.

Opponent does not have 77.

He would have bet preflop.

-------------------------------------


Does oponent have a strong ace?

Unlikely because he would have raised it preflop and would maybe give it up to raise on flop.

Does opponent have a weak ace?

Possibly. He could have been hiding the ace preflop with the check hoping for an ace to come on board.

Does opponent have broadway cards?

Unlikely because he would not let us get in for free preflop.

Does oponent have one broadway card and one low card offsuit or non-diamond suited?

Nope, because then the river bet into a river card that makes big hands is suicide.

Does oponent have one broadway card and one low card diamond suit?

Well, maybe, how likely would he be to be aggressive and reraise flop? I don't know.

Would he have two low cards suited diamond?

This seems possible. Trying to get to a flush on the turn and getting a free card on the river and then betting. The good news is opponent's hand is a loser.

Would he have two low cards unsuited or suited non-diamond?

Preflop fits, get something on the flop to call our raise. Then Maybe hit the seven for the second card? ie 3 7. Try to slow play it, get unlucky on the river. Or be going with draw on 45o

Could he have 4d5d? No we have 4d.

[font=Courier New]

category | likelyhood| how many ways to have it
pockets | No |
Big Ace | No |
Low Ace | Possibly | 18 (A2o or A3o)
Broadway | No |
Big&Low | No |
BigFlush | Maybe | 15
LowFlush | Maybe |10
3 & 7 | Maybe | 9
T & 7 | Maybe | 6
4d5d | No |
45o | Possibly | 12

[font=Arial]
Let's consider a possibly worth 1 and a maybe worth 2.

We win:
LowAce+LowFlush+3&7+7&T+45o
18+20+18+12+12=80

We lose:
BigFlush
30

I think we are an 8:3 favorite. we will get called by all those hands.... so.... All-In.

If my math is correct, his bet of 250K into a pot of 420K on the river tells me that he paired his A, rag or possibly A with 2 pair.

Only 3 hands I can lose against.

Again, I want to end it now and even if I raise all in and lose I still have chips to play with.

I say all in and win it on this hand.

All in. Definitely.

Villain betting half the pot gives reasonable odds to chase with a flush draw (I'm not great with odds, but those are reasonable). By raising it with your flush draw/top pair, you gave the impression that you currently have a great hand and don't need odds to justify a call and thus that you don't have a flush draw. The reason there was no bet on the turn was because your raise may have scared the opponent a bit (or at least surprised him). You then improved by nailing the flush on the river and then he bets big when the ace came down.

I'm thinking ace-rag. Finish him.

I say you just call His bet at the end signified some strength (could be defensive) with a possible two pair. You used the free card play to perfection. When he bet 1/2 the pot, it could have been a semi-bluff with the flush draw. He checked to you on 4th street which probably means that he wanted the free card aswell. When the ace came on the river, he showed no fear and bet again. I think he may have hit a higher flush, but we can't be sure, so I just call here.

In addition, many players would raise with any ace, especially A 10 in the BB with one limper.

Edit: When we used the free card play, an observant opponent could easily find out what you're up to. So basically, we're only getting called by the better hand. Since this is pokersuperstars, not the $1-$2 online tables, the free card play is more likely to have given away your hand.

I'm definitely going all-in here. Even if he has the flush, we're less than a 2/1 underdog, and there are lots of hands he has other than the flush that could justify bet/calling. A rivered two pair and a wheel for instance are losing their chips to us all day here.

He certainly played it like he had a flush draw, so Im probably calling. But moving all in isnt a bad play here either because you might push him off a bigger flush, or get payed off with a hand weaker than a flush.

I have not read the responses yet, here is my thoughts.

The bet could be a value bet, but looks more defensive. Here are the possiblities of his hand I see.

1. Better Flush- Possible the way played, reraise puts you on a short stack this is truly a slim possiblitity I think
2. Straight- His turn check makes it unlikely, most good players would bet again on theturn to price out a flush draw.
3. A set- again, no bet on the turn is incorrect.
4. Aces up- Very likely, bet on the end is protecting against a flush, he hopes a flush just calls, and a weaker 10 calls.
5. Weaker flush, Also very likely- he makes the bet on the end hoping to get paid off

I really think the bet is more defensive, which means you have him beat. He could have screwed up a straight or a set, but most likely he has aces up or a worse flush. given the stack sizes- I say you push him in. He has to call you with almost an of the above holdings. Even if you are wrong, you have enough left to fight with.

I vote for call. The 60k bet on flop could have been designed to create the proper odds for a flush draw.

