UTG+1: 10/6/2 328 hands
Mp3: 35/0/1.08 50 hands


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Actuary is BB with K:club:, K:diamond:.
1 fold, MP3 calls, Actuary calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q:heart:, 6:spade:, 4:spade: (3 players)
Actuary checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Actuary calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 5:club: (3 players)
Actuary checks, UTG+1 bets, Actuary folds


Based on UTG+1 stats, should I lead flop to try to get it HU, assuming he'll raise
this flop really sucked for me because with his stats AKs (maybe) JJ? was all I was beating. I was going to c/c down..but the turn fold seemed clear to me.

Rarely do I fold KK before sd, but normally, I'm cappnig a non Ace flop too.

Before seeing sd, I felt good about this.

Yeah, seems ok.

You're probably getting 3-bet on the turn by UTG, so you would be paying a lot to show down here.

With MP waking up, you are RARELY good here.

But seriously... why the crap did you c/c the flop? I just noticed this after focusing on the turn action. Seriously?

Bet/Raise/Cap - AINEC.

If you manage to get to the turn, and the flop was capped by UTG, I'm probably going into c/c mode. I think you missed value on the flop, significantly.

I wouldn't really let his stats get in the way here. Just because he is tight, he still raises 6% of his hands, and that gives NO indication of his capping range. He could be capable of capping 60% of the hands he plays. I'm tired, so if this makes no sense, I apologize. But, he could be doing this because of his aggressive nature, especially pre flop. Do you have any non-statistical reads on this guy?

Furthermore, he has a 2.0 post-flop AF, so he is fairly aggressive.

You were right, you should have led/3-bet/called cap in order to face MP3 with two-cold.

Anyways... that's my random/probably misleading advice.

Why am I not sleeping?

- Zach

A couple of points:

1) UTG's capping range is probably very narrow (AA-QQ and AK)
2) You really underrepresented your hand on the flop

I think you have a fold on teh turn, but I hate doing it because of 2).

I think the best play might have been to just bet/call the flop and fold the turn UI. With UTG's stats, he is not capping with AK nearly as often as AA-QQ. Also, he is not raising the flop with AK after you show so much strength nearly as often as he's raising with AA-QQ. So if he raises, you can safely fold the turn UI.

I could never bring myself to fold KK on this board for 1 bet on the turn.

I think you have to lead the flop there.

Why should I bet out?
Just so I know to fold the turn?

I think he raises AK way to much here for me to fold.

Is it just to charge MP more

I think its a good fold, UTG+1 caps it preflop and mp waits to bump it up on the turn. Probably a set of 6s or 5s and calling 2 here doesnt mean youll get a showdown for 3 all the time.

Looks like you're beat to me, I like the fold.