Merby
Sunday, January 29th, 2006, 4:15 PM
Second hand: Set over set happens so rarely, you really can't "predict"it. You hit a set of sevens, and were just unlucky to run into a larger set. With all the draws on that flop, I also go broke here. I don't know the play or the players, but I assume J9 or 69 is unlikely. Therefore, you are defending against straight draws and flush draws and hoping to catch top pair/overpair/two pair to pay you off nicely.
First Hand: You played it well. Your bet on the turn gave him the wrong price to call with a flush draw. Hence, his call was a mistake and you just got unlucky. Personally, I play this hand
almost exactly like you played it.
The only recommended adjustment is to increase your bet sizes on the flop. I would have put the "feeler bet" at between 1/2 and 2/3 pot (somewhere between $3 to $4 is fine). I also would have increased the size of the flop reraise. You raised $9 to $15-to-go. He therefore had to call $9 to win $36. That is 3-to-1 odds and is a good price for him to stick around
once he factors the implied odds (you bet and reraised him, hence you like your hand -- you are likely to pay him off if he hits his flush, and you have enough chips remaining to make the price to call worthwhile).
About the turn bet: Here, you bet the perfect amount. In my experience, people with nut flush draws will call often call pot-sized bets here (at least they do so all the time at the 1/2 games I like to devour...) Their calls are incorrect and make you money in the long run, but you have to expect the flush draws to frequently stick around.
If, however, you don't want to let them stick around (i.e you're happy with the pot as is...), you can certainly overbet/move in on the turn here to try to price out any draws. Since you have the nuts on the turn, at worst you are up against
A:diamond: J:diamond:, in which case he is frerolling against you.
The problem with the overbet/all-in on the turn, is that it isn't foolproof. The opponent may be more likely to think you're bluffing, or may not put you on the flopped straight. If he only puts you on the king then he would have between 6 and 9 extra outs (two queens and 4 jacks, and possibly the three more aces if you have something like KT) hence he may feel that he still has the outs to call here.
For example, just last Friday, I was playing 1/2 NLHE (live):
Villian A: $50, first to act on flop
Me: $350 (middle position)
Villian B had $300. and was last to act.
I have [b]99
Villian B raises $15-to-go pre-flop and A and I both call.
Flop:
9
5
3
(Pot $45)
(I had flopped top set)
Villian A moves all-in and I move in on top to protect against the flush draw. Villian B thinks for a long time and finally calls, showing
Q
Q
.
Here villian B saw two all-ins and knew the hand would go to showdown. he had an overpair and the third nut flush draw, but still decided to call $285 to win $650 with no remaining pot odds. He had to know that I had a made hand (I had been playing tight so far, had only showed down big hands) and knew he was up againse a set or flush, but still chose to call. I understand this play with the nut flush draw, but ... third nut?
For the curious, the outcome is listed below in "invisible ink", just highlight this post or click quote to read it:
Outcome:
Villian A had 66 with no flush draw. The turn was a 7 of clubs and the river was a ten of hearts, and I rake in the pot
Cheers,
Merby