Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Ts], [Td].
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) [4d], [Js], [7h] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, hero?

villain (MP2) is 32/.36/1.5 over 40ish hands.

Mp1 unknown.

what's the plan?

We are way behind more than we are way ahead here. What does he cap that we are beating? AKs?

Maybe raise/fold the flop?

- Zach

His PFR is .36?

not a lot of hands, but generally with those stats he's not capping AK nearly 100%. But small sample

fold now
or
raise/fold turn UI. (somewhat read based, but never a bad idea to pull this play. gives you a crazy guy image



I think our fold equity on the flop is zilch against his capping range

I'd probably fold right here, but doing a raise/fold turn will charge AK
and a 3-bet will be more accurate info

If his PFR is seriously .46, what is he raising preflop that doesn't have you beat?

I'm not saying fold, I'm just saying to keep this in mind. Someone with a .46 PFR (if that is actually true) is only raising AA KK QQ pre-flop.

We have about 9.25:2.5, or 3.7:1 in effective odds to call down. Assuming his capping range is AA-QQ, AKs, we are only good against the AKs. AKs has 4 combos and the others have a total of 18 combos.

Therefore, we are only good here against 18% of his range, and need to be good against ~21% of his range to call down. We also have about 7 outs against us (backdoor flush draws + two overs) when we are ahead.

Given this, I think we should just fold to the lead.

slow down folks.

its 45 hands.

we have indication not rock solid proof

Also, I don't think stats are very worthy over 40 hands. More likely than not, the guys pretty passive pre-flop, but someone could certainly get cold-decked over 40 hands. Therefore, I think it's necessary to assign a more generic capping range, though it may very well be AA-QQ (which would only strengthen the argument to fold the flop).

I wanted to call down, but i can't shut out the other player.

Unless it's AK he has me.

I like folding better than r/f as of now

Doesn't add up.
Even after 40 hands his VPIP is 30+.

Judging from his VPIP and his PFR, I would be willing to be the line wouldn't change much more after 500 hands.

I remember having some villians that had lines like 35/2/1 over thousands of hands.

40 hands.
He could have easily been dealt the non-raisng range of his 30+% playable, it can happen.

Anyway, folding now is best.
I threw out Raise/Fold turn as alternative to consider, but he needs to be a "decent player" able to fold. And I kinda forgot we aren't closing action on the flop

Yeh I'm not too keen on any stats under 70 or so, but i think if they are over 25 it's worth mentioning.

Unless you get a better indication, I think you should fold on the flop.

The best you can hope for is to be up against AK.

So, if he would cap, AA, KK, QQ, AKs, and AKo, there are 34 possible hand combinations. 18 hands have you drawing to 2 outs (9:1 dog). And 16 hands that you are a pretty big favorite against. Against AKs a 2.3:1 favorite, against AKo a 3:1 favorite. So, if we take a weighted average of these hands, it leaves you leaves you at a in pretty good shape. Better than a 2:1 dog.

Now, there are 12 small bets in the pot pre-flop, and naturally he bets out on the flop, making it 13 small bets. If you call him down, you will have to invest 5 small bets to win 18 small bets. That gives you pot odds of 1:3.6. So, calling down in this situation will give you a positive expectation.

However, if your opponent probably wouldn't cap with AKo then you are more like a 4:1 dog resulting in a slight negative expectation.

So you better be pretty sure that he would cap with AKo.

Now from here it is really going to depend on the player. Oviously we can see that difference between playing AKs and AKo makes a huge difference. On top of that, will he three bet a big pocket pair on the flop. Would he only call your raise to slow play.

We could try to raise and see what he does to see where we stand. But I suspect that most players, even novice players would only call your raise with AA, and maybe even KK, to slowplay and trap you with such an unintimidating board. So in reality, we wouldn't really have gained much information he could be slow playing AA or KK, or drawing to AK.

What if he re-raises? Well, if he has AK he is a 3:1 dog. But if is deciding on re-raiseing you and having you just call him down, or just call call you down to the river, the pot is so big that he has positive expectation to draw to the A or K with either play. So, his play should really depend on how easily he thinks you would fold.

So, trying to define your hand in this situation does nothing for you.

So, I think this falls into the WA/WB situation. And your desicion to dump or call down should depend on what your read of the player and what he would cap with, with a strong predisposition towards folding.

Granted, if you are ahead, calling down this hand gives your opponent the opporunity to draw out. But I think that we should trade this risk since we could be way behind and want to try to show down cheaply.

That's my 2 cents.... for what it's worth.


PS Sorry if my math is off... it's late and I just wanted to finish this post up. Please correct me as you see fit....

We're NOT folding this preflop.

If that was meant towards me, I'm not talking about pre-flop.

I woud definitely see the flop. I'm talking about on the flop play.


Edit: Comment corrected. Sorry Zach

FWIW, there has to be an error in his PFR stat...

Over 40 hands, if his PFR% is .36... he is raising:

x/40 = .0036
x=0.144 hands.

Since he cannot raise portions of hands, there is clearly an error.

- Zach



Proofread then.

Just making sure...

You seemed to know what you were talking about...

don't jump to conclusions too soon....

my true intelligence will be revealed before long... ;)