I think Ace/2 or Ace/3 for the Villain.

Betting 2nd or 3rd pair on the flop.

Thinking awhile and calling the raise on the flop.

Checking the turn (possibly caus'e he's beat)

Hitting the ace and betting out fairly strong on the river and possibly controlling the betting somewhat.

He could very well think you're on pair of tens with decent kicker...but possibly one of those 10/something hands...

He hits 2 pair on the river and feels like he's got the best hand, but isn't completely sure because of your turn check (indicating possibly flush).

Bets decent size bet...possible payoff, but safe enough if you have the flush.



Call or All-in...

I'd probably call but..

Who is the villain, who's the hero?
How strong pros are they? Can they really change gears? What's their image. How tight are they? Has the hero been pushing around or the villain. How's their relationship. What was that hesitation on the flop (in hero's opinion)...acting, draw...

What is the hero's take of each of their images and what does the hero think the villain thinks the hero has. I think that's the big question...


I just like flopping the nuts and having them hold up....That's way easier than really trying to play the PROS post-flop who can change gears based on what they think you have.

Sure love reading everyone's posts....Nice to hear tons of opinions..

Mine don't mean squat...I just got pillaged at the 10/20 cent table at (other site) the last two nights. Just kept calling on the river, assuming everbody wouldn't call 3-bets with 3/7 every time to make those weird straights and 2 pairs and boats..

Can't wait to hear answer.


And realize why I am a professional musician and NOT NOT NOT a professional poker player.

Though I did stay in a Holiday Inn last night.

E

I don't see the point of re-raising the flop and coming this far in the hand to not to milk your opponent of more chips when your card finally hits.

In this case, I think the fear of your opponent holding a higher flush should've been evaluated and considered in the face of the $60k raise, before the turn card even hit... what's the point of sticking out the hand and putting money in the pot looking to hit your card when you are going to play timid when it does? I would've folded to the $60k raise if I didn't think my flush would hold up in the long run, regardless of what kind of price I was getting.

Anywho, on the contrary, I live by the line "Never bet the river unless the second best hand will call or the best hand will fold". In this case, the ace makes pushing all-in an even easier decision for you because it makes a number of hands you can beat- wheel and 2 pair (A 10, unlikely but possible).

I wouldn't put my opponent on anything other then a draw just because the bet on the flop was to weak for a made hand (with flush and straight draw possibilities). Knowing this, I probably would've bet on the turn, and gave him a really awful price.

I agree. The only hand that will call a re-raise on the river is the one that beats you, especially from the quality of opponents that DN is facing here for SS III. If someone had a smaller flush than DN, and DN re-raised the river, even for a min bet, they would probably assume they were beaten and lay it down.

I put the villian on 45, btw, because of his hesitiation to call the re-raise on the flop (sometimes indicating a drawing hand) and then checking for a free card on the turn. I also think villina has a 45 because if he had an A-x (especially in the high rising Superstars III blind format), they would have raised preflop* from out of position to gain control of the betting and to also try to steal the blinds and antes.

*Did anyone see Greenstein last night? He was playing like a maniac...just moving in on people left and right. But that;s how you got to play SS III I guess.

FWIW - Daniel never said that he was in the hand, just that it occured in SS III. Also, some people have also indicated that we have to look at the skill of our opponents. For this particular hand, clearly the skill of our opponent should be a moot issue, as it is SS III. Move the hand to a heads-up situation in a $50 SNG and then the "correct" play MAY change.

I think its a clear all-in. We are not out if we do lose to a better hand, but I think that the number of hands that we beat that WILL call our re-raise in that format (blinds are fairly large, but not obscene yet) are much greater than the small number of hands that we are behind to. Tis a value raise, which will get paid off by many hands IMO.

Look at decisions, not results.

I don't see how calling is the best option here at all...It seems as most of the posters here are trying to impress DN by saying that they would simply call with a 2 carded flush (2-carded=you use both of you whole cards).

Also...to the posters who said go all in, I agree, but...

a lot of people said that A 10 is a possible hand, as well as pocket pairs. With these blind strucutres, I'd be fairly confident he's move in for the rest of his chips preflop with any pocket pair, and A 10. I put him on a wheel, but I also give him credit for two pair, just not Aces and Tens...

And yes he would call with soooo many hands that you have beat simply based on the odds that he's getting and the gigantic blinds...Some ppl even said that he'd fold a wheel...no he wouldn't, are you on crack?

I'm sure DN will agree with going all in here.