$30 MTT; BWoodAllIn was playing very loose; no read on SgtNicks


kilowhat is at seat 0 with 880.
miketauber is at seat 1 with 0 (sitting out).
AEIOwnU is at seat 2 with 3020.
broncsx3 is at seat 3 with 1250.
readysteady is at seat 4 with 1410.
BwoodAllIn is at seat 5 with 6540.
SgtNicks is at seat 6 with 1580.
l000gie is at seat 7 with 1730.
wulffman1 is at seat 8 with 2310.
marken is at seat 9 with 2130.
The button is at seat 1.

AEIOwnU posts the small blind of 15.
broncsx3 posts the big blind of 30.

kilowhat: -- --
AEIOwnU: -- --
broncsx3: -- --
readysteady: -- --
BwoodAllIn: -- --
SgtNicks: -- --
l000gie: Ad As
wulffman1: -- --
marken: -- --

Pre-flop:

readysteady folds. BwoodAllIn calls. SgtNicks
calls. l000gie raises to 150. wulffman1 folds.
marken folds. kilowhat folds. AEIOwnU folds.
broncsx3 folds. BwoodAllIn calls. SgtNicks calls.


Flop (board: 9c 8h 7h):

BwoodAllIn checks. SgtNicks checks. l000gie bets
300. BwoodAllIn folds. SgtNicks raises to 725.
l000gie...

Hmmm....tough one. Still though, I highly doubt he can check raise you with absolute junk. I think there is maybe 50% chance that you need a boat, or the board to pair and not make his full house. That, factored in with the 40% chance that you might be a 2 - 1 favorite or so and 10% chance or so that he's dead to two outs [also an overpair], means he has maybe 55 - 60% chance of having the best hand by the river, which I guess justifies the call here, as there's about 1500 in the pot, and only 425 to call [even if you think the chances of him being the huge favorite is 60% or maybe even as high as 70% the math approximately justifies the call, so unless you really think there's an 80% chance or better he flopped a set or straight...].

Horrible flop for Aces. With his CR he almost certainly has made his set, two pair or flopped the straight. The only other hand I can see CRing here is A9, protecting against the draw.

If he bluffed at it, so you got outplayed once...dont steam if he turns over bottom pair!

As Daniel said in his "Conditional Probability" article in CardPlayer, poker math (what I would call "first level math") isnt enough, you need to look at the Conditional Probabilities ("second level math") based on the action up to that point.