Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($125.95)
MP ($101.40)
Button ($236.48)
Hero ($182.55)
BB ($98.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with [Jd], [Jc]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds.

Flop: ($9) [6d], [7d], [Jh] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5, Button calls $10.

Turn: ($39) [4c] (2 players)
Hero bets $25, Button calls $25.

River: ($89) [Ac]

I haven't played with villain very long, but he looks solid, and I get the impression he's on the tight side. Anyway, what do you do here when the ace comes off?

Bet the river -- whatever he is likely to call. I suggest doubling your turn bet and throwing out $50. If you are raised, move all-in.

There are three hands that beat you: 58 and 35 for the straight and AA. Based on his raise pre-flop and especially based on your read of your opponent, we can safely rule out the straight hole cards. That leaves AA.

From the fact alone that AA is the only reasonable hand that can beat you, I bet the river with the intention of reraising. Remember that AK will likely raise the river here, hoping to pick off a pair of jacks or QQ and KK (possibly TT?). He cannot put you on as strong a hand as top set on the flop, so he will be raising with a lot of hands that are beat by your set.

Consider this: he has stopped all aggression after his flop bet was raised. He seems to have switched into check/call mode. I think with the flush draw and straight draw out there, he remains aggressive with an overpair (especially AA). Therefore I put his most likely hand on Ax . Obviously we cannot narrow his hand range down too much without a read, but hands like middle pocket pairs (or less likely over pairs) as well as suited connectors could be out there.

In the end, there are far too many holdings that he could raise a river bet with not to justify your moving all-in over top of a possible raise.

Also, if you are certain he will bet the river (eg: busted flush draw or AK) then it is reasonable to check the river with the intention of raising. Nevertheless, you must be quite certain 9say, at least 80% certain) that he will bet the river to make this check justifiable.

I bet $50 hoping to reraise this river.

Cheers,

Merby

OK, doesn't look like I'm getting any more replies here. Anyway, I did exactly what Merby said. I bet $50, got reraised all-in, said to myself "shit, I have to pay this off", and called. He showed me AA for top set.

Anyway, going into the river I felt really sure that I was up against an overpair. The thing is that if I'm up against KK or QQ, I'm not sure that betting out does any better for me than check-calling. KK's going to put me on QQ or a jack when I check the ace and make a big value bet, probably just as often than they'll call a bet from me. QQ, meanwhile will be slightly more likely to pay me off than bet, but the chance of folding is about the same as the chance of betting also. Therefore, the only big difference is when I'm up against AJ or AA. Since I'll lose more than I'll win with AJ, I'm not sure that check-calling wouldn't have been a better line on the river.

Here's what I think the hand range is:

AA (3 hands): Check-calling loses me $50 on average. Bet-calling loses me $138 on average.

KK (6 hands): Check-calling wins me $25 on average. Bet-calling wins me $35 on average.

QQ (6 hands): Check-calling wins me $12 on average. Bet-calling wins me $25 on average.

AJ (3 hands): Check-calling wins me $40 on average. Bet-calling wins me $75 on average.

AKd, AQd (2 hands): Check-calling wins me $35 on average. Bet-calling wins me $50 on average.

All right, so that's pretty close. I guess that against AA, I save $88 x 3 = $264.

Meanwhile, against the rest of the range, I lose $10 x 6 + $13 x 6 + $35 x 2 + $15 x 2 = $238.

Obviously, the results for the given range are pretty subjective, but if they're correct, then I'm saving $26/20 hands = $1.30 a hand. I certainly didn't have time to figure this out at the time, and it's obviously really close, but I do think that check/calling the river might have been just a little bit better. Also, if you widen the range to include hand like KQd, or KJ, there's a good chance that I could catch a bluff from a hand that couldn't call a bet on the river.

In this situation I'd think he has kings or queens, maybe aces based on what you said about the player. When the ace comes, if he has kings or queens by checking the ace will scare him and he'll check. So you'll get no more money. I think a good bet is $30. That's something he'll call. When he goes all in when you bet $50 that's just something you have to pay off. Even if you bet $30 and he did that I think you have to pay off. Otherwise, it is an incredible laydown.

A good analysis, iggy. When it comes down to it, you certainly have to go with your read on the possible hands your opponent could have here, and then look through the possible outcomes.

For me, based the way the hand played out, I'm haveing difficulty putting him on an overpair -- this is where I would run into my difficulty here. Obviously a tight player cen back into check-call mode with an over pair, but most players would probably reraise the flop or raise the turn -- there's just too many draws out there.

It was obvious from the simple fact that you posted this hand that the villian turned over AA in the end and you lost (otherwise, this hand is a nice win with no strategically difficult questions...) Nevertheless, I tried to reply based on the actual way the hand played out and not the inevitable result.

I seriously believe you played this correctly and shouldn't beat yourself up over this hand. A tight player will still raise a lot of other hands on the button pre-flop which make more sense for his check-calling style of play. I think the majority of times a tight opponent plays in this manner on this hand, he is turning over AK ,
Ax , or a pocket pair tens through aces. Since only one of these hands beats you, and the Ax hands probably call your bet (possibly even the KK and QQ hands look you up... but doubtful), I still like the river bet.

Nevertheless, as you worked out, both river options are quite close in the long term EV.

Cheers,

Merby