2/4 9-max (9-handed)

Reads:

BB over 65

MP over 311

Pre-flop: Hero is dealt A K in the CO

folds, MP calls, folds, Hero raises, folds, BB calls, MP calls

Flop: (6.5 SB)

A J 8

BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls

Turn: (4.25 BB)

6

BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets

I was trying to look up his stats and it got folded before I could find them. I really wanted to call.

Against a guy with those stats though, can we consider it?

I'd rather look the guy up.
You're getting basically 9-1 on the turn call. You need to at least call there since you have a decent amount of outs vs his range (board pair, A/K are usually good). Once you get the river I wanna look him up even UI because I think I can see AQ or something else playing this way enough. Also, I would get really really pissed off if I folded and saw him rake the pot in with AQ.

Against a guy with those stats though, can we consider it?

No.

good luck.

yuck

My thoughts exactly, and I had every intention of calling had my timer not run out.

Just for the sake of arguing though, the guy has a 0.65 AF and he just check/raised me. I doubt we are debating that I'm not often behind here. Since I am behind here most of the time, I'm drawing to 0-9 outs.

According to the odds, I'm getting 9:1 (assuming the guy behind me calls) to call on the turn, so I'd need about 4-5 outs for me to call down.

Since this hand is not HU, we don't have as many two pair outs as we think. If BB is calling down with a J, then 3 of our outs are gone. Our outs may be dirty too if BB is on a flush draw or gutshot draw.

I have no idea how to quantify all of these factors. With some frequency, we will be drawing dead. With some frequency, we will have as many as 9 outs. With some frequency, we will be drawing to any number of outs in between, depending on the holding of BB.

I think it may be closer than people are making it out to be.

I have just recently got PT and was wondering which stats are you guys referring to.

thanks in advance

VP$IP/PFR%/AF/# of hands

thanks

are you ZachFcp on party?

Me too. It's awesome, isn't it?

Anyway, the first number is the Voluntarily Put Money In Pot stat (VP$IP). This refers to how often they are playing, and will indicate how tight/loose someone is.

The second number is the Pre-Flop Raise Percentage (PFR%). This number represents how many of the hands they play they are raising pre-flop. This number indicates if a villain is aggressive or passive pre-flop.

The last number represents a compiled Aggression Factor (AF) through each street. This number is represented by the formula (% bet + % raise / % call/check) I believe, but it represents if a villain is aggressive or passive post-flop.

I would recommend auto-rating all of the players in your database and checking the requirements for the auto-rate system (the default rules are fine). This will give you a better idea about what particular stats correspond with particular playing tendencies.

I'm going to pretend that Zach didn't completely answer your question, and that you actually needed a full explanation of each stat, so I don't feel like I wasted my time typing all that out.

Anytime.

I usually call here, he most likely has 2-pair. Then fold the river unless an 8, A, J, 6 or K falls.

yup, fcpjopke?

yep

So what are the averages for different types of players? Aggressive, tight, etc.?



just rated all of my players for teh first time, I hadn't done it because I wasn't sure what rules to use. and did not realize that tehre were default rules

thanks alpha

In the auto-rate menu, if you go to step 2, it'll have all of the pictures of the icons associated with a particular playing style. If you hold the cursor over the settings, it will go into detail about what requirements are needed to fall into each category.

No prob.

I would fold there, but I think it's close.

MP is a passive player. He almost certainly has at least 2-pair.

Some possible hands:
AK- 6
AJ- 6
A8- 6
A6- 6
AA- 1
JJ- 3
88- 3
66- 3
J8s- 2
86s- 2

That's 6 hands we tie, 6 we have 3 outs, 6 we have 6 outs, 6 we have 9 outs, 10 we're drawing dead, and 4 we have 8 outs. On average, against the 32 hands that beat us, we have about 4.3 outs. (AA and JJ should be discounted, but I think 88 and 66 should be emphasized).

So, if we can be sure we'll beat BB, we're getting the right price to peel at about 9 or 10-1 (factoring in implied odds when we hit), and we need to catch MP with a worse hand 10% of the time to justify calling down the river UI getting about 10-1. And I strongly doubt a passive player is check-raising AQ here, or raising a draw against two opponents. Plus, depending on what BB has, we might not even win when we do beat MP.

You have to fold here in my opinion. This guy isn't very aggressive but he's moderately loose. Given that combination, it is almost a certainty that he has two pair or a set. I rule out J8 because he doesn't seem THAT loose. Your best case scenario is that he has A6 or A8, because you would then have 6-9 outs. If he has AJ, you only have 3 outs. If he has a set, you are drawing dead. Because of those other possibilities, you have to discount your outs; I'd say 4, maybe 5. On that basis, especially since a call also commits you to call the river (good old reverse implied odds), you are not getting anywhere near the right odds for this call.

