Ok, hold on. Before you flame me, give me a chance.

This won't be a revelation to Daniel Negreanu or probably most people on this site but I used to play tourneys last year all the time without any real consideration for the mathematics of tourneys.

But I was thinking about the math when I saw ZeeJustin go on that crazy run to win the $500,000 tourney. He was constantly in coin flips and you may ask how that is a +EV game. Well, it happens to definitely be a +EV game to play like that.

I've never read Harrington on Holdem so these ideas may be in it or they may not I have no idea. And if you believe I'm wrong then you can express your opinion.

Ok. 180 man SNG on stars. Buyin $20 . 1st is $1000 . 3rd place is about $400 .

Lets say you only get 3rd whenever you amass a lot of chips.

Lets say that your post flop skills are +EV and that you know what you are doing, there.

You start with 1500 chips.

You get in your 1st coin flip at 1500 with KQ vs 22 . All-in preflop.

You win and you go to 3000 chips.

Lets say you get in 4 coinflip scenarios throughout your tourney.

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16

Notice that you spend $20*16 = $320 over the course of these 16 times. This is just slightly less than what 3rd place pays. However, sometimes you will win it all or get 2nd. Everytime you played, you played similar and got in 4 coinflips each time.

So you win 4 coinflips in a row 1 in 16 times. Here is how the coinflips went:

**1500 doubled up = $3000
Now you have 3000

**At 3000 you double up again .
Now you have 6000

** At 6000 , you double up= $12,000

At 12,000 you change strategy somewhat. Now you don't necessarily have to get all-in for all your chips. $6000 chips will do

** At 12,000 you get all-in for $6000 of your chips
Now you have 18,000 and enough to make final table.

So you would pass up the 50/50 coinflip opportunities where the amount of chips to gain would not be enough to double you up.

Mike Matros wrote an article about this issue (I think in Cardplayer) using the double up in a coinflip analyses for MTTs. It was a bit more complete than your analysis, but if youre thinking like him it cant be all bad.

I dont like the analysis, however, for two reasons. First, unless you have AK preflop you rarely know youre in a coinflip, and some of those times (even with AK) you wind up dominated. Second, there arent many players out there who will want to play for 2 hours and get to the final 60 or so, and still employ a strategy that knocks them out 7/8 or 15/16 times..that isnt great for the bankroll or your patience the next time you play.

Note that a strategy where getting into coinflips for 1/2 your stack (if you could control the pot size that well) is far more effective than coinflips for your whole stack. That is the basic reason that you dont want to challenge bigger stacks in marginal situations.

This is especially helpful in rebuy tournaments, where Ive changed my style during the rebuy period, where I look for coinflips (not just accept them if they come along). Once you hit a few and build a stack that dominates the players youve beaten and who have rebought you can continue to look for coinflips against them, because now they dont threaten your whole stack. Its a small sample of course, but this has worked for me well in the four 25k/45k guaranteed tourneys that ive tried it in.

For 180s I dont think you need this strategy. TAG works just fine.

a) you can't always know you're getting it all in on a coinflip

you're not always going to be able to completely double up on coinflips, and there's no reason to think that you'll get action on all your coinflip situations.

c) Matros is way ahead of you.

d) the number of double ups you described is not really enough to get you to a final table, much less to third place.

e) nevertheless, you do bring up a good point. I'm definitely working on being willing to gamble more on coinflips, though I still need practice at identifying them properly.

18000 is definitely enough to make the final table.

Everyone starts with 1500. 1500* 180= 270,000

270000/10 players = 27000 per player average at final table . Ok, so you would be slightly short but you would make up on it with AA vs QQ hands and stuff like that.

The less coinflips you have in making the final table, the greater your profit margin. 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 . If you can do it in 2 coinflips, obviously you will win 2 coinflips in a row 1 in 4 times.

You said that a better strategy would be to get all your money in for 1/2 your stack? I can't see how that would be a better strategy. When pushing small edges, I would think you would want to maximize your profit once you do hit it.

If you have 6000 chips and you call an all-in for 3000 from a smaller stack. You get 9000 chips if you win. Doesn't bring you much closer to the final table. Of course, if you lose, you have 3000 chips now and still a chance but now you have to start the process all over again with increasing blinds. So you are saying that you would get a 2nd chance here if only calling 1/2 your stack? I don't know. That's a very close call I guess. I never thought about that. My concern would be that this cause you to be short stacked against bigger stacks and you would be more likely now to be called by more than one player so you would no longer be doing coinflips any longer.

I will say that I've actually used this strategy to make final tables. This was last year when I didn't even understand the mathematics of it.

Ok, it would be hard to play for 5 hours in a 3000 player tourney and lose it all but if you watch ZeeJustin, he does put all $200,000 chips on the line to advance to final table quite a few times.

Do blinds not exist in your world? The stack in your calculations seems to not absorb blinds at all, despite the fact that over those 3 hours the amount of the blinds summed up together is quite considerable.



If person A has more money than person B, person A is at an advantage at coin flips. Why? Because if they keep flipping till one is out, the person who starts with more money will come out ahead in the long run.

[quote="theredpill99"]

You said that a better strategy would be to get all your money in for 1/2 your stack? I can't see how that would be a better strategy. When pushing small edges, I would think you would want to maximize your profit once you do hit it.

[quote]

I modeled it in Excel with full stack and 1/2 stack commitments and blinds, and 1/2 stack was a clear winner over full stack.

If you want an all-in strategy KillPhil is much better. I'm writing a KillPhil spreadsheet that automatically generates KillPhil strategy for any clicked on pockets.

Slightly off topic but does anybody have the article from Cardplayer that was being referred to?

No but you can search their archive my author, and it was around November I think.

I always get third.

True, which means, if BillyB is in the tourney, that typical $EV calculations must be adjusted to increase the players chances of first and second, providing much better $ odds to play drawing hands.

This could be the unknown secret to 180s! Damn you for sharing it.

If by drawing hands, you mean AJ when I have AQ, or A7 when I have KQ (my latest bust), then yes, any drawing hand will do.

I just realized that the only 180 that I have won, I knocked out the third player with a bet on the river when I was 100% to win. If we had seen the ocean (aka the mythical 6th board card) I would have put decent money he would have caught a 1 outer on me or the like.

Btw, my record is currently a stellar 1-0-8, which speaks to my stellar shorthanded play.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/a...5093&m_id=65576

good read.

I play this sit and go all the time, and have figured out an awesum strategy that works really well in them...Yesterday I played 2 of these tournys and came in 3rd once and 8th the other time. About one in 4 times i play this i make the final table. I've never tried your coinflip strategy but I don't like it. I'm not going to tell you my strategy because you obviously play on them and why would I give my opponent an edge? But you're on the wrong track. If you want to find me and argue about this on pokerstars look up poopsik1962. gl with your coinflips...

I play this sit and go all the time, and have figured out an awesum strategy that works really well in them...Yesterday I played 2 of these tournys and came in 3rd once and 8th the other time. About one in 4 times i play this i make the final table. I've never tried your coinflip strategy but I don't like it. I'm not going to tell you my strategy because you obviously play on them and why would I give my opponent an edge? But you're on the wrong track. If you want to find me and argue about this on pokerstars look up poopsik1962. gl with your coinflips...