$100k guaranteed on AP

456 started 86 left, 63 cash

avg is about 13k, i have 6500, blinds 400-800 (75)

I have AJ in the SB, pot is 1800 preflop

folded to the cutoff, who has 10k and is a pretty conservative player... who makes it 2400 (standard)

I push


thoughts

I push there also - any decent player will be stealing with a wide range of cards in that spot. As good a time as any to make a move.

I also like the push.

That close to the bubble, a conservative player might not call you with a small or medium pair (again, depends on how conservative he is). Generally conservative players will not gamble while close to the bubble.

Being in late position also increases his range of opening hands, meaning that a large percentage of the time you will be ahead.

A read on CO is critical here. The problem is, why didnt he push, which is the obvious play with a 10k stack. I would probably push in your spot also, but if CO has gotten to 10k by pushing an even shorter stack (so you know he's aware that its the best play in his spot now) I might consider waiting for a better spot. There are too many hands that dominate me if I suspect hes not stealing, and Im only a coinflip in the ones Im not dominated.

Its the HoH "first in vigorish" that youre looking for, and while you dont have the luxury of time, you are in the SB and have a cycle to look for it.

a friend suggested the stop and go method here. Being first to act we could call the 2400 abd push about 4k no matter what the flop is

thoughts

I dont see a stop and go being any better than a preflop push.

You are looking to increase fold equity with a stop and go, and if hes got high cards and rags flop he's got close to the odds he needs to call, so theres no great increase in FE there.

If hes got a small/med pair and high cards flop he is going to wonder what you could have that wasnt worth a push preflop, and its pretty easy to put you on KQ, AJ or AT. If the flop hits any of those you arent really looking for fold equity, you would have preferred to be all in up front

Being close to the money, I think you can throw basic odds formulas out the window, as more people will fold if they dont like their hand even though their getting the right odds.

Having said this, i feel like our post flop FE was far greater then our preflop FE

I think he would have folded AK,AQ, or 66 through 22 after a flop that didnt provide him any help

or maybe im wrong...

I've said it before and I'll say it again here -

Ace Jack is the devil!

You are about to see a lot of hands for free, so that is one reason to not push here pre-flop.
You don't have first-in vigorish, which is another reason to not push here pre-flop.
You say the CO is a conservative player, which means they have a better-than-average hand, which is another reason to not push here pre-flop.

I might have waited... 8)