You have to assign at least some probability that we're leading against something like AQ. Not exactly proportionate to the number of combinations in the deck, but you're definitely not _always_ behind

On the side of folding,

You also need to account for hte probability of having a lot of your 'outs' dirty, in the event that the other player calling between has a flush draw, or the pair that you're hoping will counterfeit the villain in question.

Try again

Good catch; I fixed my post.

I think it's a close decision. I'm still leaning towards folding because I think we're almost never ahead (I think AQ is an unlikely holding for MP), and because BB hanging around means we might not win when we do improve to beat MP, plus we're not even closing the action on the turn (although I think a raise from BB is highly unlikely).

You think it's really that bad? An uber-passive guy just check-raised the field in a 3-way pot on the turn. I'd say folding > calling but it's prolly fairly close. I think in a HU pot I'm more inclined to call this down despite the pot being smaller...

MNG makes a good point about BB hanging around. That almost certainly reduces our equity even further.

Jeff

Man...where can I find those default rules. I've had PT for a month and still can't figure it out.

I wouldn't bother.

I had them for a while, but basing your decisions on the numbers without the distraction of the icons is a lot healthier

You also need to account for hte probability of having a lot of your 'outs' dirty, in the event that the other player calling between has a flush draw, or the pair that you're hoping will counterfeit the villain in question.


Maybe they both have AA.

good luck.

... Yeah, I definitely see where you're coming from. Because it's completely unreasonable to expect someone calling with a flush draw or second pair.

I think I have to call down. He could be someone who is playing AQ or AT like this. Plus, you have his stats over 30 hands. I personally don't trust stats like that because the sample is so small that if he gets rags 30 hands in a row, he looks like a nit, where he could be loose, and getting cards below even his loose standards.

I have 311 hands on MP. He's one of the purer passives I have in my database.

Because it's completely unreasonable to expect someone calling with a flush draw or second pair.


No I think we should allways assume our opponents play rationally and that if they're calling we have less outs, if they raise we're behind, and if they bet we should almost allways fold unless we have quads. Even then we should proceed with caution if there's a straight flush draw out there.

good luck.

Are you drunk?

We dont have to believe that they "allways" have something we're vulnerable to for it to be worth giving consideration to.

I feel like a retard.

I can't tell who is advocating folding or calling.

Smash, screech, hotbacon, and Zimmer like calling down.

Me, Abbaddabba, Jeff, and Mr. Nice Guy think that it's pretty close, but a worthy fold.

ok,
I thought Smash said this in reply to "I really want to call down, can I consder it"
But all the followin remarks supported calling, I thought.
Yr End work at work has my brain scrambled.

I'd have to agree with the "check-call" statement here. There is just too much of a chance that you either have him outkicked or that he has a hand like Q 10 (we have no idea how aggressive he is, but this could be a hand he has) and is looking to build the pot with his 12 outer. Although he could have flopped two pair with either A6 or AJ (or A8 on the turn, when he woke up with the raising), you do have outs against those hands (granted not much, but still some outs to the best hand).

The ONLY hand I'd truely fear on the flop would be 66 (or maybe 88, if he's the type who will call down one bet on the flop with an underpair in hope of banging his 16.5-1 set on the turn). But 66 is a hand that would be consistent in cold-calling a pre-flop raise.

However, with two spades and two to a straight on the flop, I wouldn't think he would just check-call your flop bet with 66 or AJ and slowplay those hands, I'd have to concur that he would ram and jam to protect and isolate, as well as the fact that he should know that he would get paid off more by a good top pair by jamming.

Limit Holdem is about rational calls, not laydowns.

I highly doubt we are ahead here very often. Look at his stats. And it's not over 30 hands, it's over 311.

We may have "outs" in a relative sense against MP, but those same outs can just give us a second best hand if it gives BB trips, a flush, etc.

And remember, we are drawing dead if he has a set, which is more likely than him c/ring a holding that I beat.

I highly doubt we are ahead here very often. Look at his stats. And it's not over 30 hands, it's over 311.


Ahead?

We're getting 5 to 1(or whatever, I'm lazy) to show this down. and closing the action on the river.

How is this in any way close?

I expect to lose *most of the time here*. Probably 70% of the time.

Which is much much better than folding.

Losing 2 more BB 70% of the time is bad. Losing this pot all of the time by folding is worse.

good luck.

Folding is pretty bad here, I don't think it's close either. Of course I expect to lose most of the time, but I also expect it to be good once in a while as well. Relying too much on stats is not a good thing, even if statistically he's one of the most passive players, it doesn't mean they're not capable of pulling a braindead move and bluffing or be doing this with legit hands you still beat.

There's been lots of times where I have someone on my PT with VPIP of 10 and AF of .2 3-bet me out of the blinds with 23 offsuit after I raised PF.

Unless you've played enough hands with your opponent where you know with good certainty that he is not capable of doing this with anything less than a set or 2 pair, it's a very very easy call down.