Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with K:club:, A:spade:.
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 7:spade:, 2:diamond:, K:spade: (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4:spade: (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP calls.

River: (10.50 BB) A:club: (2 players)
Hero bets

No reads on MP. What's our river line now that we've been raised? How's the rest of the hand look?

I think I'm just calling here. If we raise, we'll have to call a cap despite really not wanting to.

Jeff

I would just call. 3-betting is a bit risky.

aren't we ahead 2/3 of the time?

does the LRR mean AA/KK too often here?

There's only 1 combo of each possible.


QJs ?

I'm sure I would just call, 'cause I'm soft like that, but a 3-bet looks good to me.

MP didn't LRR, UTG did... Guess I should have included that UTG I had pegged as an idiot.

my bad.

ok, 3-bet river.
Call cap.

Raise. A set would have raised the turn. I figure that a flush would raise the turn, as well, but who knows if this idiot thinks he's "slow-playing" like he saw Doyle Brunson do it on ESPN. A lot of these 6-maxers are maniacs, so I would raise and put him on A Q . I think we're good.

I'm raising here everyday. Odds are he has a lower 2 pair or a weak ace.

whoever has told u not to three bet is wrong. this is very easy

id love to know how anyone can say not to 3bet here. What does he have that beats us? set- pops it on the turn. flush draw? didnt get there.

3 5- very very unlikely.

A 7- very likely.

A x, 2nd most likely.

A10-AQ is a suprisingly realistic possibility here.

I said don't 3-bet it because the flush did get there on the turn. With position against an aggressive player I'm playing a flush the same as villain. Hell, with any strong hand I'm playing this way against an aggressive villain.

With the flush out it looks like a lose two, win one proposition. If I put in the 2nd bet I'm raising for sure and calling a 3-bet. I just don't like having to call a cap if I'm the one putting in the 3-bet bet.

That said, no more coordinated than this board is, it probably is a 3-bet.

Jeff

sorry mate my bad.

I'll take my analysis back then. Id now say its 50/50 between a flush and a smaller 2 pair. set is also possible.

Problem now with 3 betting is you will get 4 bet if you are beat, whereis if you are ahead you will only get called. Whilst you could make a big laydown if it gets capped, i think its pretty difficult given the potsize. Calling probably isnt too bad here.

With such a thorough and scientific argument, who could argue?

I think it's much closer than "very easy". Here's why...

We can't really put villain on a range. He has only called up until his river raise and we have no reads. Thus, we have only to compute what we beat, what beats us, and what we tie. Here's my take on that:

We beat: 28 combos
---------
A7 = 2*3 = 6
A2 = 2*3 = 6
A4 = 2*3 = 6 (tho i doubt this calls the flop)
AQ = 8 (and i doubt this calls the flop + turn)

Beats us: 45 combos
---------
spades: 13-4 = 9 = c(9,2) = 36
set: 77/22/44 = 3 ea = 9

44 is as likely to call the flop as A4 and AQ above so I include it. Please note that I exclude AA/KK because they are so unlikely based on his PF play. Including those leans this further away from a 3-bet.

We tie: 4 combs
-------
AK = 4

Total = 28+45+4 = 77

EV of river 3-bet:
(28/77)*1 + (45/77)*-2 + (4/77)*0 = -.80 BB

I am very prone to counting combos incorrectly so someone check the above.

Let me go ahead and address some counterarguments I'm sure to hear on this analysis:

1) I shouldn't include all the spade hands.

Yeah, I know including all suited spades is a stretch. So is including A2, A4, and AQ above though. Moreoever, it doesn't matter. Even if you cut the spade hands in half, you
get:

(28/59)*1 + (27/59)*-2 + (4/77)*0 = -.44 BB

You're still not good more than 2/3s of the time.

2) I am not taking into consideration the times when villain has a hand that beats us that he does not cap with.

22 and 56s for example. I think he caps when we're beat the vast majority of the time. Moreover, we're beat 99% of the time that he caps.

3) I don't take into consideration a 3-bet/fold line by Hero.

That's because it would be so retarded as to not be worth addressing. You must call a cap getting 17-1. Anyone who says differently is selling something.

Now, maybe I missed something in the above. Maybe I WAY miscalculated somewhere... but I'm going to go back to my original declaration that this is lose 2 / win 1 and say just call until someone points out the error of my ways.

Jeff

It's still an Ace / AcesUP enough to 3-bet/call cap.

3 way to the flop, we have the A , I tend to not give flush credit with so few seeing the flop.

*** just read Jeff's analysis..

good stuff, but I jsut see too many retards to buy that hand range.
No specific crticism, though..it's Sunday, I try to minimize the math

I would definetly 3-bet because we would have seen a raise on the turn from a set or flush.

Because, UTG acted before MP, and folded, there is no reason for MP to call the turn with a made hand. The 6-max game is full of idiots and I wouldnt be surprised if MP had a naked Ace thinking that you were betting kings the whole time.

I think a lot of people would have raised the turn if they had the non ace high flush. And they can't have the A high flush since I have the key A

I'm getting a ton of mixed reactions here though so I'm not sure what to think. The only thing I do agree with so far is that if we 3-bet we are calling a cap no matter what.

I think a weak flush draw is a definite possibility. He may not re raise the turn waiting to see if another spade falls, or the board pairs. Especially after all the pre flop action, knowing he very well may be up against a set or AK spades himself. I don't hate a three bet, but it would have to be read dependent, knowing that this player is capable of a three bet river with two pair.

Against your average player, calling I think is optimal. It's very important to save bets, gain bets in shorthanded play. This is a tough situation. I think losing two big bets to a cap here is not the way you win in the long run playing short handed. You want to lose the minimum as much as possible.

So without a clear cut answer, I would shy towards calling in these situations.

Just my two cents.

[quote="Bubba83"]I think a lot of people would have raised the turn if they had the non ace high flush. And they can't have the A high flush since I have the key A

I'm getting a ton of mixed reactions here though so I'm not sure what to think. The only thing I do agree with so far is that if we 3-bet we are calling a cap no matter what.[/quote]

i have seen heaps of small flush's ot raised until the river when made on the flop/turn. He either has a flush, set or smaller 2 pair. You can only beat 1 of the three, and will get reraised when he has the other 2. calling is better.

In a multiway pot, I agree 100%. I'm always raising the turn with a small flush to protect it.

In a HU pot with position I would play a small flush or set (with no spade or a small one) exactly this way against an aggressive opponent. The fact of the matter is that the liklihood of you having a hand you're going to pay me off large with is fairly small... so by waiting until the river I get to see if my hand is likely good or if a 4th spade falls and ruins my party.

I'm probably getting the same number of bets from you either way but I lose less when the river steals my pot.

Please note that I'm aware I'm probably giving WAY too much credit to an unknown 2/4 player, but still...

Jeff

too much analysis...

he hit his Ace. He raises.